Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

Rick, you also need to keep track of these, the battleground, swing or tossup states. Without these 7 battleground states Harris has a slim 226-219 lead over Trump. The average MOE of these battleground states is plus or minus 5 points.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

I agree Mr P

National polls mean little as high population states would contribute more to one candidate or the other. The states for which the winning numbers were closerl suggest a more evenly divided electorate and thus more opportunity for better random samples.

Based on everything Mr P has typed and seeing the latest polling ... still a tossup in my opinion ...

Going back over these polls this AM, I’d like to add one thing, the MOE or Margin of Error the polls have. Nationally, the average MOE in the polls is plus or minus 2.5 points. Harris has a 2.6-point lead as of 0700hrs this AM. Applying the MOE simply means Harris could be leading by as much 5.1 points or as small a 0.1 point nationwide.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...mp-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west

The battleground states have a MOE somewhere between plus or minus 3 to 5 points. Taking Pennsylvania, which I think is the key state in this election. Whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the election. The average MOE is plus or minus 3.5 points. Harris leads by 0.7 points which when applying the MOE, she could have a lead of 4.2 points or be behind by 2.8 points.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/pennsylvania/trump-vs-harris

Anything within the MOE I always rate a basic tie. When looking at the battleground states, each has their own MOE. Arizona 3.6 plus or minus, Nevada 3.6, Wisconsin 3.5, Michigan 3.7, Pennsylvania 3.5, North Carolina 3.4, Georgia 3.5.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

Since neither Trump nor Harris has a lead which falls outside the MOE, I rate all 7 of the battlegound states a tossup. As long as neither candidate has a lead of more than or outside the MOE, it’s a basic tie in my book. If one reads the fine print in all these polls, they’ll tell you the polls stand a 95% chance of being accurate within the plus or minus range of the MOE.

It should not even be this way. It is grotesque that an adjudicated sexual assaulter, adjudicated business fraudster, who been convicted of 34-felonies, who calls our troops “suckers” and “losers,” who is on trial for trying to overthrow the U.S. government, and who had sex with a porn star while his wife was pregnant, is this close to being POTUS.

Rick, in today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide, the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship, you’re going to have 45% of the electorate vote republican, 45% vote democratic regardless of who the candidates are. Then we have the final 10% known as swing voters. But they’re not political savvy, don’t pay much attention to politics, none of the daily grind of politics and or government. Call them little informed or not informed at all. This final 10% are your election deciders.

In this election, Harris and Trump have started off with 45% each. No major party candidate will ever get below that 45%, not in today’s modern political era anyway. Whereas against Biden, Trump had the edge with this final 10%, Harris flipped that edge around. She has a slight edge today. That is nationally, not state by state. This is just the way it is, like it or not. It’s like straight party line votes in congress today, 30 years ago, that was unheard of and never seen. But we were in a different political era back then.

Voting simply because an (R) is putting party before country. It shows these people are incapable of thinking OR reasoning and that is why they come to asinine and faulty conclusions.

Rick ... little did you know all of what you typed are liberal lies from the fake media and the SDP (Satanic Democrat Party). And of course all the well known demonstrable and provable lies he tells his supporters is absolutely the truth ... because he says it's the truth.

Trump is above the law and is Savior of America ... ask any MAGA.

Perhaps Rick, but history shows that since 2000 that republicans have voted for their candidate/s 92% if the time while democrats have voted for their candidate/s 91% of the time. The only years which fell below those averages was in 2000 when 91% of republicans voted for Bush and 87% of democrats voted for Gore, 2004 when 89% of democrats voted for Kerry, 2008 when 90% of republicans voted for McCain, in 2016 when 89% of democrats voted for Clinton, 88% of republicans for Trump. All other elections both major parties voted for their candidate/s at least on average of 92% for the GOP and 91% for the democrats or above.

In 2020, 94% from both major parties voted for their candidates, Trump and Biden. The political reality is the base of both major parties vote the letter, not the candidate. This wasn’t true when one goes back further into history, pre 2000. Sure, a good majority voted the letter but that varied like in 1980 when only 67% of democrats voted for Carter or in 1984 when 74% of democrats voted for Mondale. But back in those years both major parties still had their conservative and liberal wings. That was in a completely different political era. By 2000 both major parties had gotten rid of their unwanted wings, the democrats of their conservative southern wing, the republican of their liberal Rockefeller liberal northeast wing. I can still remember when the northeast was fairly solid republican and the south totally solid democratic.

This year, the party break down with Harris having a 48-46 lead over Trump nationally is democrats 96% voting for Harris/1% for Trump. Republicans 92% for Trump/5% for Harris. The democrats are voting for their candidate above the historical average of 91%, the republicans are right on their historical average of 92%. Independents are now trending 41% Harris, 40% Trump, 7% third party candidates, Stein, West, Oliver etc. with 11% undecided.

Party affiliation/identification is even at 30% each for the major parties. But that’s another story for another day when on looks at the historical averages. Since we’ve entered today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide, the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship era, independents have risen from 30% of the electorate up to 40% today.

What are the chances of a 269-269 tie in the electoral college? Perhaps more than one would think. It all depends on the outcome of Maine 2 along with Nebraska 2 congressional districts. A couple of examples, if Trump wins Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Harris the other 4 tossup states but Trump loses Maine 2 with Harris taking Nebraska 2, that’s a 269-269 tie. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, but loses the other 4 tossup states, Trump wins both Nebraska 2 and Maine 2, you have your 269-269 tie.

In which case the House of Representatives would decide the presidency, the senate the Vice President. Which brings another weird scenario into play. We could end up with a democratic president and a republican vice president or vice versa, a republican president with a democratic vice president if control of both of these chambers remain divided.

The odds are long to this happening, I’d say much more than you or I winning the lottery. But it is a possibility.

It's worse than you think.

You're only looking at it from the last point. The real fight is in the local election boards, which in swing states half are controlled by election deniers. I predict if Trump loses the real actual vote count, there will be no certifications from the election denying boards. What legal processes are available? It is unknown, but certainly this is known ... no court has the authority to enforce a judgment. Think about it. It won't matter what the courts say ... it only matters who has the political power and the political will to enforce whatever "rule of their law" they decide to impose on the rest of us.

And if anyone thinks it can't happen in America .... well let me remind you of Jan 6 ... a sitting occupant of the WH led an insurrection to overthrow the incoming government.