You’re right about local vs. national in the state contests. We really haven’t seen the normal fulgurations in the horserace numbers since September of last year. They’ve been steady, constant, even after the guilty verdicts in the hush money case. I’m not so sure about the reverse coat tails though. Biden didn’t have any coat tails at all in 2020, in fact the democrats lost 13 house seats. What I’m watching is Biden’s job approval numbers and the favorable/unfavorable of both Trump and Biden. No sitting president has ever won reelection with a job approval below 50%. Not Ford in 1976, not Carter in 1980, not G.H.W. Bush in 1992 nor Trump in 2020. Could Biden be the first? He’s currently sits at 39.6% job approval/55.9% disapproval.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/approval-rating

Also since 1956, the presidential candidate with the highest favorable has won with one lone exception 2016. Even then Clinton won the popular vote. Biden is currently at 40.9% favorable/55.5% unfavorable. Trump at 42.8% favorable/54.1% unfavorable. As close as this is, it’s a wash.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/political-leaders

Normally, I’d say Biden would be headed to a huge loss with his numbers. But the saving grace for Biden is his opponent is Trump. This could and probably is an election where the historical standards don’t apply. Especially since both major party candidates are so disliked and unwanted by most Americans. What could be the deciding factor is once the campaign season begins in earnest, after Labor Day. The voters will get a chance to see Trump in all his obnoxious, uncouth, vengeful glory, to remind the voters why they voted him out in 2020. I could be wrong about that; I was totally wrong in thinking all Trump’s legal problems to include the guilty verdicts in the hush money case would move the numbers. None of that has happened. I also keep saying give it more time, but more time has passed, and the numbers remain basically the same.

The good news about all those democratic senate candidates in the lead, it gives the democrats a chance of retaining the senate. West Virginia is a goner, that means it’s a 50-50 senate. Montana, Tester vs. Sheehy is the race that will decide whether it’s 51-49 GOP or 50-50 with VP Harris once again casting the deciding vote. All other senate races seem destined to remain with the party that now holds them.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.