Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

That would be nice to know for sure!

A couple of thoughts come to me.

Maybe they saw all of the celebrities and figured with all of the celebrities fans, their individual votes were not needed.

Didn't have enough faith in Harris to vote at all.

Were physically afraid to go to the voting location thinking they could be injured.

Didn't think or hear about the threats to democracy.

I think way too many are either unable, too lazy or just don't care enough to keep up with current events.

EDIT:

There is one more thing I thought of. Harris' policies. For example, I know I was curious to hear more about the plan to give all new home buyers $25,000 towards a new home down payment. Where was that money going to come from? That's the first policy that comes to mind.

Your last bullet point rings a bell. The average voter turnout percentage since 1960 is 55%. 2020 was an exceptionally high voter turnout of 62.8%. Which was close to the norm between 1952-1968. Voter turnout of above 60% in all 5 of those presidential elections except 1956 when 59.3% turned out. Since then we had two very low voter turnouts, 49.0% in 1996 and 50.3% in 1988.

5 of the last 6 presidential election have had below the average of 55% voter turnout with 2020 being the exception. Perhaps people just don’t care. My son may be the classic example. He’s 55 and never voted. He says Washington going to do what Washington wants to do regardless of what the people want. We’re screwed no matter who wins or who’s president.

The reason they take credit is the electorate is "stupid". Only corroborates my contention.

But reality doesn't matter to MAGA. An analogy would be to study the debris field of a bomb explosion without studying the actual explosion. The cause of the 2021 inflation began under the Trump's presidency, but MAGA selectively and ignorantly believes Pres Biden enacted an EO bringing the supply chain to a grinding halt. Had Trump been in office another year. he would have to explain the inflation rate, which I suspect he would blame on ... everyone under the sun ... without realizing the actual culprit was how capitalism reacts when the supply chain is disrupted.

The electorate is stupid.

Perhaps it’s time to take stock where things stand today. We all know Trump won the presidency. Also the republicans have regained control of senate by a 53-45 margin with Nevada and Arizona yet to be called. The GOP flipped Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio and Montana.

Now the all-important House of Representatives. The republicans have a 213-202 lead with 20 districts yet to be decided or called. 10 incumbents for each party in the remaining 20. The Republicans so far have flipped 6 democratic held seats to 5 flipped republican seats for the democrats.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/r...flipped=false&filter-remaining=false

The house will probably end up just about right where it was prior to this year’s election, 221-214 Republican, give or take a seat or two.

Where’d the voters come from?
That’s the real interesting numbers, IMO. Turnout tells very little.
Working class is moving steadily into the Republican column as Dems, over and over again, demonstrate a hard on to become Romney republicans. What a knee slapper seeing them kiss the arses if the Cheney’s. Only to come up bupkiss for that elusive suburban Republican vote they’ve had such a wide on for decades now.
They thought they had it. An amalgam of sexual/racial identity wrapped in meaningless good vibes organized by a committee who’s only singular talent is setting monstrous piles of cash on fire. They stand for nothing cuz they believe in nothing cept their own regard.
Or as the late, great Graber surmised..

Contemporary liberalism

Turnout tells us a lot of voters who voted in 2020 stayed home in 2024. It lets us know Trump didn’t increase his vote total from 2020, he matched it. 74 million and change to 74 million and change. It tells us Trump’s voters in 2020 were loyal to him in 2024, they turned out. Biden received 81.5 million votes in 2020, Harris is residing at 70.5 million with a few more votes to be counted. 11 million Biden voters opted to sit this one, 2024 out by staying home and not voting. For the very first time that I have numbers on, more republicans turned out to vote this year, 35% of those who actually voted to 31% for the democrats. Which is weird since the democrats had the larger base of voters, 31-28% according to Gallup.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/0

Blue collar voters, the working class went to Trump 50-46 over Harris. First time voters went to Trump 56-43, Trump won the white vote 57-41, Harris won the black vote 85-13 over Trump. But that 13% of the black vote was the highest percentage for any republican presidential candidate going back to Gerald Ford who received 15% in 1976. Harris won Hispanics 52-46, but that 46% was the highest ever percentage of the Hispanic vote any republican ever received. Until this year, no republican has ever topped 40%. Trump carried the rural 64-34 and the suburban vote 51-47 leaving Harris to win the urban vote 59-38. Men went to Trump 55-42, Harris carried the women 53-45. By race, White men 60-37 Trump, white women 53-45 Trump, black men 77-21 Harris, Trump getting 21% of black men’s vote, unheard of, black women 91-7 Harris, more along historical lines, average. Now get this Hispanic men 55-43 Trump. That’s right, Hispanic men voted for Trump, never happened before. Hispanic women 60-38 Harris. And on and on.

