It’s called party loyalty, rporter. Since 2000 in both the midterms and presidential elections, both major parties have average 93% voting for their candidates, 6% for the opposition party’s candidates, 1% third party. As for the timing of the trial, that was due to Trump’s delaying tactics. Trump and his lawyers have done everything possible to delay the start of these trials until after the election. The blame falls squarely and solely on Trump for the timing. Without Trump’s delaying tactics we probably would have had at least 3 of the trials already if not all 4.
What I find most interesting is comparing voter intent this year to how the two major parties voted in 2020 and 2016.
2016 Republicans 88% Trump, 8% Clinton, 4% third party, Democrats 8% Trump, 89% Clinton 3% third party. Independents, 46% Trump, 42% Clinton 12% third party.
2020 Republicans 94% Trump, 6% Biden, 0% third party, Democrats 5% Trump, 94% Biden, 1% third party, independents 41% Trump, 54% Biden, 5% third party.
2024 voter intent Republicans 88% Trump, 3% Biden, 4% third party, 5% undecided. Democrats 2% Trump, 89% Biden, 4% third party, 5% undecided. Independents 38% Trump, 34% Biden, 15% third party, 13% undecided.
If history is a guide, most of those 5% undecided for both major parties will vote for their party’s nominee bringing their party’s vote back up to the 93% historical average. What really stands out is how this year much more resembles 2016 than 2020. Especially with independents and those planning on voting third-party vote.
