As a swing voter, I follow independents closely. They’re the election deciders. Forbes/Harris X has a poll taken after the guilty verdict. In 2020 independents gave Biden the white house by voting for him 54-41 over Trump. Prior to the guilty verdict independents were leaning toward Trump by an average of 39-34 with 14% stating they’ll vote third party, 10% undecided. It also independent that most dislike and don’t want neither Trump nor Biden to become the next president.
Here's Forbes/Harris X poll which was taken overnight after the guilty verdict. Check out question H2a: If the 2024 election for president were held today and it was between the following candidates, who would you vote for?
https://uploads-ssl.webflow.com/642...ernight%20Poll%20-%2031%20May%202024.pdfThe good news is there’s a definite shift among independents. From 39-34 Trump over Biden to 33-29 Biden over Trump. But third-party candidates increased from 14 points to 22 points and undecided from 10 to 15 points. Trump has dropped 10 points, but Biden has dropped one. I’ll wait a couple of weeks to ensure this poll isn’t a one off. That Biden has for the first time since September of last year taken the lead among independents.
Even though Biden didn’t increase his voter percentage among independents, perhaps most if not all of Trump’s 10-point drop went to third party candidates or undecided, it’s still addition by subtraction for Biden. A definite plus for old Joe. But this also shows a definite hesitation among independents who most dislike and don’t want neither Trump or Biden as their next president to vote for Biden, instead of Trump it’s voting third party for them or perhaps just staying home. Regardless, if this poll is accurate, I see it as a big plus for Biden.
