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Guilty X 34

Good to see you Schlacky! I've been on vaca in Chicago and I missed your posting.

I tend to believe has, right now, the votes that he is going to get and I its gonna be difficult to find any more. I also think there are a lot of votes just floating around awaiting use. If I am right I also suspect that your polls will, eventually show something like that but, then again maybe not (being a bit careful due to an inability to have a clue).

I also think that the debates continue to be closer and closer. I also suspect that there are a lot of folks awaiting the debates before they make their decision. I will be particularly interested in what each candidate will have to say about the other that actually will contain something true about the debate itself. I fully expect, for instance, that Trump will accuse Biden of all sorts of things that will absolutely be false. One of the things about Trump is that one can always be sure the man will lie as its what he does. I suspect even many if those who support him will even expect that to happen. I also believe that many who support Trump admire his ability to lie. I realize this is crazy but I actually believe that is a fact. When it comes to what those supporting Trump it is, for me, very difficult to actually believe what the supporters say. The simple fact is that its just the way it is. I find it interesting in that there is a lot of stuff, when it comes to politics, that just make no sense but still exist. I think its actually part of the deal.

Anyway, I expect not much of a difference in anything until after the next debate. Then, I expect, changes - we will all see and, perhaps, a lot are going to make decisions that will not be understood even by those others that support and don't tell anybody why (its a secret).

part of the deal - I guess?

I think you’re putting too much faith in the debates jgw. What I found is most of those who watch the debates have their minds made up before the debates begin. They tune in to root on the candidate they want to win or are voting for. Very few undecideds will tune in. They too busy watching their favorite TV programs, their favorite sports team, doing other things. You can go back through all the polls, pre-debate vs. post-debate, the numbers didn’t change much outside of the normal ups and downs. The pundits, political reporters and talk show hosts make a great big deal about the debates. I just don’t see it, didn’t see where the debates caused any significant change in the poll numbers going way back. Maybe I’ll be wrong this time around. Let’s hope so, but I doubt it.

Decent folks don't root for a guy convicted of 34 felonies, who sleeps with porn stars while their wife is nursing a newborn. I'm just saying.

Well, we are starting to come closer and closer to not only the debates but the actual elections as well. Trump is getting better and better talking about who, and what, he is going after. This is, hopefully, and he is scaring the hell out of those that pay attention which may, in the long run, be a good thing? In other words he is no longer the fuzzy guy that's fun to watch. He is, obviously, sure of being elected as well so feels he has the voters and he can goto work telling everybody what they are waiting for.

As far as the debates go I think they may make a difference. We will see about that in close to 2 weeks. I really want to see if they actually have control over the microphones (which would be a miracle). Remember too, the hard core folks, who have their minds REALLY made up will also be watching the debates as well. If Trump keeps it up I think there might be a chance to change a couple of minds.

In any case we will all watch the 'debates' with bated breath and have much to talk about the day after.

Oh, My hope is showing, not too much, but a little bit. Apologies.........

You would think you're right on this one. The problem is that those that are Trumpites simply don't care, not even a little bit. Its part of the deal. I have often wondered how many of the true believers have experience with the law and prisons given their lack of concern. I suspect that they have Trump down as the Bad Ass Guy Who Gets Things Done! He may have had problems with the law but its just part of what makes him great!

I could go on and on but, basically, I betcha you understand.

Unlike previous debates, I think this one may have an impact. The doubts that people have about each of the candidates will be highlighted there. Trump, as you noted, is become more strident in his fascist sentiments and retribution narrative. That, I think, is turning off independents and the rump "reasonable Republicans". His convictions are also having an impact. Trump’s conviction may be hurting him — but it’s early (538/abc)
"Four pollsters have already conducted national polls of the 2024 presidential election entirely since Trump was found guilty, and a handful more have asked about the verdict but not the election explicitly. They show that Americans are taking the verdict seriously, and it may be giving President Joe Biden a small boost in support. However, it’s still too early to draw any definitive conclusions." I think, like Trump's corrosive effect on the social scene, this is going to drain enthusiasm from support.

I also think the narrative of Biden's age is still present - he does walk old, and his articulation has never been sharp, but is affected no question - but his mind is sharp and his wit is present. Of course, the most important aspects are, his heart is in the right place, his policies are effective, and he is the opposite of a fascist. (Even though his surviving son is the subject of a political prosecution, he is putting his faith in an impartial jury instead of bombast, abuse of the system, and denigrating all of the participants.) That, I think, will come out in the debate. I just hope he doesn't stumble on the way to the lectern.

In 2016 I could never understand the love affair folks had with Trump. I understood why they viewed Hillary in a bad light, but love Trump. No way. 8 years later, I still can’t fathom why so many put Trump on the pedestal. Again, I understand the part of a lot of folks not liking nor wanting Biden. That is normal politics for a sitting president with a very low job approval number.

Your explanation jgw probably comes the closest. But outside of the tax cuts, Trump didn’t accomplish a thing. At least legislative wise.

I am still wedded to the concept of democracy and that seems to be coming through in the undercard events: Democratic women are overperforming in 2024 primaries; Republicans lag behind (538/abc)

"Today, Democratic women make up 41 percent and Republican women make up just 15 percent of their respective parties' members of Congress. And of the 12 female governors currently serving, eight are Democrats."
....
"As we have for past primaries, 538 is collecting a trove of demographic and political information (such as endorsements, race and ethnicity, and gender) for every major-party candidate running for Senate, House or governor in the 2024 election cycle. This update takes a look at where women have run, and where women have won, in these primaries through May 21.* Our analysis of this data shows that the overall share of women running and winning in primaries thus far in 2024 is slightly lower than it was at the close of the 2022 primary cycle. But there's a notable partisan split: Democrats are nearly keeping pace with the previous cycle, while Republicans seem to be passing up opportunities to add more women to their ranks."

I think the decision in Dobbs is having a significant impact. In addition, I think that there continues to be an upswell of democratic feeling - protection of our basic standards - that will continue to propel Democratic candidates in the general election. “We don’t want just the veneer of a democracy” (PBS)

It's more than a love affair. They have found someone who comes as close to David Duke to saying the quiet part out loud ... yeah he is a bigot ... he's proud of it ... and that has embolden them.

The proof to that claim is fairly straight forward. Consider all the Republican candidates. They all stand for the same policies whether on immigration, fiscal, or economic issues, so what separates Trump from the rest? The driving force of the BASE .... bigotry. He comes the closest to saying it out loud. Think of Gov DeSantis. He has come closest to actually enacting prohibitive legislation targeting sexual orientation, book banning, companies, schools, etc which do not toe the line on a whole host of conservative issues and yet he would be lucky to be elected dogcatcher. What's the difference? He won't say it out loud. You gotta be the voice of their bigotry. You gotta tell them they aren't bigots. Had Gov DeSantis simply said there are fine people who are white supremacists, he would have been in contention, and he had the legislative receipts to support it.

Elected Republicans are onboard with Trump because they know the BASE will not tolerate people who recognize their bigotry. Big Business doesn't care about the bigotry but they know Republicans will lower taxes, so they don't care. All they have to do is not incite the BASE.

What makes all of this dangerous is the BASE only knows one part of the Constitution ... 2nd Amendment. The rest they don't care about, and in fact they would be good with a dictator if it were Trump ... the one person who had the audacity to say it out loud ... white supremacists are fine people ... which makes Nazis fine people.

Once you peel back all the rationalizations, the only thing left is bigotry.