Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

Rick, caution may be the better desecration here. Trump’s numbers aren’t devastating across the board. Harris does have a 1.7-point lead, but that is well within the MOE meaning a basic tie when taking the MOE into consideration which everyone should. When looking at the battleground or swing states, all 7 are also within the MOE. Bottom line is we’re dead even whether that be nationwide or in the battleground, swing, tossup states.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

I do have a theory though. That 47% is Trump’s threshold. He received 46.1% of the vote in 2016, 46.9% in 2020 and has been below 47% in since Biden’s withdrawal. That for Trump to win he needs a sizeable third-party vote as happened in 2016 when 6% of the electorate voted third party vs. 1.7% in 2020 when Biden won. With Kennedy’s withdrawal, there won’t be any sizeable third-party vote. The third-party vote is currently at 2% divided between Stein, West and Oliver. Which is down from 12% back on 21 July when Biden withdrew with Trump ahead of Biden by 5 points. Harris picked up most of that 10-point third party drop rising from Biden’s 39% to her currently 48%. Trump rose from 44 to 47% rounding off. Neither candidate has gained or lost support since 8 August outside of gaining or losing a few tenths of a point every now and again. Both have stagnated since then.

You can call me a cautious realist. If this were the super bowl, we’re still in the first quarter with Harris ahead by a FG.

Now both Trump and his jerk vice (more ways than one), are running their mouths with slime and they just don't get it. On the other side more and more people seem to getting fed up with it. Trump just seems confused and not sure what to do and his personal idiot has decided to go seriously stupid. Between the two of them they are going to lose of a lot of support if they keep it up.

Can't help but wonder what's gonna happen tonight. Might get real interesting. Then the both of them will goto X and run their mouths with vigor and idiocy. Just hard to believe. They gotta have people on their case but, I guess, they both know better than anybody else!

People who know everything have always amused me. I have always thought that the real problem is education or lack thereof.

There are, literally books written by those who got screwed over. If you google "books about getting screwed by trump" you will find a number of anti-Trump books. Most of which are written by those who got screwed. There are still those who remain loyal even after their fall. The ex mayor of New York comes to mind. Poor bugger is pretty much broke now and trying his best to pal up with Trump. After one gets close they get screwed, blued, and tattood (always wanted to try that one). Some even get to goto prison for a little bit. Education is sometimes a bit hard. What is really amazing is that many just do not take to Education I guess.

Between Trump now basically being pro-choice and his continued disrespect of our troops, I expect Trump to begin to drop precipitously in the polls. Conservatives ARE NOT pro-choice. Trump has gone as far as saying DeSantis' six week ban is too extreme.

It's almost as if Trump is trying to lose now. Personally, I hope it's more of the matter of Trump giving up his will to live, as he faces certain prison time at the 09/18 sentencing hearing.

Trump is now pro-choice and pro-IVF saying his administration would not only protect access to in-vitro fertilization but pay for the expensive reproductive procedure through the government or insurance companies.

This is causing Evangelicals heads to spin faster than Linda Blair's in the movie, The Exorcist

Trump doesn’t know what he is, what he stands for or believes in. The 7-time party switcher has adopted whatever political ideology or philosophy of the party he belonged to at the time. The man is an empty shell as to political beliefs of his own when it comes to the issues facing us and the country. Trump is completely devoid of a political ideology of his own. If one views his political history, he’s been on both sides of every political issue and in the middle depending on which political party he belonged to at the time. The man believes in nothing except himself. He’s loyal to no one or anything except himself.

Trump campaign in disarray over abortion. Vance and Trump can’t keep their messaging straight.

Rick, I always believed abortion is already baked into the equation. That over the last 50 years or so, those who base their vote on the abortion issue, the pro-choicers have become democrats while the pro-lifers have become republicans. Abortion isn’t a hot issue when it comes to swing voters. Trump and Harris are tied at 40% each among this group of swing voters with 7% still intending to vote third party, 13% undecided.

I think the 2022 midterms showed that abortion has already been baked in. The republicans won the overall house vote 50-47 gaining 9 seats. This right after the SCOTUS overturned Roe. Prior to the overturning the GOP had a slight 2-point advantage, 46-44 in the generic congressional ballot. The overturning didn’t lead to a rush of democratic support.

There are certain events, issues dubbed as game changers by the pundits and others but isn’t. This year the only game changer I have seen is Harris replacing Biden. That change gave this election a very different dynamic, enhancing the democrats chances hugely. Even so, we’re back to a 50-50 election. Harris’s 1.8-point lead in the national polls is still within the MOE with all 7 battleground, swing, tossup states within the MOE of the polls regardless whether it is Trump or Harris in the lead.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

I classify any poll/s within the MOE as being a basic tie. That is exactly what we have today. Which is 100% better than anything Biden was doing from November of last year to the day he dropped out on 21 July. Biden never led Trump once in all that time.

Personally, all of this aside, issues, policies, etc. I think if the election were held today, Harris would win because she is more liked and less disliked as a person than Trump is. The outcome of this election may be just that simple.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/political-leaders

Once again you corroborate my contention the American electorate is .... STUPID!!!!!!!!

Perhaps rporter. But what do we generally have when folks go vote or decide who they’ll vote for? Most voters aren’t even close to being a political junkies along or pay a lot of attention to government or even elections. 49% of all Americans are paying a lot of attention to this election, the other 51% fall somewhere in-between none to a little to some attention. Paying a lot of attention to politics and government falls off to 25% in non-election years.

Voting habits, history shows that on average since 2000 93% of republicans and democrats, both parties will vote for their candidate regardless of who that candidate is. One can say it’s about party, not the individual candidates. But those who are party members or identify with the major parties do vote. According to Gallup both major parties make up 60% of the electorate either up or down a point or two based on the monthly figures from Gallup and Pew Research. But they made up 74% of those who voted in 2020 and 76% in the 2022 midterms. Independents who make up roughly 40% of the electorate, only made up 26% of those who actually voted.

Independents are more prone to vote the candidates, not the party. Although I need to be more specific about this. Independents can be broken down into three groups, independents lean democratic, independents lean republican and independents with no leans. The historical trend for independents who lean toward one party or the other is that they’ll vote for the party’s candidate 75% of the time that they lean toward. That’s down from 93% of those who identify themselves as republicans or democrats. Independents with no leans, around 10-12% of the electorate, who knows how they will vote. They’re finicky and usually vote based on their personal likes or dislikes of the candidates. Usually they do no research. One can never know, not even by polling how this latter group will vote. They’re all over the place, change constantly, can vote for one party in large numbers one election and turn around and vote for the other party in large numbers the next election. You can’t get the exact numbers or percentages on these folks as exit polling doesn’t divide independents into the three groups that make them up. They treated all the same. But it’s this 10% or so that decide elections. Not either major parties base nor independents which lean toward one or the other party.

Are they stupid or just different? I suppose if one is a republican or a democrat one would look on this 10% as being stupid. Rough figures from July which are dynamic and change constantly. 30% of all Americans say they’re republicans, 28% democrats, 41% independents. Of that 41% who state they’re independents, 41% lean republican, 32% lean democratic, 27% no leans or pure/true independents.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

But the above numbers are so old they don’t apply anymore. But take a hard look at the monthly figures and you can see how dynamic they really are. There can be huge differences from month to month. Many Americans really don’t know what they are politically. It’s those who don’t know that usually decide elections.