Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

I would be a lot happier if Trump lost. If that happened then all the charges would be dealt with in a courtroom and THAT would entertain. Given the charges I also suspect that he would be found guilty and would not be surprised if prison would be around the corner for him. This is also a good reason for Trump to do EVERYTHING/ANYTHING to make sure he wins which also means that the Dems would be smart to make sure everything is done correctly as his minions are capable, I am sure, to do what ever it takes to keep their lord and master in power.

For now, I will keep on hoping. Oh, RKF - he got a female contributor with big bucks. I think he is also going to make her his vice president. (bit of humor as well!)

Remember, Trump has already said that he is going to go after everybody who does not treat him properly. This being the case there may actually be a lot fewer bits of news which may be interesting when it comes to Trump.

This is something to ponder. Americans Are Leaving Both Parties. This Colorado City Shows Why.
America has more independent voters than Democrats or Republicans. Are they changing American politics?

https://www.politico.com/news/magaz...-dd93-ad7f-f91785eb0001&nlid=2728662

Does not surprise me. I understand why the Republicans are Republicans. Pretty simple, Trump is their man and their leader and the source of everything political. Oh, there are also a lot of Republicans who don't like Mr. Trump so ignore the present Republican party but still think they are Republicsns. So, I guess, its actually not as simple as I thought.

The Democrats, however, has a different thing going on. We have a president, which most of us agree has been able to do some pretty amazing things while in office. The problem is has also done some things that are not good sense, or make no sense, etc. (the Israel, for me is one of them things). But the president, I don't think, runs the Democratic party. I actually am not sure just who, or what, drives the party. There was a time when the left was kinda in charge, and other times when they were not. If one is a Democrat I always wonder what kind of Democrat that might be. Are you to the right or to the left? This just goes on and on. I am a Democrat, basically, because my wife worked for them to get through college and remains a steadfast Democrat (for the most part but not always).

So, if you are a Republican you know, exactly, what its all about (Trump). If you are a Democrat its a lot different and there are many reasons to be a Democrat. Its kinda like a "something for everybody" sort of place. The problem becomes who, or what, to do follow or like, etc. Being a Democrat is, basically, completely different from the Republicans. If somebody leaves it means that the Democrats simply do not currently have what somebody needs. Its that easy and that hard.

Not sure if that makes any sense at all but i try!!

I think it does jgw, make sense. I always felt that it wasn’t Biden driving the train, it was the democrats in congress. It seemed to me, for what that is worth, that the agenda came from congress, Biden was just going along. LBJ set the agenda and made congress follow him. Jimmy Carter was more of a follower to congress. Reagan set the agenda when he was president. Bill Clinton used triangulation, but he set the agenda. A bit more subtle than LBJ or even Reagan. Obama was a leader, short and sweet. Biden seems to be just there.

I’d say Pelosi drove the democratic train during Biden’s first two years with help from Schumer and Harris over in the senate. The democrats seem to be rudderless without Pelosi. I can’t remember when Biden ever came out to push for legislation. At least not in the fashion of LBJ, Reagan, Bill Clinton, he had his own way and brand of leadership or Obama.

Would it be fair to say that Biden hasn’t been a take charge guy? Not in the way I remember LBJ, Reagan, Bill Clinton or Obama. Everyone knew they were the leader of the Democratic Party much like everyone knows Trump is the leader of the Republican Party today. Maybe this year, Americans are looking for a strong leader, perhaps even a corrupt, convicted one which may or may not explain the tie between Trump and Biden. Let me direct you to question 18 and 20. 18. Biden Leadership Abilities -Would you say Joe Biden is a strong or a weak leader? 12% very strong, 24% somewhat strong, 19% somewhat weak, 45% very weak. Only 29% of Democrats think Biden is a very strong leader. 20. Trump Leadership Abilities - Would you say Donald Trump is a strong or a weak leader? 34% very strong, 24% somewhat strong, 11% somewhat weak, 32% very weak. 70% of republicans view Trump as a very strong leader with another 24% as somewhat strong which may explain why republicans support Trump even with his corruption and convictions. Independents which went for Biden 54-41 in 2020 are today leaning toward Trump, only 4% of independents view Biden as a very strong leader/50% very weak while 30% view Trump as being a very strong leader/27% very weak.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_5ePXwWM.pdf

"America has more independent voters"

It is ashamed we are at an inflection point in political history. Should a 3rd party (or more parties) acquire significant voters at this time, Trump would win the election, as the election would be thrown into the House where MAGA rules.

It appears in every scenario Trump wins.

The 35-35-30 percentages is where things still stand today, where they stood a month ago, six months ago and further back. That is 35% solidly Trump, call them MAGA. 35% solidly Biden where over half aren’t voting for Biden as a person, candidate. They’re more anti-Trump than pro-Biden. Any candidate other than Trump would get their vote. Then 30% who aren’t either pro or anti Trump, who dislike both and don’t want neither Trump nor Biden to become the next president.

