Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

That’s fine Rick, but you need a baseline to compare the numbers to. I suggest the 2020 presidential election to do the comparison along with how Biden was fairing prior to his withdrawal. Compare your polls numbers to others. But as I said prior, I don’t particularly care for just 2 candidate polls if a poll exists that includes independents and third-party candidates as they’ll be on most state ballots in November, not just the choice between Trump and Harris.

2020 Exit Polls Young Voter Biden 60-36/CBS Prior withdrawal Biden 60-38/vs. Harris 62-37
2020 Exit Polls Women Voters Biden 57-42/CBS Prior withdrawal Biden 51-48/vs. Harris 52-47
2020 Exit Polls Black Voters Biden 87-12/CBS Prior withdrawal/Biden 73-24/vs. Harris 76-21

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results
https://www.scribd.com/document/751579932/Cbsnews-20240718-National-thurs

There’s really no difference between Biden vs. Trump and Harris vs. Trump considering the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. Harris does an average of 2 points better than Biden among those 3 groups but is within the MOE. A better comparison would be the 2020 election numbers vs. the new Harris numbers. Young voters, the same. Woman voters worse than Biden did in 2020, Black voters, still worse than Biden did in 2020.

Since both major parties’ strength is relatively even, you left out the group of voters that are the election deciders, swing voters or independents. They make up 42% of the electorate as of 1 June 2024

2020 Exit Polls Independents Voters Biden 54-41/Prior withdrawal Trump 37-30/vs. Harris Trump 35-28

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-co...Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202407222001.pdf

5% of independents voted third party in 2020, prior to Biden’s withdrawal, it was independents 37% Trump, 30% Biden 19% vote third party, 14% undecided. Trump vs. Harris, 35% Trump, 28% Harris, 25% third party, 12% undecide.

Give it more time, we’ve just had a couple, three polls since Biden’s withdrawal. The voting public hasn’t had time for that to settle in. For 2 years the voting public has been fed this election was Biden vs. Trump. Now all of a sudden that has change. Give the people time to get their minds wrapped around this. They haven’t had the time to do so as of yet. You’d be surprised that the amount of folks who still don’t know who Harris is or much about her.

It is, I suspect, a little early to get the Harris/Trump thing. That being said Harris has really got a LOT of support according to TV. She had, for instance, the biggest gathering of supporters for a Democrat EVER! Then there is also the money thing. As far as I can tell they now have pretty close to half a billion dollars! (and she is, apparently, responsible for most of that too!). Then there is Trump and how he is dealing. Basically he isn't. Biden used to be the confused guy but, now, Trump seems to have stepped into that one too. Its actually getting pretty interesting. Unlike Biden, for instance, Harris is going after the Republicans tooth and claw. I am, personally, delighted that we now have a Democratic party that is actually trying to win an election.

I am, so far, basically a happy camper. I expect that the polls will eventually change but that takes time. I have hope that the Dems are actually going to goto work.

I also find it interesting that Harris has chosen not to deal with Netanhayoo while he is in congress as is usually done. This too, for me, is a good thing (the man is a jackass, mass murderer, and not nice as far as I am concerned). The United States should stop sending them a damned thing until he, and those like him, are thrown out. Its actually kinda interesting. There are a LOT of Israelis that want him gone as well. I am also REALLY tired of knowing that my tax dollars are being used to kill people because they are not Jews. (sorry, couldn't help myself)

I received this week’s enthusiasm for voting for president poll, 21-23 July 2024. Which does show an uptick in enthusiasm in voting for the president from Biden to Harris. Especially among Democrats. But Democrats still trail Republicans in the enthusiasm gap.
Question 3, 24 July all 48% enthusiastic/34% unenthusiastic, Democrats 54% enthusiastic/27% unenthusiastic, independents 31% enthusiastic/53% unenthusiastic, republicans 62% enthusiastic/22% unenthusiastic
Question 3, 16 July all 43% enthusiastic/41% unenthusiastic, Democrats 43% enthusiastic/38% unenthusiastic, independents 25% enthusiastic/60% unenthusiastic, republicans 67% enthusiastic/20% unenthusiastic

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_U76IOiF.pdf
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_sPu9WiO.pdf

Voter enthusiasm in voting for the presidency is still far behind the enthusiasm shown in 2020.
Question 22 for 2020, all 76% enthusiastic/12% unenthusiastic, Democrats 79% enthusiastic/10% unenthusiastic, independents 61% enthusiastic/23% unenthusiastic, Republicans 87% enthusiastic/5% unenthusiastic.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/nzc8dt85gn/econTabReport.pdf

We still need to give this a couple to three weeks to see if this uptick was a temporary bounce as Harris replaced Biden for the Democrats or the real thing.

Like I said Rick, I’m always a bit leery about polls which give the respondents just two choices, Harris or Trump. That’s not the real world where in most states’ voters will have more choices than just Trump and Harris. They’ll have 3, 4 or 5. Besides, the Reuters polls has an MOE of plus or minus 3 points as does CNN’s withs NPR/PBS polls at 3.5 MOE.

