The feel and dynamics of this election has changed. Time to compare numbers. Trump led Biden by 4.2 points on the day Biden withdrew, today Trump leads Harris by 0.3 points.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-steinhttps://www.realclearpolling.com/po...mp-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-westOther interesting comparisons
Independents Biden vs. Trump, Trump 37%, Biden 30%, Harris vs. Trump Harris 40%, Trump 39%
Blacks Biden vs. Trump, Biden 67%, Trump 11%, Harris vs. Trump, Harris 74%, Trump 10%
Hispanics Biden vs. Trump, Biden 43%, Trump 35%, Harris vs. Trump, Harris 50%, Trump 35%
Women Biden vs. Trump, Biden 44%, Trump 49%, Harris vs. Trump, Harris 50%, Trump 39%
Young Voters, 18-29, Biden vs. Trump, Biden 45%, Trump 31%, Harris vs. Trump, 56%, Trump 39%
Most other demographic, groups, breakdowns have remained the basically the same whether Biden vs. Trump or Harris vs. Trump within a point or two. It’s now been two weeks, still not enough time to say the relief bounce Harris has received is temporary or long lasting. But indications are that it’s here to stay. At least among the above groups, demographics.
Battleground states, early polling shows Harris has increased Biden’s small lead in Minnesota and Virginia to a more substantial lead which probably will take those two states out of the swing state category soon. Harris has overtaken Trump in Michigan, tied Trump in Wisconsin, has narrowed Trump’s lead in Georgia and North Carolina. Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania has remained basically the same whether it’s Trump vs. Biden or Trump vs. Harris.
One last thing, double haters, those who disliked and didn’t want neither Trump nor Biden as the next president, approximately 30% of the election. It is here where Harris has gained support, knocking down these double haters from around 30% to less than 25%. Whether they stay with Harris or go back to being double haters, more time will provide that answer.
