Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

Perhaps "attracting new voters to the democrats" is the wrong way to look at this. Perhaps seeing cross-party voting for abortion rights is a better way to view this.

Liz Cheney and other Republicans have already publicly stated they are crossing party lines to vote for POTUS. They can remain Republicans all they want and still vote country over party.

I think the difference is in what the vote is. If for a candidate, then we have our polling numbers, but if you are voting on a referendum to codify abortion rights, then you get a different break down, reflecting the misleading numbers of voting for a candidate. I think a perfect example was the GA vote, in which people did not vote for Trump but did vote for down ballot Republicans.

Yes Rick, they have. But it wasn’t because of the abortion issue. It was because of Trump himself, the man, the person. If what I have read is correct, over 200 republicans have now endorsed Harris. But none of them was because of the abortion issue. It was because of their dislike of Trump, his actions, behavior, his lies, 1-6, the stolen election which wasn’t stolen and on and on.

Rporter, not only in Georgia, but in quite a lot of other states as well. People voting against Trump by casting a ballot for Biden, then voting republican down ballot. Here in Georgia, republicans swept all down ballot offices, but Biden won the state over Trump. The republicans ended up gaining 13 house seats nationally although Biden won the popular vote by 7 plus million votes.

2022 again saw Trump endorsed candidates lose here, Walker, Loeffler lost senate races, but the GOP once again swept all other offices. Over 55% of Georgians voted for republican state house and senate candidates yet voted against Trump backed and anointed candidates Walker and Loeffler. Republican Kemp won the governor’s race by 8 points over Abrams while Trump endorsed candidate were losing. Plenty of ticket splitting here in both elections. I’d say around 10% of republicans are never Trumpers down here, now if Harris can win Georgia independents, she will most likely win Georgia as democrats are united behind her.

A note of clarification.

Despite the fact I haven't seen the entire list, I am fairly certain these folks will not support nor vote for Trump because they dislike him, or his actions, his behavior, nor his lies. If they had, they would have not supported him in previous elections, but they did. Even his lies and rantings about a stolen election would not nor did it persuade any of them to not support Trump. Now don't get me wrong. They probably did not believe any of those things were qualities they admire in a candidate, but they were not deal breakers.

What was the final straw was Trump's attempted coup. These folks recognized that anyone who even thought about being a dictator for a day was definitely capable of destroying American Democracy as was clearly evidenced by the J6. It is hard to imagine anyone, let alone a former occupant of the WH, would on any day, incite a crowd to march on the Capitol in riotous fashion, and even more so on the day of certification of electoral votes. Then we learn his allies had conspired with several groups to actually lead an insurrection. And then as if not enough, Trump refused to stop the insurrection even though he had control of their actions.

Any person who would do all of that and more is not fit to be president, nor dogcatcher.

A note about abortion as an issue.

Apparently both AR and MO courts have stayed petitions on Nov ballot for abortion rights. In both cases the judges issued the orders based on technical grounds i.e. petitions were not properly "formed". This could be an issue with Republican voters who would otherwise split their vote, to rebuff the courts "interference".

How many people supported Trump? How many voted for Trump as the lesser of two evils? Doing so doesn’t mean they supported Trump, he just happened to be the candidate they wanted to lose the least among the two major candidates. Although many wanted both to lose.

2016 46.1% voted for Trump over Clinton who received 48.3%, But 25% of the entire electorate disliked, disapproved, didn’t want neither Trump nor Clinton as their next president which included 54% of all independents which eventually went to Trump 46-42 with 12% voting third party against both. Third party voters in 2016, 5.7% of all those who voted. Voter turnout was a low 52% using VAP, 137 million which is hard telling how many of that 25% which disliked and didn’t want neither Trump nor Clinton as the next president stayed home, saying to hades with it, not bothering to vote.

In 2020, 46.9% voted for Trump, 51.3% for Biden, third party vote 1.8%, voter turnout, a high 62% using VAP, 160 million. Independents voted for Biden 54-41 over Trump with 5% voting third party against both. The dislike and unwanted factor for both major party candidates dropped to 12% down from 25% in 2016. That helps explain the high voter turnout which this country hasn’t seen since the 1960’s.

This year against Biden Trump has failed to top 47%, his largest lead against Biden 44-39. His highest percentage against Biden was 44.2%. Keep in mind in the Biden vs. Trump rematch the third-party vote was between 12-15%. Against Harris, Trump’s high was 46.1% of the vote. He still hasn’t topped 47% either in 2016, 2020 or this year. Trump’s high against Harris 45.1%.

I’d like to give you the percentage of those voters who disliked and don’t want neither Harris nor Trump as the next president this year. But neither Gallup nor Pew Research has released a poll showing that. In the Biden vs. Trump rematch, the percentage who disliked and didn’t want neither Trump nor Biden as the next president was at 29%. I assume that’s been cut in half if not dropping more since Harris replaced Biden.

The point of this outside of Trump may have a threshold of 47% of all voters is that many who voted for Trump and support him this year view him as the lesser of two evils, the candidate they want to lose the least. Not that they want him, he’s viewed as the least worse major party candidate. I’d estimate given the numbers, these and more, that less than 40% of this nation is MAGA, 100% Trumpsters or die hard Trump supporters. But that doesn’t mean Trump won’t receive a much higher vote total due to those who vote for who they view as the lesser of two evils or the candidate they dislike and don’t want the least. Keep in mind that independents now make up 41% of the electorate, they became independents because they disliked both major parties.

I can’t image Trump polling well after his debate performance. Karma at work.

The Trump campaign said he aced it ... so he should get a bump in polling

Trump’s ego is glass. VP Harris shattered that glass.

Trump is forever broken.

Trump’s worse fear has happened: People are laughing at him

Don’t expect much if any movement in the polls because of the debate. Past debates have produced little to no movement. What I have observed is that those who tune into the debates have their minds already made up as to who they’ll vote for. They tune in to root their favorite candidate on, to root against the other candidate. They’re more for crowing than anything else. The undecided don’t tune them in. Yes, the pundits and political talk show hosts make a really big deal about them. But in the end, after they’re over, any gain or loss is by the tenths of a point.

Perhaps if one was held a week prior to election, it might be different. But then again, with early and mail in voting, half of those who vote would have already done so. There’s no doubt Harris won big time. But did that big-time win make a difference in who folks plan on voting for? Keep an eye on the polls for the next two weeks to see if any change in the polling numbers occur outside of the normal ups and downs of the campaign polling. Harris leads Trump by 1.1 point in the two-candidate race polling and by 1.9 in the nationwide multi-candidate polling. These are your base line or figures to gauge whether or not the debate had any effect. After two weeks the debate is old news and become irrelevant. Other issues, events, happenings take its place.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...mp-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west