But the deciding factor for me wasn’t who voted for who. Trump got his 74 million, the same as in 2020. It was who didn’t vote. Why when the democrats had the larger base, didn’t they have more voters turnout, why did the democratic base let more republicans vote this year than democrats? Why did 11 million Biden voters in 2020 decide on staying home, not voting in 2024? Who voted for who is interesting. Harris won the independent vote 49-46. Had the democratic base turned out, Harris would be heading to the white house instead of going back to California. Republicans have a long history of getting their base out to vote, democrats not so much.

So on ethnic lines Trump increased his vote share? Well I’ll be. Kinda hard to stick him with the racist win mebbe? That voters have concerns that go beyond identity and are trying their luck elsewhere?
So lower income moved into the Republican column and away from the Dems? Shocker. Affluent upper incomes into Dem Corp? I’m gobsmacked.
So Michigan left the blue column and into the red? Sheesh, what’s been going on to make that happen.. again.
So Dem Corp eliminated a primary competition and chose who Dem voters would get to vote for in a much more visible way this cycle and the reliables didn’t turn up as before? Shocking. She did so well on Martha’s Vineyard… there was a process!
So registered disaffected Republicans didn’t move to the blue column? Better luck next time. Mebbe find a more repugnant Republican war criminal to bring to the dance than the Cheney’s. Mebbe move more to the right and they’ll start to notice how you’ve developed over the summer.
So Jill Stien won 2nd in Dearborn? Trump placed 1st? Who’d a thunk it? Ethnically cleansing voters families is unpopular I suppose. Maybe the Cheney’s could have done better outreach here.
So the Yutes moved in the Trump direction after having their concerns scorned and belittled? Ungrateful!

All this to say it’s hard to beat something with nothing and a whole ton of cash. What was the burn rate of Dem Corp compared to Trumps?

But yes… it’s the voters fault. Why not throw in some foriegn interference while your at it. The wrong kind. Not the good kind. Seems ethno fascists are the good kind usually. Left wing socialist? Not so much.

The ballot initiatives are also interesting. Especially the ones passed in red states… kinda cuts against excuse narratives…

The democrats had a huge cash advantage and has had that cash advantage ever since 2008 when Obama outraised and spent McCain 745 million to 368 million. Obama cash advantage over Romney 814 million to 628 million. 2016 Clinton 1.1 billion to Trump’s 646.8 million, 2020 Biden 1.6 billion, Trump 1.1 billion, 2024 Harris 1.65 billion, Trump 1.1 billion

https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race

https://www.opensecrets.org/2020-presidential-race

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/

https://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/

https://www.opensecrets.org/pres08

Outside of voter turnout, I’d say Harris’s campaign of I’m not Trump didn’t work. It worked for Biden in 2020, but that was because elections are a referendum on the sitting president’s job performance. This year’s election was a referendum on the Biden administration. Harris couldn’t overcome the 56% of all Americans who disapproved of the job Biden and his administration had done. Even with Trump as Harris’s opponent. I thought she could and would. I was mistaken.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/approval-rating

No sitting president has won reelection nor the sitting president’s replacement won the next election with an overall job approval of below 50% These elections was when a sitting president job approval was below 50%. None of them won, not Stevenson, Truman’s replacement in 1950, not Humphrey, LBJ’s replacement in 1968, Ford lost reelection in 1976, Carter lost reelection in 1980, G.H.W. Bush lost reelection in 1992, McCain G.W. Bush’s replace lost in 2008, Trump lost in 2020 and now Harris, Biden’s replacement lost in 2024.

It takes 1 to 2 years for a presidents policies to take effect. Trump was riding on Obama’s policies. Trump did nothing his first year - even though he dad a Republican House and Senate. He finally got the tax cut in very late December 2017. Then in 2018, Trump initiated tariffs that harmed the American consumer and the American farmer. In fact, Trump had to compensated the American farmers for their losses. Trump’s policies became in effect in 2019 and 2020. 2020 is when the economy tanked.

Trump will take credit for ol' Joe's economic turn around, just as Trump took credit for eight years of Obama economic policy. The orange clown doesn't understand that tariffs harm consumers.

White woman are jealous of other successful women. Plus white women don't believe that there should be a woman president. Muslims stayed home because they thought VP Harris' Gaza policy would be the same as ol' Joe's.