Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

Jeffrey, I think most democrats and anti-Trumpers forgot this election is as much about Biden, maybe more so since he is the sitting president as it is about Trump. To a lot of folks out there this election is a referendum on Biden’s four years as president, not on Trump’s previous tenure. Biden is president now, not Trump. In 2020 Biden was the alternative to Trump for those who didn’t like his presidency or the job he done. This year, Trump is the alternative to Biden who don’t like the job Biden has done as president. Biden is running for reelection, not Trump. The question is, has he done a good enough job to deserve reelection? If one looks at Biden’s overall job approval and on his handling of most issues, most Americans answer that question with a no.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/approval-rating
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/issues

Of course, in 2020 when most Americans answered that same question about Trump, they answered no also. Now we’re 4 years later. Trump isn’t president, Biden is. Their roles are reversed. What all the anti-Trumpers need to do is drop back and look at the entire electorate. Not just those inside the windowless anti-Trump cocoon. One can say when it comes to the pro and anti-Trumpers, Biden plays no role. Their minds are made up, set in stone. But there’s that 30% where Biden plays a huge role, perhaps the main role, those who don’t want him reelected and at the same time, don’t want Trump to regain the white house. They dislike and don’t want neither one to become the next president. For that 30% this election is more about the sitting president running for reelection than the previous president who is challenging him. This I don’t think democrats, anti-Trumpers can get through their heads.

The disdain is so high for both Biden and Trump in this latter group, the 30%. That half of them are stating today they won’t vote with another quarter stating they’ll vote third party if they do vote. Against both Biden and Trump. That leaves but a quarter of this 30% group who are choosing to them, the lesser of two evil candidates. The key phrase here is to them. Trump is leading Biden among this last quarter who are choosing the candidate they want to lose the least. This could all change, I don’t think it will. This has been steady, constant since November of last year. This is news democrats and anti-Trumpers don’t want to hear, they’re closing both their eyes and ears to it. They’re ignoring the reality of this rematch.

Here’s something to think about jgw. Questions 6 and 7. The reason why folks are voting for or against Biden and Trump. Those voting for Biden, 49% are mostly for Biden, 48% mostly against Trump. Even among democrats, 56% are mostly for Biden, 42% are voting for Biden because they’re against Trump. They’re not voting for Biden, they’re voting against Trump only because they want Trump to lose. Half of Biden voters could care less if Biden wins as long as Trump loses. They just want Trump to lose, who wins is irrelevant as long as Trump loses.

Trump supporters are the opposite. 67% are mostly for Trump, 32% most against Biden. Among republicans, 71% are mostly for Trump, 28% against Biden. More Trump voters want him to win than want Biden to lose.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_DqmBE9q.pdf

Perhaps the question should be asked, is being anti-Trump enough for Biden to win when half of those intended to vote for Biden are anti-Trump and not pro-Biden? Trump has a big advantage in those who want him to win vs. those who want Biden to win. Biden’s advantage is in those who want Trump to lose over those who want Biden to lose. How’ll this works out, time will tell.

After doing a lot of reading these last couple of days, especially on those democrats who want Biden to step aside. It wasn’t the poor debate performance or Biden’s very low job approval numbers or him being seen unfavorably by most Americans. Although those have a lot to do with it, but they weren’t the clincher.

Biden’s overall job approval is down to 38.6%, disapproval 57.9%. Americans having a negative or unfavorable view of Biden, 56.9%, those who view Biden favorably or positively 39.4%. You can compare Biden’s to Trump’s and Harris right below Biden’s favorable/unfavorable.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/approval-rating

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/political-leaders

What those democrats fear is that Biden won’t be able to run a creditable, energetic, campaign against Trump. This is the number one reason, at least that I have deduced. Shades of 2016 loom big when Clinton let Trump both outwork and out campaign her relying on her huge advantage in the money race. Fears that Biden won’t be able to campaign aggressively is there much like Hillary didn’t in 2016. The big difference is Hillary led in the polls from start to finish whereas Biden has been trailing since November of last year. It will take a very aggressive, energetic campaign filled with enthusiasm to defeat Trump. Those democratic congress critters who are calling for Biden to step down don’t think Biden has that in him. That Biden is too laidback, lacks the energy and stamina needed for a grueling campaign that is sure to come.

