Yes, it’s been only about a week since Trump’s guilty verdicts. You do have to give it some time for the polls to catchup to that guilty verdict. Usually 2-3 weeks after a major event, happening takes place. I consider this a major event. But a foreseen one, not an unforeseen one. It’s the unforeseen events, happenings that makes the needle jump all over the place. This guilty verdict was expected by most, perhaps for the most part it had already been baked in. Much like I think abortion has been baked into the equation long before the SCOTUS overturned Roe. But this is me.
I’m not paying any attention to the pro and anti-Trumpers. They’re set in stone as to who they’ll vote for. I’m watching with an eagle eye those who don’t fall into the pro or anti-Trump columns, those who dislike and don’t want neither Trump nor Biden as the next president. Roughly 30% of the electorate. There hasn’t been enough data to get a handle on how the guilty verdicts has affected this latter group. There hasn’t been enough time that has passed for the guilty verdicts to settle in with this group. They’re not political junkies and they don’t pay much attention to national politics. But they will be your election deciders.
Here's your battleground/swing states. The guilty verdicts hasn’t been taken into account. This is pre-hush money standings.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states