But in polls since Harris replaced Biden, 3 of them. Your Reuters, Harris 44, Trump 42. Then there’s NPR/PBS Trump 46 Harris 45 along with CNN Trump 49, Harris 46. That averages out to a 0.7-point Trump lead. The top 3 polls in this list are the ones post Harris replacing Biden.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris

Time, I think is on Harris’s side. People, voters are still adjusting to this new reality. Early indications is the switch is a plus for the democrats. But there’re still early indications. We don’t know if these early indications are temporary bounce or the real thing. We won’t know which one for at least two to three weeks, perhaps a month. But it is a good, positive start.

Whomp...whomp
(click the headline, it's a linky, dink!)

We do have some battle groundstates with Trump vs. Harris.

Arizona - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/arizona/trump-vs-harris
Georgia - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/georgia/trump-vs-harris
Wisconsin - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/wisconsin/trump-vs-harris
Michigan - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/michigan/trump-vs-harris
Pennsylvania - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris
Missing are New Hampshire, Minnesota, Virginia, Nevada. No polls there since Harris replaced Biden. It’s still very early and as I stated, folks haven’t really had much time to wrap their heads around Harris replacing Biden. There’s hardly any difference in the above battleground polls between Trump vs. Biden and Trump vs. Harris. I think that is because folks haven’t had time to get a good look at Harris or how Harris has reenergized the Democrats and perhaps some independents. I do know enthusiasm for voting for the president has risen from 43% with Biden vs. Trump to 48% Harris vs. Trump among all Americans and rose from 25% among independents, Biden vs. Trump up to 31% with Harris vs. Trump. Harris has piqued some attention to this election that wasn’t there with Biden. Although horserace numbers remain about the same, the added interest and energy, enthusiasm can only benefit Harris in the long run, give it time.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_U76IOiF.pdf
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_sPu9WiO.pdf

Just don’t get too giddy about early indications as there still just early indications. Good start, but still a long way to go.

Again, Stuff takes time! Things are moving and, hopefully that will continue and in the way I prefer. I watched Harris this morning. After watching Trump a day or so ago (got to admit I didn't watch the whole thing) and the difference was pretty obvious. Harris didn't as far as I could tell, told not a lie. Trump, on the other hand did absolutely nothing but tell lies. I am no expert in what is a lie. Trump, however, makes it easy to tell because that is what he does!

I have often wondered. I have, on occasion, mentioned media and the simple fact that they invented and gave us Trump. They actually put him in a show as a great businessman. The simple fact is that the only undertaking the man has ever has success is in Politics. He has gone broke in all of his business endeavors except for the one he got from daddy and I think that one is on the way out. Anyway, how about a law that would force media to have a line at the bottom of all media produces that would say something like "True or False", "Real or Fake", etc or at least the truth about claims of, say, "millions crossing the southern border" when it is lower than Trump had when he was president (not sure about that one). Media has to be responsible for what they tell the public! If you watch TV you might have noticed that media itself is for the TRUTH big time - just not them. If whatever they are sending out is a lie then it should be said to be a lie! That is fair. Just putting up Trump to lie (I do not even believe he knows what a lie is) whilst Harris does not (I do not believe), and treating each the same should be against the law! That would mean that if Harris tells a lie the public will know and, when Trump tells a lie the public also gets to know that! Right now we have a media which should be responsible and it is not! That is wrong! Assuming that the public knows what is true and what is not is also wrong. The public believes what they want to believe and lies, I think, don't even enter the thing. I am not sure they should have every show, no matter, that they said was real or not. (I have no faith in the American public). Everytime I see one of those news ads about how they deal only in the truth and then show Biden lying kinda drive me nuts!

I also suspect that if one network did this the rest might actually be forced to do the same thing because I also suspect that people would actually be told what the hell they are watching. I have known people, for instance, that have watched scary shows that are not reality, and believe they are!! (I have found that happens more than one might think)

While I am at it one more thing. I have noted that Trump is after Harris and says she cannot have the money that was created when Biden was the candidate until she is officially the candidate. I don't think that she needs it but that brought something to mind. Trump has been given, literally, millions of dollars which he has spent on things personal (like paying off the army of attorneys keeping him out of jail). Anyway, given that the money was given to help him win an election, and he has spent it on personal expenditures I wonder just how much tax he has paid on those millions. Just wondering........

Just saying...............

Please! DonOLD Trump breaks a law every day and nothing ever happens to him. Just today, he had NutANDyahoo over and that was violation of the Logan Act. Nothing ever happens to Trump.

I don't think it is applicable. The relevant wording tells the story ...

"intent to influence the measures or conduct of any foreign government or of any officer or agent thereof, in relation to any disputes or controversies with the United States"

I think Trump is simply a blowhard, who believes, within the delusions of his own narcissism, he can bring about world peace. Everyone in the world knows he is a buffoon, who can be easily manipulated. How can such a person solve global conflict????