You sound very pessimistic. Although there are reasons to be pessimistic with Biden as the democratic nominee. With how America as a whole view and feel about Biden, his numbers, in the past he’d be a sure loser. But his opponent is Trump which redeems, enhances Biden’s chances, perhaps by a lot. This is still a 50-50 race. I have always been of the opinion that almost any other democrat than Biden would be trouncing Trump. The reverse is also true, that almost any other republican would be whipping Biden by 10 points or more.
The numbers between them are almost equal in every category. How Americans view them, both are around 40% favorable/56% unfavorable. About running for the presidency again, around 58% of all Americans don’t want either one to be running again, give or take a point or two. Almost half of all Americans would replace both on the ballot if they could. Not keep one and replace the other, it’s replace both. Biden overall job approval is at 40%, Trump’s was at 43% when he lost in 2020. Trump has his tons of legal problems; Biden has his age and the doubt about his mental acuity. Trump has been at roughly 42% in the polls which include third party candidates, Biden at 40%, again give or take a point or two since September of last year.
Both are below the historical average of 93% of their party’s faithful voting for them in the polls, Biden getting 86% of the democratic vote, Trump 87% of republican. But those party’s faithful aren’t voting for the other major party’s candidate, they’re voting third party, roughly 6% for both parties and undecided 4%. Only 2% of each party are planning on voting for the other major party’s candidate. The historical average is 93% voting for their own party’s nominee, 6% for the other major party’s candidate, 1% third party.
What we have here is a 100% pure tossup rematch. Is that reason to be pessimistic? My answer, some. When pessimism takes over for enthusiasm for one’s party’s candidate, then that party’s candidate is in trouble. The big difference between the candidates, Trump installs enthusiasm and energy in his supporters, Biden doesn’t. The enthusiasm and energy for those planning on voting for Biden is being anti-Trump, not for Biden. You can see this by looking at question 3, voter enthusiasm under the democratic and republican columns and also at questions 6 and 7, Biden and Trump’s voter preferences, voting mostly for the candidate or mostly against his opponent.
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_maqVHQt.pdf