The Biden thing is very, very strange. Biden has, actually, done a really good job at being president. I also suspect that anybody who has thought about it feels the same way. I even suspect that, if he wins, he will continue to do a pretty good job. My problem is that I am unwilling to count on Biden to beat Trump. Trump has no problem selling Trump and does a good job in that regard. Biden, on the other hand, well I have been whining about his obvious lack of displaying any desire to actually run for president. This is a fact that is so obvious that I have heard old line Democrats pleading with anybody who can get on TV to get out there are sell Biden! I think we have all seem this kind of thing going on for the last three years! Now throw in the Democratic Party. I seriously question their ability to get out there are sell Biden as well. They are great in claiming this and that but when it gets right down to it, so far, they haven't I think, done a very good job (other than claiming they are going to do that). I also looks like Biden is going no where and the above, pretty much, explains why I am seriously concerned. I really hope I am dead wrong. I would even appreciate anybody come in and telling me I am flat out wrong and full of sh** Especially if they could explain where I am wrong. So far, nobody has done that. I suspect that I am not the only Democrat with little or no faith that everything is going to change, the Dems and Biden are going to be on TV every freaking night selling. Trump is, pretty much, out there EVERY NIGHT! The only time was recently, when he didn't want anything he might do would mean that Biden was NOT going to run (he REALLY wants Biden to run!!)

So, we have Trump out there, every night, lying his head off, and selling Trump. I find it incredible but true. Then we have the Democrats doing this great job. Why, Biden had a 5 minute thing, and then, last week, and entire 15 minute visit. I also suspect he may have visited some place as well. There is also another thing about Trump. He entertains so people listen to him. This is why media so likes him! Even, I suspect, people who are not going to vote for him will actually watch him. Biden, on the other hand has never been said to be entertaining. If he was entertaining, and could explain just what he is doing without putting the watchers to sleep I would be delighted to do a public dance of joy.

Anyway, I firmly believe that the Democrats have a lot of people who could run for president and actually beat the crap out of Trump (which Trump knows and does not want to happen, obviously). The problem is Biden. I just wish the guy would get off the dime and actually start to work at winning EVERY NIGHT, ON TV. So far, not so much (but a LOT of talk about doing that by others, ie The Dems)

My basic problem is pretty simple. I simply do not think that Biden can beat the Liar Trump!!

I think it might be interesting to know how many turn on their TV for Trump and how many for Biden. One of the reasons Trump is on so often is that media likes him here. He draws them that watch and they don't care if he is a criminal, a liar, a rapist, whaterever, they just do not care!!

It’s not what you or I think of the job Biden has done jgw. It’s what those who go to the polls think. They will have the final say. I think what drives Biden’s job approval down is inflation, rising prices. The feeling out there, especially among independents that they were personally better off, that their standard of living was better, things more affordable four years ago than they are now, today. 32% of all Americans cite inflation, rising prices as their most important issue in deciding who to vote for. That 32% includes 39% of independents or swing voters which explains why Trump is leading among independents.

The rest of your post brings back memories of 2016. When Clinton basically stayed hid while Trump was out front in the news basically 24/7. Clinton went over 200 days without a press conference. She relied on paid political advertisements while Trump was calling in daily to all the morning TV talk shows. He was saying outrageous things back then, lies today, but they got him coverage on the news. He was always the top story, front page whereas Clinton was later in the news reports, back page so to speak.

Biden seems to shy away from the press, perhaps he isn’t comfortable with them. As a senator from Delaware, he basically didn’t need to campaign. As VP, it was Obama out front on the campaign trail. Even in 2020, the COVID election, Biden did his campaign from his basement. Trump gets people to tune into the news, Biden doesn’t just like Clinton didn’t in 2016. Network, cable news is all about ratings, the higher the ratings, the more people watch, the more thy can charge for their commercials. Boring doesn’t cut it. Especially a laidback president who quietly goes about his work not seeking fanfare or the limelight.

