Rick, I always believed abortion is already baked into the equation. That over the last 50 years or so, those who base their vote on the abortion issue, the pro-choicers have become democrats while the pro-lifers have become republicans. Abortion isn’t a hot issue when it comes to swing voters. Trump and Harris are tied at 40% each among this group of swing voters with 7% still intending to vote third party, 13% undecided.
I think the 2022 midterms showed that abortion has already been baked in. The republicans won the overall house vote 50-47 gaining 9 seats. This right after the SCOTUS overturned Roe. Prior to the overturning the GOP had a slight 2-point advantage, 46-44 in the generic congressional ballot. The overturning didn’t lead to a rush of democratic support.
There are certain events, issues dubbed as game changers by the pundits and others but isn’t. This year the only game changer I have seen is Harris replacing Biden. That change gave this election a very different dynamic, enhancing the democrats chances hugely. Even so, we’re back to a 50-50 election. Harris’s 1.8-point lead in the national polls is still within the MOE with all 7 battleground, swing, tossup states within the MOE of the polls regardless whether it is Trump or Harris in the lead.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harrishttps://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-statesI classify any poll/s within the MOE as being a basic tie. That is exactly what we have today. Which is 100% better than anything Biden was doing from November of last year to the day he dropped out on 21 July. Biden never led Trump once in all that time.
Personally, all of this aside, issues, policies, etc. I think if the election were held today, Harris would win because she is more liked and less disliked as a person than Trump is. The outcome of this election may be just that simple.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/political-leaders