Only one other election comes close to matching the feelings out there about both major party candidates. That was in 2016. We’ve come a long way from this, 2008 where Obama was viewed favorably by 61% and McCain by 57%.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/111439/obama-mccain-two-bestliked-candidates.aspx

To this, this year where Biden is viewed favorably by 41% and Trump by 43%.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/political-leaders

With 2016 along the way, Clinton 43% favorable, Trump 39% favorable.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l37rosbwjp/econTabReport_lv.pdf

Party affiliation 2008 35% democratic, 30% republican, 33% independent
2016 32% democratic, 28% republican, 36% independent
2024 today 27% democratic, 27% republican, 43% independent

Down ballot Democrats, senate candidates are outperforming Biden in their states by 10 or more points.

Examples, Arizona -Gallego up by 5 over Lake, Trump up by 4.4 over Biden.
Pennsylvania Casey up by 7 over McCormick, Trump up by 2.3 over Biden.
Ohio Brown up by 5 over Moreno, Trump up by 7 over Biden
Michigan Slotkin up by 4 over Rogers, Trump up by 0.3 over Biden
Wisconsin Baldwin up by 12 over Hovde, Trump by 0.1 over Biden
Nevada Rosen up by 14 over Brown, Trump by 5.3 over Biden

What all these states have in common is the democratic senate candidate is leading their republican rival, all outside the MOE with a couple leading by 10 points or more while Biden is trailing Trump. A couple of weeks ago I spoke of Biden’s labilities, I suggest by looking at the above that those liabilities are for real. Usually the down ballot candidates hope to ride the presidential candidates coat tails to a win. In this case, it is Biden that may have to hope he’s able to ride the down ballot democrats coat tails to a win in their states.

Why Senate Democrats Are Outperforming Biden in Key States

https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-senate-democrats-outperforming-biden-113401743.html

This is normal, actually. It's the local over national issue - in every election. Congressional incumbents always, always, always outperform Presidential incumbents. It's why they are re-elected over and over again. But, there is a carry-over effect in the voting booth. Usually is it referred to as the "coattails" effect - a presidential candidate pulling "down ballot" candidates over the line, but it works both ways. In this election, those State candidates - and ballot measures - are going to bring voters to the voting booth. When they get there, they are going to be thinking about the other races and make their decision - usually in conformity with how they voted on their motivating issues.

Trump does not inspire coattails - indeed, the opposite. In many States local Republicans also outperformed Trump in 2020. I'm not surprised at all. But, the real numbers are actually better for Biden than the polls indicate. It's not that he doesn't have anything to worry about - he does - but that the polls are not really telling a meaningful story, and the press even less so.

You’re right about local vs. national in the state contests. We really haven’t seen the normal fulgurations in the horserace numbers since September of last year. They’ve been steady, constant, even after the guilty verdicts in the hush money case. I’m not so sure about the reverse coat tails though. Biden didn’t have any coat tails at all in 2020, in fact the democrats lost 13 house seats. What I’m watching is Biden’s job approval numbers and the favorable/unfavorable of both Trump and Biden. No sitting president has ever won reelection with a job approval below 50%. Not Ford in 1976, not Carter in 1980, not G.H.W. Bush in 1992 nor Trump in 2020. Could Biden be the first? He’s currently sits at 39.6% job approval/55.9% disapproval.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/approval-rating

Also since 1956, the presidential candidate with the highest favorable has won with one lone exception 2016. Even then Clinton won the popular vote. Biden is currently at 40.9% favorable/55.5% unfavorable. Trump at 42.8% favorable/54.1% unfavorable. As close as this is, it’s a wash.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/political-leaders

Normally, I’d say Biden would be headed to a huge loss with his numbers. But the saving grace for Biden is his opponent is Trump. This could and probably is an election where the historical standards don’t apply. Especially since both major party candidates are so disliked and unwanted by most Americans. What could be the deciding factor is once the campaign season begins in earnest, after Labor Day. The voters will get a chance to see Trump in all his obnoxious, uncouth, vengeful glory, to remind the voters why they voted him out in 2020. I could be wrong about that; I was totally wrong in thinking all Trump’s legal problems to include the guilty verdicts in the hush money case would move the numbers. None of that has happened. I also keep saying give it more time, but more time has passed, and the numbers remain basically the same.

The good news about all those democratic senate candidates in the lead, it gives the democrats a chance of retaining the senate. West Virginia is a goner, that means it’s a 50-50 senate. Montana, Tester vs. Sheehy is the race that will decide whether it’s 51-49 GOP or 50-50 with VP Harris once again casting the deciding vote. All other senate races seem destined to remain with the party that now holds them.