That’s fine Rick, but you need a baseline to compare the numbers to. I suggest the 2020 presidential election to do the comparison along with how Biden was fairing prior to his withdrawal. Compare your polls numbers to others. But as I said prior, I don’t particularly care for just 2 candidate polls if a poll exists that includes independents and third-party candidates as they’ll be on most state ballots in November, not just the choice between Trump and Harris.
2020 Exit Polls Young Voter Biden 60-36/CBS Prior withdrawal Biden 60-38/vs. Harris 62-37
2020 Exit Polls Women Voters Biden 57-42/CBS Prior withdrawal Biden 51-48/vs. Harris 52-47
2020 Exit Polls Black Voters Biden 87-12/CBS Prior withdrawal/Biden 73-24/vs. Harris 76-21
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-resultshttps://www.scribd.com/document/751579932/Cbsnews-20240718-National-thursThere’s really no difference between Biden vs. Trump and Harris vs. Trump considering the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. Harris does an average of 2 points better than Biden among those 3 groups but is within the MOE. A better comparison would be the 2020 election numbers vs. the new Harris numbers. Young voters, the same. Woman voters worse than Biden did in 2020, Black voters, still worse than Biden did in 2020.
Since both major parties’ strength is relatively even, you left out the group of voters that are the election deciders, swing voters or independents. They make up 42% of the electorate as of 1 June 2024
2020 Exit Polls Independents Voters Biden 54-41/Prior withdrawal Trump 37-30/vs. Harris Trump 35-28
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-co...Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202407222001.pdf5% of independents voted third party in 2020, prior to Biden’s withdrawal, it was independents 37% Trump, 30% Biden 19% vote third party, 14% undecided. Trump vs. Harris, 35% Trump, 28% Harris, 25% third party, 12% undecide.
Give it more time, we’ve just had a couple, three polls since Biden’s withdrawal. The voting public hasn’t had time for that to settle in. For 2 years the voting public has been fed this election was Biden vs. Trump. Now all of a sudden that has change. Give the people time to get their minds wrapped around this. They haven’t had the time to do so as of yet. You’d be surprised that the amount of folks who still don’t know who Harris is or much about her.