Turnout tells us a lot of voters who voted in 2020 stayed home in 2024. It lets us know Trump didn’t increase his vote total from 2020, he matched it. 74 million and change to 74 million and change. It tells us Trump’s voters in 2020 were loyal to him in 2024, they turned out. Biden received 81.5 million votes in 2020, Harris is residing at 70.5 million with a few more votes to be counted. 11 million Biden voters opted to sit this one, 2024 out by staying home and not voting. For the very first time that I have numbers on, more republicans turned out to vote this year, 35% of those who actually voted to 31% for the democrats. Which is weird since the democrats had the larger base of voters, 31-28% according to Gallup.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/0Blue collar voters, the working class went to Trump 50-46 over Harris. First time voters went to Trump 56-43, Trump won the white vote 57-41, Harris won the black vote 85-13 over Trump. But that 13% of the black vote was the highest percentage for any republican presidential candidate going back to Gerald Ford who received 15% in 1976. Harris won Hispanics 52-46, but that 46% was the highest ever percentage of the Hispanic vote any republican ever received. Until this year, no republican has ever topped 40%. Trump carried the rural 64-34 and the suburban vote 51-47 leaving Harris to win the urban vote 59-38. Men went to Trump 55-42, Harris carried the women 53-45. By race, White men 60-37 Trump, white women 53-45 Trump, black men 77-21 Harris, Trump getting 21% of black men’s vote, unheard of, black women 91-7 Harris, more along historical lines, average. Now get this Hispanic men 55-43 Trump. That’s right, Hispanic men voted for Trump, never happened before. Hispanic women 60-38 Harris. And on and on.
But the deciding factor for me wasn’t who voted for who. Trump got his 74 million, the same as in 2020. It was who didn’t vote. Why when the democrats had the larger base, didn’t they have more voters turnout, why did the democratic base let more republicans vote this year than democrats? Why did 11 million Biden voters in 2020 decide on staying home, not voting in 2024? Who voted for who is interesting. Harris won the independent vote 49-46. Had the democratic base turned out, Harris would be heading to the white house instead of going back to California. Republicans have a long history of getting their base out to vote, democrats not so much.
