Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 On The Treadmill to Political Defeat?

Actually abortion wasn’t “baked into the equation” as evidence of abortion being on the ballot. White women voted to codify abortion in four of the five states, then turned around and voted for the guy who caused the problem.

The fact is white women don’t want a woman president.

We’ll have to disagree there based on who women voted for in both this year presidential and in the midterms of 2022. Here’s something else, of the 5 swing states which had both a presidential and senate race, 4 of those 5, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona went to Trump, but elected a democratic senator. Rounding off, in Michigan 100,000 voters voted for Trump, then turned around and voted for Democrat Slotkin. In Wisconsin 60,000 voters voted for Trump, then switched to democrat Baldwin in the senate race. Nevada, 70,000 voters voted for Trump, then flipped to the democrat Rosen. Arizona had the biggest difference or the most ticket splitters, 210,000 voted for Trump, then switched to democrat Gallego. Only in Pennsylvania did voters vote for both Trump and the republican senate candidate, McCormick. Both Trump and McCormick won by approximately 45,000 votes. Georgia and North Carolina didn’t have a senate race this year.

Going over the exit polls for those 4 states which voted for Trump, then voted for their democratic senator, I can’t find a common denominator why so many voters would ticket split. The only thing all 7 swing states which went to Trump was they disapproved of the job Biden and his administration has done over the last 4 years, somewhere between 54-58% depending on the state. Which can explain why all 7 went to Trump, but not why 4 out the 5 states which had senate races at the same time voted for their democratic senator with the exception of Pennsylvania. Perhaps ticket splitting which has been basically absent for the last 20 years is back in vogue. Especially since the rise in the independent vote from 30% in 2006 up to 41% this year. Independents are much more likely to take each candidate into account and not the political party. Any ideas?

Your post only reinforces the view that women, especially white women, don’t want a woman POTUS, as evident by ticket-splitting.

Hmm, lets see. Gender by race. White men 60-37 Trump, white women 53-45 Harris, black men 77-21 Harris, black women 91-7 Harris, Hispanic men 55-43 Trump, Hispanic women 60-38 Harris.

Nationally men 55-42 Trump, women 53-45 Harris.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/0

Only twice since 1972 have the democrats won the men’s vote. 1976 Carter 50-48 over Ford and in 2008, Obama over McCain 49-48. The republicans have won the woman’s vote 4 times since 1972, all a very long time ago. 1972 Nixon over McGovern 61-37, 1980 Reagan over Carter 47-45, 1984 Reagan over Mondale 56-44 and in 1988, G.H.W. Bush 50-48 over Dukakis.

Race, Trump won the white vote 57-41 over Harris. Since 1972 no democrat has won the white vote. Harris won the black vote 85-13, Trump’s 13% of the black was the most by any republican presidential candidate since Gerald Ford received 15% back in 1976. Harris won the Hispanic vote 53-46 over Trump. Trump’s 46% of the Hispanic vote was the most ever for a republican presidential candidate. G.W. Bush is now in second place, the previous high of 40% back in 2004.