I agree Rick, voter turnout to be lower than 2020 and the third party vote higher. 2024 has more in common with 2016, 54% voter turnout,137 million than 2020, 62% voter turnout, 160 million. Enthusiasm to vote in this year’s presidential election 43% enthusiastic, 39% not enthusiastic vs. 2020 76% enthusiastic, 12% not enthusiastic vs. 2016 42% enthusiastic, 44% not enthusiastic. What 2016 and 2024 have in common is the dislike and unwantedness of both major party candidates. You can compare the candidates favorable/unfavorable to keep it simple. 2016 Clinton 38% favorable/56% unfavorable, Trump 36% favorable/60% unfavorable to 2024, today, Biden 40% favorable, 56% unfavorable, Trump 42% favorable/54% unfavorable.
As for not voting, you weren’t alone. Many didn’t bother to vote in 2016 due to their dislike and unwantedness of both major party candidates. One vote out of 137 million wasn’t about to make a difference. A high third-party vote, 6.0% also happened. That 6% was the highest since Ross Perot. In 2020 only 1.7% voted third party. Since 2000 the third-party vote has been below 2% with 2016 being the lone exception at 6%. I voted for Johnson in 2016, to be more honest, it was a vote against both Trump and Clinton. I was disgusted with both of them.
I wouldn’t use the word disgust this year, but the dislike and unwantedness of both major party candidates this year is very real. For very different reasons for sure. But it’s there. I’d place this at roughly a third of the electorate. One could classify this latter third as the who cares who wins or loses election since they dislike and don’t want neither one to be the next president. They want two different candidates other than Biden and Trump. That’s not going to happen. According to the polls so far, staying home, not voting is the option most of this latter third are planning on taking. Hence the low voter turnout prediction. Which raises the question, which candidate, Biden or Trump will a low voter turnout help the most?
