Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

There is something to be said about not liking an adjudicated sexual assaulter. adjudicated business fraudster, insurrection fomenter, with 34-felony convictions, who cheated on his wife with a porn star, just after she gave birth to THEIR son, and who calls our troops “suckers and losers.”

Those are just not the qualities decent Americans want in a POTUS.

It's odd, but I've noticed, the other side seems to feel the same way. No matter who you or I disfavor and for what reasons, the other side feels the same way toward their opponent for the same reasons. I feel democracy is at stake, so does the other side.

And again. What is it? About 45% of the people feel the exact opposite! They feel they need to vote for someone with those traits!

You have really misinterpreted my long time conclusion. My contention is the MOST of the American electorate is stupid ... not just one side or the other. If people make decisions based on some idiotic inanity, then I should logically conclude they are stupid.

This is a misinterpretation of reality. The 45% of which you type DOES NOT believe Trump is or has said "an adjudicated sexual assaulter. adjudicated business fraudster, insurrection fomenter, with 34-felony convictions, who cheated on his wife with a porn star, just after she gave birth to THEIR son, and who calls our troops “suckers and losers". The sole underlying reason they love adore revere idolize, etc him is because he is the voice of their bigotry.

One does not have to be a political junkie or policy wonk to make an informed decision when voting. Everyone adheres to personal values. It is not too difficult to find out the policies and agenda for which a candidate stands on. Then one makes a decision based n their values and the candidate which comes closest to implementing those personal values.

Whether it is a beauty contest or blind allegiance to a party, both are stupid.

I must have misinterpreted that Trumps followers do not believe Trump did anything wrong at all. I interpretated it that they are fine with what he has illegally and immorally done.

I do not know a count of how many bigots exist today, but I surely am hopeful it is much lower than 45%.

All liberal fake media lies. Should I interpret that to mean what he has done is factually true and valid and it is ok with MAGA, or should I conclude Trump did not such thing. Consider the Zelenski shakedown. It was not a quid pro quo, but it was a fake media lie. Or, sex adjudication. Carroll obviously lied. Company fraud ... liberal persecution for something everyone does i.e. a non crime.

These folks reside in an alternate delusional universe or Trump is sent by God to save America and is therefore dishonestly persecuted by evil Satan led elitist liberals, or nothing the fake media prints is true.

The last stat I saw, which was a while ago, stated about 75% of the Republican base were racist/bigots. That would translate into about 33% of Republican base. I don't think the 45% represents the BASE (MAGA). MAGA is probably a smaller number ... I'm gonna speculate 33% is closer to the MAGA. So about 28%. However, in a non-scientific survey of my community (and this is based on actual contact) it would be 100% bigots.


Bigotry is real and still alive

Most conservatives would agree that Liz Cheney is a bonafide conservative.

Liz endorsing Kamala Harris is not good for DonOLD Trump. I see that old man Cheney has endorsed Kamala Harris as well.

In national polls, according to polling aggregate Real Clear Poltics, VP Harris leads Trump.

Here the rest Rick, as of this AM. The two-candidate race. Regardless of the race, all are within the MOE which means a basic tie.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris

The National multi-candidate race.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...mp-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west

The 7 battleground/tossup/swing states.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

One can’t underestimate the importance of Harris replacing Biden. That changed everything about this election from what looked like an inevitable Biden defeat into what I would call Harris being a very slight favorite. It changed the battleground states from where Trump was leading Biden in all 7, 3 outside the MOE or by more than 5 points, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona into Harris leading in 4, one tie and Trump in 2. But always take the MOE into consideration.

What I’m watching now is independents or swing voters. Biden won this group back in 2020 54-41 over Trump when Biden won by 7 plus million votes. Biden trailed Trump among this group 37-30, 18% intending to vote third party against both Biden and Trump, 13% undecided back on 21 July the day he withdrew being replaced by Harris. Today, Harris has a slight 43-42 lead with but 5% intending to vote third party against both major party candidates, 9% undecided. Just keep in mind, Biden trailing Trump by 7 among this group was 20 points behind his 2020 showing. Harris leading by 1 is still 12 point behind Biden’s 2020 showing among this group of voters.

Harris has turned a Biden 5-point deficit to Trump on 21 July to a 2-point lead by 6 August which is where it stands today. No movement for either Harris or Trump since 6 August outside of a couple of tenths of a point up or down. Both candidates have stagnated. Trump had the momentum against Biden, Harris retook that momentum for the first two weeks after Biden’s withdrawal, today we have still waters, calm seas with no wind to inflate either major candidates sails. Neither side has any momentum, both seem stuck in the mud right where they were on 6 August and still are today.

A rising share of voters in battleground states, especially women, say that abortion will be critical to their decision in November, according to recent NYT / Sienna College poll. Roughly as many voters list abortion as their top issue as those who chose immigration, though the economy remains the leading priority for Americans. For women under 45, abortion ranks as the most pressing concern. And those surveys also found that more voters said they trusted VP Harris over former-president Trump on abortion.

Rick,I don’t doubt the poll results. But what it shows most women who place abortion as their number one or most important issue are already democrats. Already in Harris’s corner. 8% of all Americans list abortion as their most important issue. 9% of women do, 12% of democrats do. What the polls don’t do is break down those percentages into pro-choice or pro-life. One would be fairly safe in assuming that most if not all of the 12% of democrats who list abortion as their most important issue are pro-choice and have voted democratic for a very long time. That the 5% of Republicans who also list abortion as their most important issue are pro-life, again having voted republican for quite a while. If you carry this a bit further, out of that 8% nationally who list abortion as their most important issue, 13% intend to vote for Harris, almost matching the 12% who are democrats, 4% intend to vote for Trump, again almost matching the 5% of republicans. I repeat myself, most pro-abortionist who have stated abortion is their most important issue in deciding who to vote for has already become democrats and have voted for the democratic candidates for a very long time while those pro-life have become republicans, thus abortion is already baked in.

Then if you look at the national polls, even if you’re right, you still have a race within the MOE of the polls which is basically a tie. You can’t add more voters if those voters already are yours, who vote for you and your candidates.

If abortion attracted new voters to the democrats, one would have seen that effect in the 2022 midterms right after ROE was overturned. The GOP had a 2.6-point lead on the day ROE was overturned in the generic congressional ballot, the republicans won the house vote 50.0% to 47.3%, a difference of 2.7 points. The overturning had no effect as I stated earlier, those who decided who to vote for because of the abortion issue were already democrats at the time of the overturning of ROE and on election day 2022. The overturning of ROE didn’t changed anyone’s mind as to who they intended to vote for.