I agree rick that most of those blacks in the 15% vote third party column will return to Biden by election day. Probably more than half if not three-quarters. Another poll which breaks down the electorate via party, race, age etc. show Biden ahead among blacks 61-12 over Trump. In 2020 Biden won blacks 87-12 with but 1% voting third party. It’s seems Trump still has retained his 12% from 2020, while Biden has a 26-point climb to get back to where he was back then. Trump’s 12% of the black vote was the most for any republican presidential candidate since Gerald Ford received 15% back in 1976. In fact, republican presidential candidates have been climbing among blacks from 4% in 2008, to 6% in 2012 to 8% in 2016 to 12% in 2020.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-resultshttps://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_maqVHQt.pdfThe problem is we don’t know how large or small voter turnout this year will be. Although we can compare today’s enthusiasm in voting for the presidency to 2020 when 62% turned out, the most since 1960 when 63% turned out. Among blacks this year, only 35% of extremely or very enthusiastic, 46% not too or not at all enthusiastic about voting in the presidential election. In 2020, 72% of blacks were either extremely or very enthusiastic vs. 22% who were not too or not enthusiastic at all. This mirrors the nation at large, everyone.
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/nzc8dt85gn/econTabReport.pdfI suppose the bottom line is very few people are excited this year about their choices or voting. That is if they’re not avid pro or anti-Trump. In fact 51% of the 40% who today say they’re voting for Biden are anti-Trump, not pro-Biden. They just want Trump to lose. They could care less about Biden. 48% are voting for Biden, these want Biden to win, to be reelected. Of the 42% who state they’re going to vote for Trump, 67% are for Trump, he’s the candidate they want to win. 32% are voting against Biden, the candidate they want to lose.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-steinDoes the reason behind the vote matter, probably not as long as they vote? But in the last two presidential elections, the anti-vote or those who just vote against a candidate, not for any candidate, who wins was irrelevant as long as the candidate they’re voting against loses. The anti-voters decided who became president. 2016 Trump won the anti-vote, those who just voted against a candidate, not for any candidate 50-39 over Clinton with 11% voting third party as they were anti-both. 2020 Biden won the anti-vote 68-30 over Trump. In 2016 26% of those who voted were anti-voters, 24% in 2020. Today the anti-voters are voting for Biden 51-32 over Trump, a much smaller margin than in 2020 with the 17% voting third party against both Biden and Trump.
Conclusion, Biden doesn’t excite those voting for him, but being anti-Trump does. With Trump, it’s Trump himself that excites his voters, not being against Biden.
