I think the avid pro and anti-Trump vote is pretty much set in stone. Nothing that happens is going to change how they’ll vote. Since September of last year Trump has been at 47%, Biden at 45% give or take a point in the two-candidate race. Considering the MOE of plus or minus 3 points, that’s no movement at all.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

The same with the 5-way race, Trump one point either side of 41%, Biden one point either side of 39% since September of last year. The only candidate to fluctuate has been RFK Jr. who started off at 15% and is currently at 10%. But neither Biden nor Trump has picked up any of RFK Jr.’s 5 points he has lost. They’ve gone into the undecided column.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

Will the debate or the guilty verdicts make a difference? I don’t know. If the past 8 months are any indication, probably not. It seems going by the last 8 months that 80% of those who plan on voting have decided between Trump and Biden. Another 15% plan on voting third party against both Trump and Biden leaving but 5% undecided. This has been the steadiest 8 months I ever seen with so little movement one way or the other.

Although Biden never trailed in 2020, he fluctuated between 47-53% over a 8-month period. Trump fluctuated between 40-46%. Biden’s lead over Trump was always between 4-10 points. Undecided’s fluctuated between 10-15%. Third party voters were almost non-existent.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden

I hope you’re right jgw, but I’m having my doubts.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.