Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

I just pray that we have a government that is ready for Trump if he loses the next election. This is because I firmly believe that he has Trumpies all over the place ready and willing to mess with votes and that's just for starters. When he said that Christians will never have to vote again he REALLY meant it. There will simply be no more voting and he won't leave until he is dead. I also believe this and he is serious and he has a pile of loons that do what he tells them to do.

Its really quite interesting. There are whole books, for instance, written by people who he have been screwed over. The last guy wrecked, that I know about, is the guy who used to be the mayor of New York. He now has had his license to be an attorney taken from him and virtually everything he owns is also gone and he is a drunk. Worst than that Trump wants nothing to do with him and he still thinks Trump is wonderful. He had an attorney, one time a normal person, who turned into a monster, hurt and threatened whenever Trump told him to, etc. and actually took out a loan on his own house to bail out Trump who was broke. When Trump became president he abandoned abandoned him. The problem with people who mess with him seems that they, first, get some kind of mental germ that turns off their brains and then all the rest occurs. That man is seriously DANGEROUS! I suspect there are even books on that one!

His base is a bunch who will believe every lie he tells, will do whatever he tells the to do, and seem to be willing to also go out and 'take care of people' for their lord and king. Its really scary. He told the congressional house to tuck away a law, they passed, that fixed the southern border stuff and they immediately did that. Oh, sorry, I think the Senate did that. Either way I actually fear for those members who would do that - they are displaying the "Trump Disease" and that, my friends, is also scary.

I would not shake that man's hand - might get the Trump Disease!

Expect Trump to say crazier and crazier things with recent polling showing a close contest and Harris pulling even or ahead in many key battleground states.

Trump is a sociopath and nuttier than squirrel poop.

An interesting aspect of Harris closing the gap, from 3.7-point Trump lead against Biden on 21 July to a 1.5-point Trump lead nationally this AM is those who intended to vote third party in a Trump vs. Biden matchup, 12% has dropped to 8% this AM. This is where Harris is getting the support that closed the Trump lead. Those voters who disliked both Trump and Biden, didn’t want neither one to become the next president, some have shifted to Harris as they still dislike Trump as much as when it was Biden vs. Trump. Only now, some dislike Harris less than Biden today. Those who disliked both Trump and Biden made up approximately 30% of the electorate. But keep in mind, this is early indications and movements. It may be as I once stated a relief Harris bounce as one of the disliked and unwanted candidates has withdrawn. We don’t know if this bounce is permanent or temporary. Give it more time.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...mp-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west

As for the battleground states, there hasn’t been enough polling there to get a grasp on what’s taking place. But like the national polls, even with Harris gaining in them, we don’t know if this is a temporary relief bounce, a type of honeymoon for Harris since Biden stepped aside. Most voters don’t know much about Harris other than she was Biden’s VP. It’s time to be hopeful, it seems Harris, at least for the time being has changed the dynamics of this election, but not to get all giddy. That is until we know this isn’t a temporary relief bounce. Harris was still Biden’s VP, part of an administration that only 41% approved of the overall job Biden did along with approval of the Biden administration on most issues well below 40% with some disapproval above 60%. The question is, will this eventually rub off on Harris since she was the VP or just have Biden gone will be enough to defeat Trump. Time will tell.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/approval-rating

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/issues

I want Harris to win, but I’m also a political realist.

As you say, TIME! It all takes time but, on the other hand, there does seem to be a change in directions and in a good way I think.

Now all we really need is Harris to get Trump to have a little debate. That, I think, would be really interesting but it doesn't look like its gonna happen. We will, again, see............

I’ve never been big on debates. I’ve found those who tune in are tuning in to root on the candidate they already decided to vote for. Undecideds usually don’t tune in. I don’t think it was the debate back in June between Trump and Biden that caused Trump to widen his lead up to 3.7 points. I think it had more to do with all the talk about making Biden withdraw. The debate gave democrats a panic attack. But independents remained steady as to who they supported or didn’t support. There’s no big deal in my opinion of falling from 2.6 points behind on 27 June, the day of debate to 3.7 points behind on 21 July, the day Biden withdrew. A 1.1-point fluctuation has more to do with the normal ups and downs of polling.

It's probably a good thing Biden withdrew. Harris has provided and installed some energy and enthusiasm among Democrats that wasn’t there with Biden. She has also sparked some huge donations to come in. But money isn’t everything as proved in 2016 when Clinton out raised and outspent Trump 1.191 billion to 646.8 million.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/

The feel and dynamics of this election has changed. Time to compare numbers. Trump led Biden by 4.2 points on the day Biden withdrew, today Trump leads Harris by 0.3 points.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...mp-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west

Other interesting comparisons
Independents Biden vs. Trump, Trump 37%, Biden 30%, Harris vs. Trump Harris 40%, Trump 39%
Blacks Biden vs. Trump, Biden 67%, Trump 11%, Harris vs. Trump, Harris 74%, Trump 10%
Hispanics Biden vs. Trump, Biden 43%, Trump 35%, Harris vs. Trump, Harris 50%, Trump 35%
Women Biden vs. Trump, Biden 44%, Trump 49%, Harris vs. Trump, Harris 50%, Trump 39%
Young Voters, 18-29, Biden vs. Trump, Biden 45%, Trump 31%, Harris vs. Trump, 56%, Trump 39%

Most other demographic, groups, breakdowns have remained the basically the same whether Biden vs. Trump or Harris vs. Trump within a point or two. It’s now been two weeks, still not enough time to say the relief bounce Harris has received is temporary or long lasting. But indications are that it’s here to stay. At least among the above groups, demographics.

