Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

I want Biden to win, really! I would also like him to actually seem to want to win. Really! I can be absolutely wrong. I am in Washington state and he is, I think, working the east coast and a bit of the middle. Not every day but he is out there. I just want the Democrats to be EVERYPLACE! Trump is EVERYPLACE. Through basically through the media who has him on virtually anything to do with politics. Wouldn't it be nice if, every time they gave Trump exposure they did the same for Biden. The interesting thing about the Trump exposure that it isn't always pro Trump and is not at all for Trump. Makes no difference, its the exposure that counts not all the rest (I think that has been decided a while ago).

So, Biden cannot count of the media for exposure so he must either buy his exposure or do something to cause media to give him exposure. If Trump is out there then Biden should be out there too. Its part of the game. I assume that those running the Democratic party understand that but, so far, they have not shown it. For instance, every night CNN and MSNBC give Trump exposure - Biden? not so much, That being the case one would thing that the Dems would see that and somehow make Biden worthy of exposure by the media.

One would think, for instance, that the Dems had a group that did nothing but decided what Biden was going to do to get exposure on the night news. Trump does it naturally, apparently Biden does not and should be. I also think it would probably be easy to do and not take that much time. We keep being told how much money the Dems have, and how well organized they are, etc. I would be a lot happier if I saw the man, on the news, every night.

Last night biden was on the news with somebody from Africa who was going to fix the problems in Haiti. That was a start but, I think, it could have been a bit better. But that's just my thought and the fact that he was out there is a great beginning - hopefully. Perhaps the Dems could also have a group that could give Biden something interesting, a bit off the cuff, and a bit less old man walking as well.

Just saying.............

As a swing voter, I follow independents closely. They’re the election deciders. Forbes/Harris X has a poll taken after the guilty verdict. In 2020 independents gave Biden the white house by voting for him 54-41 over Trump. Prior to the guilty verdict independents were leaning toward Trump by an average of 39-34 with 14% stating they’ll vote third party, 10% undecided. It also independent that most dislike and don’t want neither Trump nor Biden to become the next president.

Here's Forbes/Harris X poll which was taken overnight after the guilty verdict. Check out question H2a: If the 2024 election for president were held today and it was between the following candidates, who would you vote for?

https://uploads-ssl.webflow.com/642...ernight%20Poll%20-%2031%20May%202024.pdf

The good news is there’s a definite shift among independents. From 39-34 Trump over Biden to 33-29 Biden over Trump. But third-party candidates increased from 14 points to 22 points and undecided from 10 to 15 points. Trump has dropped 10 points, but Biden has dropped one. I’ll wait a couple of weeks to ensure this poll isn’t a one off. That Biden has for the first time since September of last year taken the lead among independents.

Even though Biden didn’t increase his voter percentage among independents, perhaps most if not all of Trump’s 10-point drop went to third party candidates or undecided, it’s still addition by subtraction for Biden. A definite plus for old Joe. But this also shows a definite hesitation among independents who most dislike and don’t want neither Trump or Biden as their next president to vote for Biden, instead of Trump it’s voting third party for them or perhaps just staying home. Regardless, if this poll is accurate, I see it as a big plus for Biden.

I'm just curious. I think, after an election, that a pile of poll watchers, seemingly, are upset with just how the polls said this or that but, again seemingly, most of the time they say that this or that poll was wrong. You follow all these polls and, I wonder, are the polls normally right, wrong, or whatever.

As you probably know I follow polls as you report them and, other than that, am truly ignorant of the whole bunch of them (there seems to be a bunch of them). I have favorites amongst those running for this or that but, actually, all I am really interested in is the Trump/Biden thing and what the whole of congress is going to end up as. I am, in other words, pretty lazy when it comes to polls. I am also not particularly interested in 3rd party candidates as, most of the time, that seems like a waste of time as few of them really have all that much to say. There is one we have that has had his entire family state publicly not to vote for him as he is an ignoramus and that's just for starters. I also realize that you think they can decide a close election but that is only if they the followers change their vote. This time, incidentally, there are not all that many 3rd party folks. Oh, there is also the woman who was running against Trump. Have little to say about her. She seemed almost normal and then said she was going to vote for Trump who she really worked over when she was running against. In other words who knows what she stand for!

