Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

The problem Rick is a lot of folks saw the debate or read about or seen clips of it on the news. Only a few saw the fundraiser. Many more folks will remember the debate than just the handful who saw the fundraiser. There are now three post-debate polls with no change from those polls’ pre-debate. Going by them, neither Trump nor Biden gained or lost any ground because of the debate. It’s like it never happened except for those knee jerkers who first reaction is Biden must be replaced. Cool down.

As for Newsom jgw, the primaries give the American people an opportunity to get to know, to recognize the candidate, to become familiar with the candidate that was unknown to most Americans prior to the primaries. Newsom is unknown to most Americans. He won’t have the normal 10-month period prior to the general election for the people to get to know him. He’ll have 3 1/2 months if the change is made at the convention. Is that time enough? Maybe, I’m not certain. What Newsom brings to the table is youth, drive. energy and the ability to install enthusiasm in democratic voters in a way Biden can’t. Democrats along with democratic leaning independents never were enthusiastic about Biden running for reelection. Most, by a 2-1 margin didn’t want Biden to run for reelection prior to the primaries. Democrats trail republicans in the enthusiasm gap, enthusiasm for their candidate 77-64. That is the biggest gap I can remember. With Newsom drive and energy, he could wipe out that gap. Something I think the laidback Biden can’t. It may be too late to change horses.

For those interested, here - How Democrats could replace Biden as presidential candidate before November


https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ho...al-candidate-before-november-2024-06-28/

Joe Biden did a terrible job at the debates because he was sick and weary but he still showed up to work just like millions of Americans who wake up not feeling well. By the way, how DOES one debate against a Gish Gallop anyway, which is precisely what was standing at the other podium that night?

Heather Cox Richardson
“This was not a debate. It was Trump using a technique that actually has a formal name, the Gish gallop, although I suspect he comes by it naturally. It’s a rhetorical technique in which someone throws out a fast string of lies, non-sequiturs, and specious arguments, so many that it is impossible to fact-check or rebut them in the amount of time it took to say them. Trying to figure out how to respond makes the opponent look confused, because they don’t know where to start grappling with the flood that has just hit them.
It is a form of gaslighting, and it is especially effective on someone with a stutter, as Biden has. It is similar to what Trump did to Biden during a debate in 2020."

Am I supposed to believe that a well rehearsed GISH GALLOP is all you need to take down a democracy?
It didn't work in 2020 and aside from Biden's cold, it did not work the other night either because Biden's poor showing did not magically make Trump's gish galloping look strong, it made Trump like what he is, a reality TV star.

Lots of candidates have a poor debate night and still win in the end.
Hey, I'll be clear about this, if Biden gets replaced I will still vote for the Democratic nominee, not because I'd vote for an old yellow dog, but because Donald Trump serving another term as President is a ticket to a modern day Enabling Act known as Project 2025 and the end of democracy as we know it.

I'd love to see Newsom step up but just know this:

Forget debates, most of us already chose sides after January 6th, 2021.
MAGA wants us to forget about that.
Not gonna happen.

I agree Jeffrey, that most have already chose sides, that around 80% of Americans have their mind made up as to who they’ll vote for. I’d disagree with the timing or maybe not. I think if we’re talking about 2021, Biden would have easily defeated Trump that year if the election was held then. But that began to change in later half of 2021 to where today Trump and Biden are relatively even. That around 55% of all Americans have held a negative or unfavorable view of Trump from 2017 to today give or take a point or two.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump

But Biden has fallen down to Trump levels, from a low of 42% viewing Biden in the negative for his first 6 months of his presidency up to 56% of all Americans viewing him negatively or unfavorable today. From a higher a 54% view Biden positively, favorably for his first six months as president down to 40% of all Americans having a positive or favorable impression of Biden today.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden

Like it or not, fact is both Trump and Biden are highly disliked today. This election is more like 2016 than 2020. 2016 Trump was seen 36% favorable/60% unfavorable to Clinton’s 38% favorable/56% unfavorable. The first election where both major party candidates were seen below 50% favorable/higher than 50% unfavorable since Pew Research and Gallup began keeping track of presidential candidates favorable/unfavorable back in 1956. This election will be the second. The big difference between 2016 and this year is that it was Clinton that maintained a 3-4-point lead in the polls winning the popular vote by 2.1 points. Whereas it’s Trump this year that has maintained a 1-3-point lead over Biden.

Expect a low voter turnout this year along with a high third-party vote ALA 2016, 54% voter turnout, 6% third party vote vs. 2020 with a high voter turnout and a low third party vote when Biden was well liked and wanted, 62% voter turnout, 1.7% third party vote. This is what happens when you have two disliked and unwanted to become the next president major party candidates. Newsom would be good, but the article mentioned Andy Beshear, he’d be my favorite to replace Biden.

It makes me laugh when you preface so many of your posts with "like it or not" because you don't seem to understand, Joe Biden is not my valentine. I'm not in love with a Chief Executive. He's just another boss and, if he's a good one, I'll support him.
But I am not in love with him so if a better boss is available I will support that one instead.

The "Like It Or Not" people are the folks who ARE in love with Donald Trump.
If you don't tell them what they want to hear, they not only don't "like it" they're ready to maim or even kill to demonstrate it.
And if Trump doesn't win they'll do the same or worse because the man they are in love with says the election was rigged and stolen, and the only way it isn't is if he wins. NO ELECTION that he loses is an honest one.

