I’ve been saying all along that approximately 30% of Americans dislike and don’t want neither Biden nor Trump back in the white house come January 2025. I’ve seen this 30% being called double haters by some. What has happened since the debate, 8 days later? Trump is still at his 42% he was at on 27 June. However, Biden has dropped from 40% down to 37% while those intending to vote third party rose from 10% to 14%. I think it’s important to note that while Biden dropped, they didn’t go over to Trump.
Trump seems to have a ceiling of 43%, he’s never been above that in polls that included third party candidates. Biden’s ceiling is 41% as he’s never risen above that either. The third-party vote has fluctuated between 8-18% since November 2023. Whenever either Trump or Biden drop, they don’t go over to the other major party candidate, they go into the third-party column. Biden’s current 37% if the lowest he’s been since January 2024 when he was at 35%.
I don’t think the debate hurt Biden, this 30% who make up the double haters didn’t watch it. What has caused Biden to drop 3 points in my opinion is all this Biden must withdraw talk going around. This talk has hurt him more than his debate performance. What it has done is make some of those 30 percenters who were planning to vote for Biden as the lesser evil to Trump, to leave Biden. But not go over to Trump. They still dislike him and don’t want him to return to the white house.
I think you’re correct about Newsom or someone else replacing Biden. That the replacement would be much better received by these double haters. That’s a misnomer, they don’t hate, but I like that phrase as a description. The problem there is that it is late in the game. That this 30% right now are fed up with this election between two disliked and unwanted candidates. They tuned it out. Could Newsom or someone else get a lot of these double haters tuned back in and to the polls? Many have given up stating they won’t vote this year. Enthusiasm for voting for president is at an all time low. You can compare this year, Question 3.
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_xTDr4ON.pdfTo the enthusiasm for voting for the president in 2020, question 22.
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/nzc8dt85gn/econTabReport.pdfWhen you don’t like neither major party candidates, there’s no incentive to go vote. This is something else I don’t think neither major party realizes. I say give Newsom or someone else a chance, we’ve got to get this 30%, these double haters interested in the 2024 presidential election again, as interested as they were back in 2020. Biden I don’t think is capable of doing that.
