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I’ve been concentrating, keeping tabs on the 30% or so Americans who dislike and don’t want neither Biden nor Trump as their next president. But this caught my eye. Black voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two very key battleground, swing states. This deals with black voters only in those two states. Key take away number 7 was of real interest to me.
The 15% of blacks today stating they’d vote third party in Michigan and Pennsylvania is unheard of. Going back to 1960 blacks voting third party averages out to 1%. Even in 2016, only 2% of blacks voted third party while 6% of the nation did. Today, nationwide, third party candidates JFK Jr. West, Stein, Oliver are garnering 12% of the vote. In 2020 only 1.7% voted third party, 2016, 6% as I stated, 2012 1.5%, 2008, 1.3%.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
The black Americans that I know will never forget Trump insisted on re-opening the economy in April 2020 when he found out black Americans were dying the most from C19.
#NeverForget
Additionally, from interviews that I have read, the reason why some black Americans support Trump is because of the two stimi checks received under Trump. If these people think that Trump is going to dole out more free money again - they have a lesson to learn.
Trump will dole out free money in the form of tax cuts for the rich, these people will never see another penny from Trump ever again.
I agree rick that most of those blacks in the 15% vote third party column will return to Biden by election day. Probably more than half if not three-quarters. Another poll which breaks down the electorate via party, race, age etc. show Biden ahead among blacks 61-12 over Trump. In 2020 Biden won blacks 87-12 with but 1% voting third party. It’s seems Trump still has retained his 12% from 2020, while Biden has a 26-point climb to get back to where he was back then. Trump’s 12% of the black vote was the most for any republican presidential candidate since Gerald Ford received 15% back in 1976. In fact, republican presidential candidates have been climbing among blacks from 4% in 2008, to 6% in 2012 to 8% in 2016 to 12% in 2020.
The problem is we don’t know how large or small voter turnout this year will be. Although we can compare today’s enthusiasm in voting for the presidency to 2020 when 62% turned out, the most since 1960 when 63% turned out. Among blacks this year, only 35% of extremely or very enthusiastic, 46% not too or not at all enthusiastic about voting in the presidential election. In 2020, 72% of blacks were either extremely or very enthusiastic vs. 22% who were not too or not enthusiastic at all. This mirrors the nation at large, everyone.
I suppose the bottom line is very few people are excited this year about their choices or voting. That is if they’re not avid pro or anti-Trump. In fact 51% of the 40% who today say they’re voting for Biden are anti-Trump, not pro-Biden. They just want Trump to lose. They could care less about Biden. 48% are voting for Biden, these want Biden to win, to be reelected. Of the 42% who state they’re going to vote for Trump, 67% are for Trump, he’s the candidate they want to win. 32% are voting against Biden, the candidate they want to lose.
Does the reason behind the vote matter, probably not as long as they vote? But in the last two presidential elections, the anti-vote or those who just vote against a candidate, not for any candidate, who wins was irrelevant as long as the candidate they’re voting against loses. The anti-voters decided who became president. 2016 Trump won the anti-vote, those who just voted against a candidate, not for any candidate 50-39 over Clinton with 11% voting third party as they were anti-both. 2020 Biden won the anti-vote 68-30 over Trump. In 2016 26% of those who voted were anti-voters, 24% in 2020. Today the anti-voters are voting for Biden 51-32 over Trump, a much smaller margin than in 2020 with the 17% voting third party against both Biden and Trump.
Conclusion, Biden doesn’t excite those voting for him, but being anti-Trump does. With Trump, it’s Trump himself that excites his voters, not being against Biden.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
The problem is we don’t know how large or small voter turnout this year will be.
The turnout will definitely be smaller than 2020 due to a lot of voters not liking either choice. In 2016, I did not vote. It was first time in my life. I learned my lesson, I will NEVER do that again. It's my fault that Trump was elected because I did not vote. Sorry America, my bad - I won't do that again.
I agree Rick, voter turnout to be lower than 2020 and the third party vote higher. 2024 has more in common with 2016, 54% voter turnout,137 million than 2020, 62% voter turnout, 160 million. Enthusiasm to vote in this year’s presidential election 43% enthusiastic, 39% not enthusiastic vs. 2020 76% enthusiastic, 12% not enthusiastic vs. 2016 42% enthusiastic, 44% not enthusiastic. What 2016 and 2024 have in common is the dislike and unwantedness of both major party candidates. You can compare the candidates favorable/unfavorable to keep it simple. 2016 Clinton 38% favorable/56% unfavorable, Trump 36% favorable/60% unfavorable to 2024, today, Biden 40% favorable, 56% unfavorable, Trump 42% favorable/54% unfavorable.
As for not voting, you weren’t alone. Many didn’t bother to vote in 2016 due to their dislike and unwantedness of both major party candidates. One vote out of 137 million wasn’t about to make a difference. A high third-party vote, 6.0% also happened. That 6% was the highest since Ross Perot. In 2020 only 1.7% voted third party. Since 2000 the third-party vote has been below 2% with 2016 being the lone exception at 6%. I voted for Johnson in 2016, to be more honest, it was a vote against both Trump and Clinton. I was disgusted with both of them.
I wouldn’t use the word disgust this year, but the dislike and unwantedness of both major party candidates this year is very real. For very different reasons for sure. But it’s there. I’d place this at roughly a third of the electorate. One could classify this latter third as the who cares who wins or loses election since they dislike and don’t want neither one to be the next president. They want two different candidates other than Biden and Trump. That’s not going to happen. According to the polls so far, staying home, not voting is the option most of this latter third are planning on taking. Hence the low voter turnout prediction. Which raises the question, which candidate, Biden or Trump will a low voter turnout help the most?