I would classify the Biden president as serene, calm, common sense. Not chaotic bordering at times on the insane with a million tweets a day. The latter I don’t want to return to.

Do you seriously not realize that's being underwritten?

Again, did you forget that the press GAVE Trump two billion dollars in FREE publicity?
When is the last time a Democrat was GIVEN free anything?

You sound like someone who still thinks that the press drops what they are doing when incumbent Democratic Party presidents want to talk to the people, like some Fireside Chat like in the days of FDR.
That world doesn't exist anymore Perotista.

The only people in office who get airtime are the ones with think tanks behind them, think tanks funded by megadonors connected to parent companies that happen to be big ad sponsors on the news networks.
The Kochs own a network of companies all of whom buy advertising time for their products on TV.

Have you taken a look at the Project 2025 Advisory Board?



The only parallel was when the big industrialists in the Ruhr Valley finally decided that "National Socialism" wasn't really socialism at all and they finally opened their pocketbooks and bought themselves a dictator.
Sorry but this is not some "grass roots" phenomenon, it reeks of fash-tro-turf and you simply aren't smelling it because you're stuffed to the brim with potpourri.

Here’s an interesting trend I found since November of last year. Call it pro-Trumpers vs. anti-Trumpers. Trump had a 4.5-point lead in November last year, Trump lead is 4.9 points as of this AM.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

Trump’s support is solid, he’s run at an average of 42%, give or take some tenths of a point since November of last year. He hasn’t gained nor lost support. Biden on the other had started off at 35% last November, rose to 41% in April of this year and is currently at 38% rounding off.

What’s interesting is third parties started off at 18% last November, dropped to a low of 10% in April, currently at 14%. When Biden gained, third party support for Kennedy, West, Stein dropped, when support for Biden dropped, third party support for those candidates rose. Trump hasn’t gain support when Biden lost support, Trump hasn’t lost support when Biden gained. There seems to be a revolving door among Biden and third-party supporters. Trump remains constant at roughly 42%. Trump’s support is solid, Biden’s not so much. The key seems to be 42% of the electorate are solid pro-Trumpers. If you add third party voters to Biden voters last November, 53% intended to vote against Trump. In April of this year, the total was 51%, Biden voters plus third-party voters. Today it’s 52%, undecided make up the final 8%.

It seems on average 52% of the electorate fall into the anti-Trump column. However, not all anti-Trumpers are pro-Biden. A lot of them are both anti-Biden and anti-Trump. Hence their movement between supporting Biden and voting third party against both Trump and Biden. Even though Biden has fallen from 41 to 38, Trump didn’t gain, third party candidates did. When Biden rose from 35 to 41, Trump didn’t lose any voters, third party candidates did. There’re still those undecideds, those who will stay home and not vote due to their dislike and unwantedness of both major party candidates.

The bottom line is there’s still more anti-Trumpers out there than pro-Trumpers. Roughly 52-42. But the anti-Trumpers aren’t about to coalesce around Biden. Some dislike Biden as much as they dislike Trump. Some more so than Trump, some less so than Trump.

Draw your own conclusions.

I think it boils down to that old political adage, candidates’ matter. Today, billions are spent on elections, democrats over the last few election have spent more of those billions than republicans.
2016 https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/
2020 https://www.opensecrets.org/2020-presidential-race
2024 so far, the money race is relatively even. But the campaign season hasn’t even started. https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race

If you count all political offices, elections for 2020, huge money advantage democrats - https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2020/10/cost-of-2020-election-14billion-update/

Here’s the list of 2022 biggest money donors.

https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/biggest-donors?cycle=2022&view=om

I think you're intentionally skipping over the FREE AIRTIME part.
I did mention it.
In fact I've mentioned it several times.