Rick,I don’t doubt the poll results. But what it shows most women who place abortion as their number one or most important issue are already democrats. Already in Harris’s corner. 8% of all Americans list abortion as their most important issue. 9% of women do, 12% of democrats do. What the polls don’t do is break down those percentages into pro-choice or pro-life. One would be fairly safe in assuming that most if not all of the 12% of democrats who list abortion as their most important issue are pro-choice and have voted democratic for a very long time. That the 5% of Republicans who also list abortion as their most important issue are pro-life, again having voted republican for quite a while. If you carry this a bit further, out of that 8% nationally who list abortion as their most important issue, 13% intend to vote for Harris, almost matching the 12% who are democrats, 4% intend to vote for Trump, again almost matching the 5% of republicans. I repeat myself, most pro-abortionist who have stated abortion is their most important issue in deciding who to vote for has already become democrats and have voted for the democratic candidates for a very long time while those pro-life have become republicans, thus abortion is already baked in.
Then if you look at the national polls, even if you’re right, you still have a race within the MOE of the polls which is basically a tie. You can’t add more voters if those voters already are yours, who vote for you and your candidates.
If abortion attracted new voters to the democrats, one would have seen that effect in the 2022 midterms right after ROE was overturned. The GOP had a 2.6-point lead on the day ROE was overturned in the generic congressional ballot, the republicans won the house vote 50.0% to 47.3%, a difference of 2.7 points. The overturning had no effect as I stated earlier, those who decided who to vote for because of the abortion issue were already democrats at the time of the overturning of ROE and on election day 2022. The overturning of ROE didn’t changed anyone’s mind as to who they intended to vote for.
