Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

Debates, I remember the first presidential debate between Nixon and JFK in 1960. Nixon looked rough to put it nicely, JFK tanned and looking fit. For those who listen to the debate on the radio, Nixon won. For those watching it on the TV, JFK won. How the candidates look carries a lot of weight. At least back then, probably in last night’s also. Give it a week or two for the polls to catch up with last night. Then we’ll see if the debate changed anything. Trump has a 1.9-point lead in the two-candidate race, a 2.9-point lead in the 5-way race.

I think the guilty verdicts hasn’t changed anything. Trump had a 2.2-point lead on 31 May in the five-way, 2.9 today, a 0.9-point lead in the two-candidate race on 31 May, today his lead 1.9 points.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

Which is no change considering the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. Like the guilty verdicts in the hush money trial, I don’t expect much of a change because of the debate. I think around 80% of voters have their minds made up as to who they’ll vote for come November. That nothing is going to change any of that 80% of voters minds. Which leaves 20% who’ll decide the election. That 20% are what is known as double haters. They dislike both Trump and Biden and don’t want neither one as the next president. It’s with these double haters that the fate of the nation resides.

Don't know what's going on with Pres Biden but I listened to some of what he said today and I saw two different people ... one at the debate and one in NC. Perhaps the Q nuts are right .... maybe there is a body double

Many more folks watched the debate than heard Biden in NC. If either left an impression on most voters or the undecided it will be the debate. I highly doubt many saw Biden in NC. Here’s a poll taken after the debate. Many interesting questions were asked. You can scroll through it if anyone likes. Myself, I always pay close attention to independents, the non-affiliated, less to non-partisan group of voters. I know how republicans and democrats will vote.

https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=92c0a94c-3531-4584-a468-f8145c8aa811

Funny how I am seeing very little on the dozens, if not hundreds, of lies that Mr. Trump vomited into the debate.

All of the pundit/political shows I've watched this morning are only talking about the poor performance of Pres. Biden!

How about sharing the bad news each candidate delivered?

Give us some fact checking!!!

MAGA don't need no facts ... simply listen to the voice of the son of God, Trump .... it's all you need

The debate, Trump lies, and Biden’s poor performance seem to be meaningless. Trump had a 1.5-point lead going into the debate, with only 2 polls done post-debate. Biden leads by one in the Morning Consult poll, Trump by two in the Survey USA poll. An average of 1.0-point lead for Trump. The polls have an MOE of plus or minus 2.5 points. All the hoopla surrounding the debate is meaningless, wasted hoopla. The horserace numbers haven’t changed. Trump has maintained a lead between 1-3 over Biden since September of last year. The indictments didn’t change any numbers, neither did the guilty verdicts in the hush money case and neither has the debate.

It's still a 35-35-30 election in my book. 35% solid Trump, 35% solid Biden, 30% which dislike and don’t want neither one as the next president. Around half of that latter 30% are stating they won’t vote; they’re refusing to choose between two unwanted candidates. About a quarter plan on voting third party, against both major party candidates with the last quarter undecided. This too hasn’t changed since September of last year. The changes were all within the MOE of the polls.

None of this latter 30% watched the debate. They never heard Trump lies nor did they see Biden’s poor performance. Only those who care who wins between Trump and Biden watched it. Most of those who watched the debate, their minds are made up as to who they’ll vote for come November. There’s no changing them no matter what. What incentive did this last 30% have to watch the debate when they’re against both Trump and Biden? The same question can be asked about them voting, where’s the incentive to vote or choose between the two major party candidates for those who dislike and don’t want neither one as the next president? For this final 30%, it’s a who cares who wins or loses election. `

Seems you keep making my case.

soooo ... why are you optimistic???

Let’s say I’m less pessimistic than you are. I’d be a lot more optimistic if the DNC and Democratic Party leaders had listened to their base and democratic leaning independents prior to the primaries.

Poll: Two-thirds of Democrat-leaning voters don't want Biden as 2024 nominee

https://www.axios.com/2023/09/07/poll-biden-2024-second-term-democrat-voters-cnn

But the DNC and Democratic Party leaders used everything within their power to ensure Biden wasn’t challenged. Thus, guaranteeing him the nomination. I was really surprised how meekly the base and democratic voters went along with their fait accompli. But that’s is history. I realize that this election is still 50-50. That even though Trump leads in the polls, his lead is still within the MOE. That there’s still an ocean’s full of water to flow under the election bridge between now and November. I realize this election boils down to the 30% or so who dislike and don’t want neither Trump nor Biden as the next president. That those Biden and Trump supporters, solidly for either one are set in stone. Having 30% of the electorate still in flux or disliking both and wanting neither one means anything can happen.

I also realize that with Biden’s numbers as a sitting president running for reelection he should be losing in a landslide. That no sitting president won reelection with an overall job approval below 50%. The same goes for how all Americans view the sitting president. That only one presidential candidate viewed below 50% favorably won since 1948. That was Trump in 2016 who was viewed favorably by 36% of all Americans, his opponent was Hillary Clinton who was viewed favorably by 38%. One of them had to win. Same for 2024, Biden is currently view favorably by 40% of all Americans vs. Trump who is viewed Favorably by 42%.

Sure, Trump has a slight advantage today, but I’m not willing to throw in the towel. This is like having your team trailing 4-3 at the end of 5 innings of game 7 of the world series. It isn’t like you’re facing a Sandy Koufax or a Bob Gibson on the mound. It’s Trump. But your team doesn’t have its best pitcher going either. Still, the game is far from over.

Ol' Joe is going to be the nominee. Yes, he did not perform well during the debate. At next day's fundraiser he did much better. The alternative is a 34-count felon with authoritarian tendencies.

If any party should be embarrassed because of their top ticket, it should be the Republicans. A convicted felon? Seriously?

The whole thing is just a little odd. He did a terrible job on the debate. A half hour later he was on a show and going about as good as anybody else. Waving his arms around and speaking with ability. There was, absolutely, not a damned thing wrong with him! That, my friends, tend to make one wonder just what the hell is going on. My first thought was that he was a victim of the people who were getting him ready for the debate. That still might be it but I tend to doubt it.

How about this. What if there is a plan running. Biden has got to be tired. He has been doing politics for a very, very, long time. Has a great record and this might be the right time to move on. First the governor of California. He has been supporting and getting money for almost every Democratic trying to get elected to the congress, nation wide. This has been going on for, at least, 2 years! This guy is popular in his state and he seems to be in favor of just about everybody who might be Democrat. I have wondered why he has been doing this. What if the plan is really pretty simple. Biden is tired and has done a great job by any measure. He will be running against a man who, if nothing else, is a serious liar, a convicted felon and a rapist. He is, in other words, the worst candidate for president in my lifetime. Now, what happens if Biden goes to the Democratic convention next month and puts the Governor of California as his choice to be the next President of the United States. I know, there are little things to be done, etc. but there is time for all of that. I also know that Governor would beat the living sh** out of Trump - he wouldn't stand a chance. it even gets a little better. The girtlfriend of son no 1 of Trump is his ex wife!! I am not making this up!

I know, sometimes I just get carried away but this thing would truly give the voting public something to entertain them for quite a while. It would also give the Dems something to believe in, to support and give them some pride as well.

Just saying............