After thinking on this one a bit I suspect that my beliefs, when it comes to politics, is guess and personal belief. You, on the other hand, are, as far as I can tell dealing with fact. We seem to get along and I just find it kinda interesting.

When looking this over I also have to mention that it also seems I just don't have much of a clue although I am absolutely convinced that if Trump and the White Christians win we are in for serious bad.

If one takes the MOE, margin of error into consideration, most polls are accurate. Forget the horserace numbers as stated in the polls. Look at the MOE which gives you the range which the final results must fall in for the polls to be accurate. Example, today in the 5-way race, Trump is leading Biden by 1.9 points. This with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. Which simply means Trump may be ahead by 4.9 points or behind by 1.1 points or somewhere in-between. If the final results fall within that range for Trump, from a minus 1.1 to a plus of 4.9, that polls are considered accurate. This is why many times I refer to Biden and Trump as being in a basic tie due to the spread being within the MOE of the polls.

In 2020 the polls showed Biden ahead by 7 points, he won by 5 points. Within the MOE, the polls were correct. In 2016 the polls had Hillary ahead by 4 points, she won the popular vote by 2 points. Again, within the MOE which makes the polls accurate. 2012 the polls had Obama winning by a single point, he won by 4 points, actually by 3.8 points which was still within the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. At the outside edge to be sure, but still within the MOE.

Way too many people just look at the actual horserace number. If the final results don’t hit those numbers on the head, the polls were off. They fail to take into consideration the MOE or don’t know anything about it. I hear all the time the polls were wrong for 2016, but they weren’t. I hear from republicans, Trumpers if you will that the polls said Hillary would win and win big. No, they didn’t. The polls said Hillary would win the popular vote by 4 points, which translate into somewhere in-between 1-7 points with the MOE applied. The national polls said nothing about the electoral college. In fact, the state polls showed Clinton with 203 electoral votes, Trump with 164 with the rest in the tossup column due to all the rest being within the MOE. Now if the pundits want to put their spin on who’ll win, that’s on them, not the polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

This morning I was watching the TV news. Most was made up of politics and what our congressional house was doing (basically ranking on the federal law stuff). I found it very strange. The Republican house was, basically, attacking the DOJ because they were responsible for the conviction of Trump by a state DOJ which had nothing to do with the federal DOJ. Whilst they were doing that the Democrats were asking questions which tended to show how wonderful, federal, etc. the federal DOJ really is. I just didn't get the entire thing. One would think, for instance that the Democrats of the house would be attacking the Republican jackasses with all they could and there was a lot to work with from the Republican side. Instead all that bluster, lies, accusations, etc. were completely ignored by the Democrats. Again, I just don't get it.

The TV was covering the entire thing, lock and stock. Not missing a thing and it went on, and on, and on. Basically the Republicans were getting most of the show as they were more entertaining! The Democrats, on the other hand, were not particularly interesting so were kinda ignored and this went on for hours! I guess I have a question - why in the world didn't the Democrats take advantage? They had a REALLY good chance to point out the Lies, Baloney, etc. that the Republicans were selling yet they just ignored it like good little Dems tend to do. I have, up to this point been whining about Biden. Now, however, I would like to include the Democratic sitting group who are determined to behave and allow the other side to Accuse and Lie with impunity.

I should add that most of what I watched had to do with the Trump thing they also had another hearing on the good old days of Covid. The Republicans ignored the fact that several thousands of Republicans virtually committed suicide because they were advised by Trump. They attacked anybody who was not in tune with Trump and the trump belief that drinking bleach made you well (it didn't it killed). That went on for a long time. The Dems asking nice questions and the Republicans going off on odd and strange. One would think that the Dems would go after them tooth and tong just remembering the disaster that Trump was in charge of. But, nope, not a damned word! The Republicans got to tell lies and make accusations and the Dems, well, they kinda missed it I guess.

I find it interesting that the Republicans take full advantage to spew their baloney, attack our system of justice, the other side, etc. whilst the civilized Dems seem to sigh, say nice things, ignore what's going on the other side. etc. They know that the TV cameras are running and they behave as if its a real opportunity to show what nice people they are whilst making sure the Republicans get their points made.

Don't know what else to say.................