Battleground states, early polling shows Harris has increased Biden’s small lead in Minnesota and Virginia to a more substantial lead which probably will take those two states out of the swing state category soon. Harris has overtaken Trump in Michigan, tied Trump in Wisconsin, has narrowed Trump’s lead in Georgia and North Carolina. Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania has remained basically the same whether it’s Trump vs. Biden or Trump vs. Harris.

One last thing, double haters, those who disliked and didn’t want neither Trump nor Biden as the next president, approximately 30% of the election. It is here where Harris has gained support, knocking down these double haters from around 30% to less than 25%. Whether they stay with Harris or go back to being double haters, more time will provide that answer.

My view on Harris choosing Waltz. Keep in mind, before one can govern, first, one must win an election. Waltz in my opinion was chosen more for ideological purity than helping Harris win the election. Shapiro is more of a moderate democrat would have added 19 electoral votes to the Harris column and had the ability to attract additional moderate swing voters whereas Waltz adds none of these. Trump as of this AM leads in Pennsylvania by 2 points, Harris has an 8-point lead in Minnesota.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/minnesota/trump-vs-harris

Here’s the difference, with Waltz Harris 226 electoral votes, Trump 235. With Shapiro instead of Waltz, Harris 245, Trump 235.

https://www.270towin.com/

Remaining swing/battleground states, Nevada 6, Arizona 11, Wisconsin 10, Michigan 15, Georgia 16, Pennsylvania 19, 77 electoral votes total. With Shapiro, you could place Pennsylvania into the democratic column giving Harris 245 with 58 electoral votes in the tossup column.

Trump made his VP choice out of ideological purity reasons with no help toward winning the election, Harris has done the same. Seems to me that both have forgotten that in order to govern one first must win an election. Neither Trump nor Harris gave winning the election any thought in their choices. Kelly also would have been a good choice in advancing Harris’s chances of winning the election, Arizona has 11 electoral votes.

The above is from winning an election perspective. Numbers from a numbers guy.

Both my wife and I thought she should choose who she did. I have seen this guy in action. Between the both of them they will really do well. It would also seem that Harris has been gaining a bit and, I think, with Waltz its gonna get better yet. I have also watched Trump and whats-his-name (sorry, I remain demented). Pretty much to same stuff, over and over again. Whats-his-name is trying but, according to all I have seen and read really hasn't all that many followers. Another point is that Waltz is also from the poor country. The difference, however, is pretty different. Waltz did it on his own and the other guy, according to what I have read and heard, sold out to a billionaire and does what he is told.

Just saying.............

well i suppose if i wanted to win an election I would select a republican as a running mate ... I like Kinzinger or Cheney .... broad appeal to the left and right

or maybe i would select someone with a somewhat shared vision of where we would lead the country

i dunno know .... i am still confused why so many people like trump ... he advertises his unfitness and people (non-MAGA) still love him

Why so many people support or are for Trump is hard to fathom. I have no answer or even a theory as to why. The numbers provide the answer why folks would want a republican administration instead of a democratic one this time around. Very low approval of Biden and his administration handling of most issues along with 65% thinking this country is headed in the wrong direction.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/issues

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/direction-of-country

Which makes Harris taking over the lead against Trump amazing, but not unexpected. It seems quite a lot of folks blame Biden for the above, but not Harris. Will that remain so going forward, unknown.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...mp-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west

But why Trump, the GOP going with him is pure asinine. Beyond common sense. Purely unfathomable.

Numbers, back to Waltz. The way I figure it there are 6 tossup, swing or battleground states out there. Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia worth 77 electoral votes. All the other states one or the other major party candidates have at least a 5-point lead or more. Without the tossup states Trump has a slight 235-226 lead over Harris. Had she gone with Shapiro, putting Pennsylvania into her column, Harris would have the advantage with a 245-235 lead. Without Pennsylvania Harris would have to win Michigan, Georgia, Nevada and either Wisconsin or Arizona to get 270. Harris leads in Michigan by 2 points, but Trump has a slight lead in all others. The importance of Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral votes can’t be understated or underplayed. Which I think with the selection of Waltz, Harris just did.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

But there’s plenty of time left to prove me wrong about her selection. If one wanted to win an election or at least increase her chances of winning, Shapiro was a no brainier. Remember, before one can govern, first one must win the election. The importance of winning so one can govern also can’t be understated.