Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Election Issues What happens if Trump actually does it?

Trump has been a failure in anything he has ever done except one thing - Politics! He has done well here whether you like him or not - its a simple fact. I suspect that, in itself, could probably be a subject for thought, anyway... Recently he has been claiming, regularly, that he is going to fix the Ukraine problem. Everybody, I think, is just ignoring that one. Think about it a minute. What if that happens? We are in the midst of an election and he is part of that one. Right now he might lose but, what if Trump the peacemaker gets the Russians to knock it off and pull out of Ukraine and Putin tells the world that it was the clever thoughts of Trump to get that done? I do NOT want that man to win but, if that happens? All bets are off.

Now, Russia. Russia is in trouble. Russians themselves are not exactly happy with what is going on, Thousands of its citizens who were the right age to join the military left the country, etc. They are currently reliant on North Korea for their weapons. Russia has lost most of its European customers and needs money badly, and we must not forget that Trump and Putin remain the very best of pals and friends. This would also get Putin out of a mess of his doing as well as having the president of the United States as his very best pal.

Anyway, I just thought I would mention this one. When it comes to politics, Trump has proven that he has political chops. You may not like him, you may laugh at him, etc. but this simple fact is that when he starts harping on something regularly there just might be something there. This one scares the crap out of me!

I don't want to think about it. Especially if the house and senate both go GOP!

The way I figure it, the democrats have 23 currently held seats at risk of switching in the house to the republicans 21. But there’re different categories in the at-risk field. They’re not all even or the same. The democrats will retain more of their at-risk seats than the GOP along with gaining more currently help GOP seats than the republican gain Democratic held seats.. Throw in the generic congressional ballot which the Democrats are 1.8 points in the lead, which translate in a probable gain of 8 seats if the election were held today. Which would give the democrats a 221-214 advantage. Regaining control of the House.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/2024/generic-congressional-vote

The senate, currently a 51-49 democratic edge. West Virginia is gone, a MAGA republican will replace Manchin which the democrats wanted gone anyway. The democrats got their wish or want concerning Manchin. Leaving the senate, a 50-50 tie. Everything revolves around Montana as to who controls the senate. Montana if the election were held today would go to the republicans, they would regain control of the senate 51-49. All other seats look fairly safe for the incumbent party.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/montana/sheehy-vs-tester

the presidency is a 50-50 proposition, all nationwide polls along with all 7 battleground states are all within the MOE. Making the presidential election a dead heat, a 100% pure tossup.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...mp-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

For me, Pennsylvania is the key. Whoever wins Pennsylvania will win the presidency.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris

Perotista;

It just continues to confuse me. It just make no sense to vote for Trump. He is, yet again, under the gun of the courts from something he has been able to bury for months and then his vice president released his notes and its fair game again. This time it is, as far as I can tell, something to do with messing with stuff which is against the law AND the constitution! We will see when it gets to the Supremes and how they are going to say that this was a thing he did as president or not. If they say its a thing he did as as president then its ok because, I guess, if you are president you get to over throw the United States of America. Oh, one other little problem. If Trump wins this one it all goes away!

I think its pretty easy to note that there are really serious things being decided and its all about the next election. Oh, one other little thing, it also seems as if the Trump folk have worked, very hard, to set up this and that so that they can actually control, exactly, the election and how it all ends. One can only wonder if our existing government is ready and able to deal with this all.

Anyway, you work hard at what you do. My problem with it all is that it may not make any difference if Trump gets his way and, that, tends to set me off a bit. I also think that if he fails this time he is done. My own personal thought is that its time for him to go - who says that wishful thinking doesn't count?

If I understood the SCOTUS ruling, if whatever a president does, decision made, etc. falls within the official duties of the office of the president, the president is immune. But if whatever he does or did, whatever decision made doesn’t fall within the official duties of the office of the president, the president is liable for his actions as any of us would be. Now I don’t speak legalese, heck, I don’t even understand legalese. This is how I understood it. The big question is how does one define the official duties of the president from those that are not official duties? That was left up to the courts, judges to decide.

