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Dec 6th, 2017
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Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 2,916 Likes: 61
enthusiast
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OP
enthusiast
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 2,916 Likes: 61 |
I’m cautious as the numbers show everyone should be. Harris gained her six points going from 39% with Biden on 21 July to 45% by the end of July. 10 days of steady gains. However, Harris has been steady at 45% plus or minus a couple of tenths of a single percentage point since then, through all of August. She hasn’t gained any more converts, but she hasn’t lost any support either. Trump also has remained at his 44% plus or minus some tenths of a point since 21 July. He also hasn’t gained or lost support. Which means we still have around 10% of the electorate still up in the air as to who they’ll vote for. 3% in undecided column along with those intending to vote for third party candidates, 7%. Harris’s gains have come from previous third-party voters, 12% on 21 July, 7% today along with what is now referred to as double haters in the Trump vs. Biden rematch. Those who disliked and didn’t want neither Trump nor Biden as the next president. They had made up around 30% of the electorate. With Harris in a Harris vs. Trump matchup, the double haters have drop to a bit over 20%. History shows that most of those 20% of double haters left won’t vote. Assuming that is the case knowing what assuming or assumptions can make of you, we’re down to that 10% of the electorate that will decide this presidential election. The 7% who intend to vote third party, the 3% who are undecided. They haven’t moved since 1 August. You have exactly the same percentage of this latter 10% on 1 August as you do today, this AM. Neither have Trump’s or Harris’s intended vote percentages moved either outside of some tenths of a single percentage point one way or the other. https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...mp-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-westhttps://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-steinBottom line as I see it, we’re back to the 50-50 race as it was prior to Biden’s poor debate performance on 27 June which resulted in Trump taking a 4-point lead over Biden. I’ve said earlier, for the last couple to three months that 80% of the voters had their minds made up who’ll they would vote for, today I’m changing that to 90%.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,371 Likes: 370
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,371 Likes: 370 |
Harris leading Trump in AZ and NC. Tied with Trump in GA and NV.
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 2,916 Likes: 61
enthusiast
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OP
enthusiast
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 2,916 Likes: 61 |
If this happens, this could be huge as RFK Jr. is drawing 5% of the intended vote. RFK Jr. expected to drop out of race by end of week, plans to endorse Trump: Sources https://abcnews.go.com/US/rfk-jr-plans-drop-presidential-race-end-week/story?id=113028999
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 2,916 Likes: 61
enthusiast
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OP
enthusiast
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 2,916 Likes: 61 |
Upon further reflection, JFK Jr. withdrawal may be a non-event. His share of the vote has dropped from 9% back vs. Biden when there were many double haters. Those who disliked both and didn’t want neither Trump nor Biden as the next president. But with Harris, RFK Jr.’s percentage of the intended vote has dropped to 4%, with Harris picking up most of those who no longer support or want RFK Jr. I think half of RFK Jr.’s voters will probably stay home as they fell into the dislike of both major party candidates or shift to West, Oliver, Stein if they do vote. Trump may benefit some, maybe a point, but no more. My initial reaction was knee jerk without much thought. Here so you can compare Biden and Harris to Trump. How the third-party vote has dropped from 12% down to 6%, where Harris has rose from Biden’s 39% up to 46%, Trump from 44% to 45%, Harris erasing a 4.2-point Trump lead over Biden to a lead of 1.9 for Harris. Kennedy dropping from 9% down to 4%. Rounding off. https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-steinhttps://www.realclearpolling.com/po...mp-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-westThere’s much more, but my thinking now is RFK Jr.’s withdrawal will be closer to a non-event than a huge one.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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Joined: May 2006
Posts: 4,979 Likes: 95
old hand
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old hand
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 4,979 Likes: 95 |
RFK Jr. is best gone. He is one of the idiots who are telling parents not to get shots. This, in turn, has meant that stuff that had been considered gone are now re-appearing in schools around the country. You know, little stuff like whooping cough, or being a child in a steel tank so he/she can breath. There is also Scarlet Fever, Mumps, Measles, Polio, etc.
This was a little thing which actually started with Trump telling everybody that shots are a bad thing. Now its starting to kill people.
I wonder if a single Trumper gives a damn. I remember the good old days, no shots no school. Now, I guess, no shots - nobody cares?
Last edited by jgw; 08/25/24 09:19 PM.
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,371 Likes: 370
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,371 Likes: 370 |
Trump + RFKjr = Weird & Weirder
RFKjr says that Trump asked him to be his VP. JD Prance aka "Mr. Mascara" better watch his back - Trump is an infamous back stabber.
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 17,163 Likes: 253
It's the Despair Quotient! Carpal Tunnel
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It's the Despair Quotient! Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 17,163 Likes: 253 |
Trump + RFKjr = Weird & Weirder
RFKjr says that Trump asked him to be his VP. JD Prance aka "Mr. Mascara" better watch his back - Trump is an infamous back stabber. There's even been a few editorial cartoons about it! ![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/gdxAsJQ.jpeg)
"The Best of the Leon Russell Festivals" DVD
deepfreezefilms.com
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Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 17,163 Likes: 253
It's the Despair Quotient! Carpal Tunnel
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It's the Despair Quotient! Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 17,163 Likes: 253 |
I wonder if a single Trumper gives a damn. I remember the good old days, no shots no school. Now, I guess, no shots - nobody cares? ![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/MvBljIW.jpeg)
"The Best of the Leon Russell Festivals" DVD
deepfreezefilms.com
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,371 Likes: 370
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,371 Likes: 370 |
Absolutely devastating polling numbers for Trump, across the board, at polling aggregate Real Clear Politics.
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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