Today, corporations own the news outlets, the media. Corporation are in the news business to make money. Outrageousness, sensationalism, crime, sex, gore, insanity and the like is what sells newspapers and attracts viewers to the news. The more viewership, the more these corporations can charge for their commercials, the more money they make. Why not Trump and republicans all the time on the news? He and they are outrageous, people love them or hate them, but they attract attention, people tune into see what new outrageous, insane thing they did or will do next. Something a low-key announcement from the white house on the border which just happened, doesn’t.

I didn’t see what you saw, but it follows the outrageousness, sensationalism, the attention grabber that these corporations want in their news to attract viewership, sell more newspapers, make more money. Democrats and Biden are way too stoic. They’re the statue vs. the exotic dancer.

You are right about how to be on TV. I have claimed, for literally years, that we have Trump because he was entertaining. I remember when somebody who ran one of the shows said that he was a real money maker and people loved him and he would show him any way he could. Didn't surprise me then and doesn't surprise me now. The problem, when it comes to TV and Politics is that neither has a damned thing to do with whether they are going to be on TV. The only real way to get on TV is entertain, one way or another is to entertain, or otherwise attract others. We are closing into to an election so more are watching these days. They get to see both sides, etc. The simple fact is that the Republican side seems to be more entertaining, etc. The Democrat side just doesn't seem to care.

The Republicans have it down pat. Trump was first. He figured it out and now we have Trump. Folks love watching him and media loves showing him. He works for nothing (after his show), and loved being on TV. We basically have a Trump because media literally gave him to us! Hell, they are still doing it! My problem with it all is that I do not want him for President. We need the Democrats, and we are told they have the money. I would like the Democrats to figure out how to spend some of that that money to get some of theirs on TV and try to make Biden president.

So far I have seen a couple of instances but not enough. I don't understand the Democratic members of the House who just do not seem to be on TV or try to help their party help to get their candidate elected. Instead they seem to just doing their job. The Republicans, on the other side, are not interested as doing their job at all. They are only interested in making sure their Lord and Master, is treated correctly. When was the last time anybody has seen a Democrat even mention a Republican not not their job? The current crop of Republicans have done less than any other in the history of the nation - nobody mentions that either.

We live in strange and interesting times.

Exactly jgw. Trump used his outrageousness to dominate TV news in 2016. Entertaining is one way to put it. But he was always the lead story relegating Clinton to the final couple of minutes. Trump, like that old showman truly believed there’s no such thing as bad publicity, no publicity is bad. 2020 COVID put a damper on Trump hogging the spotlight on the TV news. But with no COVID, Trump is back being the only attraction, leading off every news cast with really nothing about Biden at all. Biden may be president, but Trump dominates TV news.

The money race, Biden has a big lead in campaign committee money, but Trump has the edge in outside money. Overall Biden 306 million, Trump 244 million. RFK Jr. for an independent isn’t doing bad, 95 million.

https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race

Just think for a moment, how interesting the "News" is going to be once Trump wins!!!

Sarcasm? I’m not too sure he will. True, it’s been a 50-50 race since last year. It’s still 50-50 as to who wins today. I’ve said before that the democrats nominated probably the only candidate that could possibly lose to Trump in this geriatric rematch of an election. I stand by that statement. The reverse is also true, the republicans have nominated their only candidate that could possibly lose to Biden.

No sitting president with an overall job approval of below 50% has ever won. Biden is sitting at 40%. Not Ford, 45% in 1976, not Carter 39% in 1980, not G.H.W. Bush 43% in 1992 nor Trump at 41% in 2020. You have 59% of all Americans who didn’t want Biden to run for reelection, 57% who don’t want Trump to run again either. You have 49% of all Americans who would replace both, both Trump and Biden on the ballot if they could. That’s replace both, not keep one or the other. You have two candidates who most Americans view in a negative light, 57% view Biden unfavorably, 56% view Trump unfavorably. Only one presidential candidate since 1948 has won the presidency with more than 50% of Americans viewing him in a negative/unfavorable manner. That election was 2016 when Trump was viewed by 60% of all Americans unfavorably, but Clinton the loser was also viewed by 56% of all Americans unfavorably. One or the other had to win. Clinton did win the popular vote. This year, either Biden or Trump must win. All of this shows why this upcoming geriatric rematch is a 50-50 proposition.