Here’s the latest skinny. Harris has a 2.2-point lead in the popular vote, still within the MOE though. Looking back to 2016 and 2020 October 10, 2020: Biden had a 10.0 lead, 10 October 2016, Clinton a 5.8-point lead. The odds of Harris winning the popular vote is around 54%. Biden and Clinton both won the popular vote. Harris’s lead is much smaller, and I’ll add iffier. Harris has been stuck with that 2-point lead give a tenth of a point or two since 21 August. Neither side has any momentum, this race has stagnated.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...mp-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west

The electoral college, the 7 battleground states are all within the MOE and all so very close. The difference in 4 of the 7 is less than a single percentage point with the other 3 ranging from 1.0 to 1.3. Which in my book when considering the average MOE of plus or minus 4 points for these 7 states, is a tie in all of them. A matter of a few thousand votes in each will probably decide the winner. Without these 7 battleground states Harris has a slight 226-219 lead over Trump. The odds in any of these states must remain at 50-50. That’s my odds.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

Maybe Kaine is correct. In an election this close I do expect a ton of lawsuits. So perhaps the SCOTUS will end up deciding.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.