So please, spare me the fake concern. I don't have to like it, it just has to make sense to me, that's all.
If the Democrats finally decide to replace Biden I will support the replacement candidate.
And I won't have to like him either, he just has to be able to do a good job and beat Trump.

Trump is not a candidate, he's a dictator and that is what I "don't like"....because I am actually an American who actually does believe in democracy and the Constitution that gave it to us.

Be that as it may Jeffrey. The fact is independents have come to dislike Biden as much as they dislike Trump. They’re the election deciders. What you or I think or believe isn’t going to decide any election. I’d never vote for Trump, never ever. But I want to know where this election stands today and tomorrow and the day after until election day. The only way to find that out is to study independents. Job approval for a sitting president is key as no sitting president with a job approval of below 50% has ever won reelection. Independents give Biden only a 33% job approval. Only 36% of independents have a positive or favorable view of Biden. It doesn’t matter for election purposes what Republicans or democrats think of Biden or of Trump for that matter. They’re evenly divided as to their respective base and if you want to include leaners, the GOP has a slight edge. Democrats will love Biden, hate Trump while Republicans love Trump, hate Biden. So, what else is new. The neutral factor is independents, the non-affiliated, the less to non-partisans, those who dislike both and who aren’t in love with either one.

We both agree Biden is the better choice, but that’s not what these election deciders think. Today, 36% of independents think Trump is the better choice, 31% think Biden is the better choice. 17% think neither is an acceptable choice by intending to vote third party against both Biden and Trump while 16% are undecided as to what they’ll do. No matter how much we want Biden to defeat Trump, we’re not even bit players in this game. It’s independents that will decide. I realize and acknowledge Biden’s short comings along with Trumps. I also realize and acknowledge that no matter what I think, want, or what you think and want, that will have no effect in deciding this election. So, I keep track of the group that will decide, that really counts in determining the outcome of this election.

Personally, I think the democrats were stupid in renominating Biden if they wanted to win this November. They knew how weak a candidate he would be if he sought reelection. The numbers were there in plain sight since August of 2021 for everyone to see. I can only conclude is that they didn’t want to see or even acknowledge their existence.

O not to worry. Apparently the SC has determined the Executive branch is now the unitary executive branch and the President is effectively above the law.

Pres Biden ... do your duty to the Constitution

The thing about Newsom is that he is known by other Democrats, especially those running for election because he has raised money for them nation wide and that may help. I am also told that he is good at what he does and liked. The problem that Biden has is that he went to the debate,and knew he was screwed regardless of why. It was not a good thing to do and just ads to all the rest of his problems and, given how the Supremes are behaving, how Trump the liar is behaving, etc. they REALLY believe they now have it in the bag and are starting to change/destroy the country as we all know it and THAT scares the hell out of me!

As you know I have whined about how Biden has been, in regard to his election, for quite a while now. Its very strange. Now we have Democrats telling everybody that he is going to do this and that to fix whatever. I would believe that if it ever happened but I simply do not believe it to be true. The man just doesn't like to do it. I have heard several Democratic talking heads say exactly the same things and they actually know the man! I, for one, really don't want a United States changed to suit the Supremes and Trump the liar, and that is where we are currently headed. Yesterday Biden did a whole public five minutes! This is not my idea of trying to get elected as president!

Incidentally, I actually like Biden and, if he gives up getting re-elected I believe he will go down as one of our better presidents. If he runs and loses he will also lose that history for something not particularly good. If he runs I believe that he will lose, his battle with Trump the liar is just too close to mess around with and I simply do not believe he can win. I have little or no faith in the American voting public. If Biden continues to run I will hope for the best but, well, you know.............

Another speculation. What if Biden does not run for president. Newsom runs for president and Biden as vice president. (I know that's a bit silly. Still, a thought!)

Newsom isn’t known nationally. His favorable 39%, unfavorable 24% with the rest not sure or don’t know who the heck he is. This is where the primaries come in giving an unknown candidate from January through June for the public to get to know him, who he is, to recognize his name, etc. Newsom has lost those six months even if he replaced Biden. Even if Newsom was nominated at the Democratic Convention to replace Biden, that gives Newsom a scant 2 ½ months prior to the election. The Democratic national convention isn’t until 19 August. He’d be an unknown entity to 30% of all Americans, but that might be a good thing. Both Biden and Trump are very well known, everyone knows who they are, and everyone has an opinion of both of them, mostly negative for both. Perhaps most Americans would be more than willing to give an unknown a chance over a very well-known disliked Trump. Who knows?

As for history judging presidents, no one knows how that will shape out. Truman was very unpopular in 1952, he couldn’t have gotten elected dog catcher. He knew that and withdrew from the presidential race. He had only a 32% job approval. He was toast if he ran. But history now rank Truman as a near great president, the 6th best behind Washington, Lincoln and FDR the three great president and then Teddy Roosevelt and Jefferson as the other near great presidents. Eisenhower was another president not given much credit at the end of his presidency, ranked 21st out of 31 presidents at the end of his presidency, he’s ranked 8th today.

Biden has a job approval today of 40%, most Americans don’t like the job he’s done. But how historians will view his presidency remains to be seen.