Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

Remember, Trump is a media STAR! Millions watched his show with bated breath. I think that the beginnings of his base were victims, sorry, watchers of his TV show wherein he was incredibly rich, famous, could do no wrong, and according to them in media, a REAL entertainer. Then he lost his show and the watchers didn't have him as a hero any longer but media created him and he was still available! They joined up and never looked back. They even brought their friends! The entertainment continued and everything is dandy.

Obviously, the American Voting Public at its very best!!

Apologies, couldn't resist. Seems as good as anything as to why................

"Very low approval of Biden" a very good Trump propaganda machine. He is a savvy media guy. He twists and turns with every movement of the public sentiment. If he says Biden and the Dems are the cause of their problems .... they believe him. Now the MAGA folks have swallowed it hook line and anchor, the others still hesitantly believe even after you show the evidence to the contrary. In other words the propaganda has worked.

What can explain Harris’s meteoric rise from the 39.2% back on 21 July of the intended vote Biden was receiving to her 45.4% she’s getting of the intended vote today? I’m reminded of an article I read a couple, three months ago which stated the voters wanted change, but what they’re getting was the same old same, two very old white men running for president. That the voters were looking for something, someone different than two old has-beens who shouldn’t be running for president again. A fresher, younger, more energetic candidate. They’re getting that change in Harris, as in a fresher, younger face full of enthusiasm and energy.

Sometimes we overlook the simplicity of politics, For the more complex intricacies of politics. We intend to read way too much into what voters want or are looking for.

Very sad I would say, that what will turn out to be the most important voting block, independents, will make their decision based on old versus younger. It's already sad partisans of all flavors will vote for their clan/party regardless of who runs, but for independents to ignore the visceral existential threat to Democracy is astounding.

Regardless of which road one takes to save Democracy, the recent polling is uplifting, however .... never forget that MAGA has implanted the infrastructure to ensure Trump wins regardless of the actual outcome. Visit the recent GA election board changes which will guarantee that only Trump can win. How many more MAGA election boards are out there, We know there are many election deniers already in place to make the key decisions for a Trump win. We no longer have people of integrity in those important positions. If states don't certify a Harris win (should she actually wins) it may end up in the House where Trump wins. And if you believe when Harris takes it to the SC anyone but Trump wins .... Ive lost my belief the SC has the integrity to weigh any suit objectively.

All I'm typing is, even if Harris wins, she may not win.

It is what it is rporter. Most Americans aren’t political junkies and very few will ever do any research on the candidates. When it comes to partisanship voting, party affiliation, you have over 90% who identify with the major parties voting for their candidates regardless of who those candidates are. Independents are all over the place and much more apt to support third-party candidates than those who affiliate with the major parties. 1980 independents went to Reagan 55-31 over Carter with 12% voting for Anderson. 1992 independents went to Bill Clinton 39-29 with 30% voting for Perot, 1996 Bill Clinton again won independents this time 50-30 over Dole with 17% voting for Perot. 2016 saw Trump win independents 46-42 over Hillary Clinton with 12% voting third party, Johnson, Stein or McMullen.

If independents liked one or the other major party, they’d be a member of that party voting accordingly. The fact Harris has wiped out Trump’s 7-point lead among independents when he faced Biden into a tie is huge. It doesn’t bother me the reason why some independents switched to Harris, just the fact they did is what’s important. Fact is most independents didn’t want neither of the two old men, with Harris they’re getting their wish for a younger candidate.

The fact that Trump has worked hard to make sure he wins the election no matter what the voters said has been reported for some time. Especially the part about states not certifying. I have even seen it on TV! I have, in the past, hoped that gov is ready for what Trump has setup. I am also assuming that they have as well because they have been particularly quiet on this one. Somebody should goto Biden just to find out if he even aware or gives a damn. We should also remember that Biden is the guy in charge until after the election.

We also have, right now, a vice president of the United States that is available. Perhaps somebody should ask her if they have been working on this one. Its all so very strange. Nobody who is running for office and nobody in charge of government, seem to either know or care. What's even more interesting is that media, those who report the news and talk their heads off, have not even mentioned it either.

The only ones that have mentioned it are the talking heads but even they haven't said all that much but, at least, somebody has a clue. I guess we just have to have faith. Oh, Praise Be! That should do it!

One can only wonder (and hope a lot) ..............

The election deniers taking control of individual states elections boards could be mentioned much more, but there is little the administration could do about it. Elections are run by each state and the federal government can do little if anything about that.

Real Clear Politics has VP Harris leading in nearly every major poll. No wonder Faux "News" is trying to 'swift boat' Tim Walz with 'stolen valor'

Harris / Walz take Lead in Miami-Dade by double digits.

House of Representatives update. Currently the republicans have a 221-214 house advantage. There are 23 democratic seats and 25 republican seats at risk of switching or can be called competitive. All within the MOE of the polls in those districts. Most likely outcome is either major party can gain or lose from 0 to 8 seats.

Senate, democrats have a 51-49 advantage. The democrats have gotten their wish and will be rid of Joe Manchin. He’s retiring and he will be replaced by a MAGA republican leaving the senate in a 50-50 tie. Only one seat, Montana, D Tester is in the tossup column. All other currently held senate seats currently will remain with the party that now controls them. If the republicans win Montana, that will give them control of the senate 51-49. If the democrats retain Montana, that leaves the senate in a 50-50 tie which means whoever wins the presidency will control the senate.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/montana/sheehy-vs-tester

Electoral vote wise, as of this AM Trump 235, Harris 226. 6 battleground/swing/tossup states. Arizona Trump by 1.5, Nevada Trump 3.7, Wisconsin Harris 0.8, Michigan Harris 2.4, Pennsylvania Trump 0.8, Georgia Trump 0.6.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states