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
" the question, which candidate, Biden or Trump will a low voter turnout help the most?" doesn't matter .... Roger Stone has already alluded to ... "The fix is in". Let me translate that .... no matter who thinks they win ... Trump wins.
ignorance is the enemy without equality there is no liberty Save America - Lock Trump Up!!!!
You sound very pessimistic. Although there are reasons to be pessimistic with Biden as the democratic nominee. With how America as a whole view and feel about Biden, his numbers, in the past he’d be a sure loser. But his opponent is Trump which redeems, enhances Biden’s chances, perhaps by a lot. This is still a 50-50 race. I have always been of the opinion that almost any other democrat than Biden would be trouncing Trump. The reverse is also true, that almost any other republican would be whipping Biden by 10 points or more.
The numbers between them are almost equal in every category. How Americans view them, both are around 40% favorable/56% unfavorable. About running for the presidency again, around 58% of all Americans don’t want either one to be running again, give or take a point or two. Almost half of all Americans would replace both on the ballot if they could. Not keep one and replace the other, it’s replace both. Biden overall job approval is at 40%, Trump’s was at 43% when he lost in 2020. Trump has his tons of legal problems; Biden has his age and the doubt about his mental acuity. Trump has been at roughly 42% in the polls which include third party candidates, Biden at 40%, again give or take a point or two since September of last year.
Both are below the historical average of 93% of their party’s faithful voting for them in the polls, Biden getting 86% of the democratic vote, Trump 87% of republican. But those party’s faithful aren’t voting for the other major party’s candidate, they’re voting third party, roughly 6% for both parties and undecided 4%. Only 2% of each party are planning on voting for the other major party’s candidate. The historical average is 93% voting for their own party’s nominee, 6% for the other major party’s candidate, 1% third party.
What we have here is a 100% pure tossup rematch. Is that reason to be pessimistic? My answer, some. When pessimism takes over for enthusiasm for one’s party’s candidate, then that party’s candidate is in trouble. The big difference between the candidates, Trump installs enthusiasm and energy in his supporters, Biden doesn’t. The enthusiasm and energy for those planning on voting for Biden is being anti-Trump, not for Biden. You can see this by looking at question 3, voter enthusiasm under the democratic and republican columns and also at questions 6 and 7, Biden and Trump’s voter preferences, voting mostly for the candidate or mostly against his opponent.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
More and more this whole mess is beginning to remind me of the movie "Hook" with Dustin Hoffman and Robin Williams. Guess which party and which candidate reminds me of Captain Hook?
Every single time the Biden gives Donald Trump...err "Captain Hook" his due dignity, he immediately searches for ways to sabotage and break the rules, and he does it with his well earned sense of impunity. In the end it's actually the croc who defeats Hook. Guess who the American people are, they are the crocodile, of course.
There are no lost boys of Neverland to save us, there is no Tinker Bell, there's only Peter Pan and the croc, and the croc has been moribund and lethargic for a great many years. Well, it is time for the American people to awaken from their slumber and hasten the end of a long nightmare.
If anyone is feeling irritated by such a childish view of things, I remind you that Donald Trump's view of the real world IS a childish one, he has never been forced to reckon with adult responsibility. He's a six foot man baby who thinks in terms of revenge.
It is his biggest and most clearly defined passion in life. Revenge is the largest chapter in either of his two ghost written books.
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My pessimism is grounded in reality. So what does that mean? Well, unlike so many Americans who said in 2020 Trump would voluntarily leave the WH ... well ... because that is what Americans who lose do. Right! Those folks apparently did not pay attention to what Trump said and did.
They only had a couple of months to prepare for an insurrection so they got too many things wrong and poor planning with improper support from the right people doomed the fight in the Capitol building itself. Guess what? They have had 4 years to prepare for a coup. They have built a machine ready for the chance Trump may actually lose the vote count. Unlike Republicans in 2020 who did uphold the Constitution. they have strategically placed election boards with Trump loyalists, who are ore than willing to throw votes out to guarantee a Trump win. They have rewritten the election laws so SoS doesn't have the power to oversee an election and replaced SoS with a Trump loyalists, also willing to ensure a Trump win. Moving on they have nominated and confirmed Trump loyalists to the federal bench thus ensuring siding with Trump in any legal proceeding. Trump loyalists control the House. The new House rules allow guns on the floor, thus should there have to be an onsite insurrection, Trump loyalists will be ready with armed support. And when the objections come the Trump loyalists in the House will ensure the next president will be decided in the House and not by the voters.
So why should I be optimistic?
ignorance is the enemy without equality there is no liberty Save America - Lock Trump Up!!!!
You are, pretty much, right on. I have no idea how many they have to do what they figure needs to be done. There is actually no secret about it all! I wonder if Biden has made any efforts to be ready for all of this. Unlike Trump I hope, suspect, believe that there are things to take care of things should Trump not win the election. I do know that something bad is going down.
My own thought is that Trump is just one of the gears in the White Christian plans. They have worked, for over 60 years on this one and, I suspect, this is their time to "make things right". They have already started on several fronts, from female control to religion in public schools and there is more as well. I'm told its pretty well laid out in project 2025 for all to see and I am sure there is actually more not written down - yet.
Again - hope that Biden has a plan as 'they' sure as hell do............
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