If one takes the MOE, margin of error into consideration, most polls are accurate. Forget the horserace numbers as stated in the polls. Look at the MOE which gives you the range which the final results must fall in for the polls to be accurate. Example, today in the 5-way race, Trump is leading Biden by 1.9 points. This with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. Which simply means Trump may be ahead by 4.9 points or behind by 1.1 points or somewhere in-between. If the final results fall within that range for Trump, from a minus 1.1 to a plus of 4.9, that polls are considered accurate. This is why many times I refer to Biden and Trump as being in a basic tie due to the spread being within the MOE of the polls.

In 2020 the polls showed Biden ahead by 7 points, he won by 5 points. Within the MOE, the polls were correct. In 2016 the polls had Hillary ahead by 4 points, she won the popular vote by 2 points. Again, within the MOE which makes the polls accurate. 2012 the polls had Obama winning by a single point, he won by 4 points, actually by 3.8 points which was still within the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. At the outside edge to be sure, but still within the MOE.

Way too many people just look at the actual horserace number. If the final results don’t hit those numbers on the head, the polls were off. They fail to take into consideration the MOE or don’t know anything about it. I hear all the time the polls were wrong for 2016, but they weren’t. I hear from republicans, Trumpers if you will that the polls said Hillary would win and win big. No, they didn’t. The polls said Hillary would win the popular vote by 4 points, which translate into somewhere in-between 1-7 points with the MOE applied. The national polls said nothing about the electoral college. In fact, the state polls showed Clinton with 203 electoral votes, Trump with 164 with the rest in the tossup column due to all the rest being within the MOE. Now if the pundits want to put their spin on who’ll win, that’s on them, not the polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.