As for voting for Trump, going by historical numbers, percentages, 40% of the population will vote for Trump or against any democrat. How many of that 40% are actually voting for Trump and how many are voting against any democrat due to ideological and political differences can be debated. There’s probably no way to come up with an accurate or even a ballpark figure. I tried numerous scenarios and models, but everything I tried comes up short. It amounts to a wild guess which probably would be way off.

The bottom line is Trump will get his 40%, Harris will get her 40% whether those voters are for Trump or Harris as in the person they want as the next president or are against one or the other political party, against the other party’s political ideology, philosophy etc. Those who would vote for Genghis Kahn or Atilla the Hun if they were their party’s nominee against Mother Terresa if she was the other party’s nominee.

Next question would be about the remaining 20% who basically don’t have any political ideology or philosophy, why would they vote for Trump? This latter 20% don’t pay much attention to politics in general if they pay any attention at all. Maybe they liked Trump’s slogan, maybe they heard something on TV they liked about him or disliked about Harris. Maybe they just flipped a coin or that’s who mom and dad are voting for or a peer? I don’t know and I’m not going to guess.

To be honest, I thought when all these indictments came down, federal, New York and Georgia that would destroy Trump. They didn’t. I thought when Trump sat in a court room and was found guilty in the NY fraud case and the E.J. Carrol case, that would be his end. Didn’t happened. Why that wasn’t the case, I don’t know. It makes no sense to me. I understand the partisan issues and party loyalty. That is in a normal era, but the Trump era has been anything but normal. Normalcy and sanity have deserted us I’m afraid jgw, your answers lies with someone else.

to paraphrase My Fair Lady .... I think he's got it!!!!

bout time

Dread settling in ... The Donald will name me, and anyone who has posted anti-Trump comments, as enemies of the state ... he will shut down this site

I have a 2016 vibe

I think if he wins, it won't be because he won the popular vote. He will somehow be installed by SCOTUS.

Here’s the latest skinny. Harris has a 2.2-point lead in the popular vote, still within the MOE though. Looking back to 2016 and 2020 October 10, 2020: Biden had a 10.0 lead, 10 October 2016, Clinton a 5.8-point lead. The odds of Harris winning the popular vote is around 54%. Biden and Clinton both won the popular vote. Harris’s lead is much smaller, and I’ll add iffier. Harris has been stuck with that 2-point lead give a tenth of a point or two since 21 August. Neither side has any momentum, this race has stagnated.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...mp-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west

The electoral college, the 7 battleground states are all within the MOE and all so very close. The difference in 4 of the 7 is less than a single percentage point with the other 3 ranging from 1.0 to 1.3. Which in my book when considering the average MOE of plus or minus 4 points for these 7 states, is a tie in all of them. A matter of a few thousand votes in each will probably decide the winner. Without these 7 battleground states Harris has a slight 226-219 lead over Trump. The odds in any of these states must remain at 50-50. That’s my odds.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

Maybe Kaine is correct. In an election this close I do expect a ton of lawsuits. So perhaps the SCOTUS will end up deciding.

If Trump wins outright, no doubt the Dems will file suits alleging ... irregularities of various kinds. If these suits are heard before Trump appointees, almost certainly Trump wins. If the Courts rule in favor of the Dems, who will enforce the order? Will the Courts use harsh language to persuade .... can anyone frakking envision the scenario Court order will have to be enforced by force? ... local venues to adhere to the orders. There is already precedent of a couple of states which have ignored Court orders ... and guess what .... not a frakkng thing anyone can do about it. The system was designed to inherently depend on the integrity of elected officials to follow the law. Just not true in the MAGA world.

MAGA didn't like the outcome of the last election and Trump led an insurrection. This time they are prepared and have a bevvy of willing loyalists who will sacrifice Democracy on the altar of Trump.

If it goes to the House ... Trump wins. If it goes to the lower Courts ... Trump wins. If it goes to the SC .... well we saw what they did in 2000.