Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

This might interest you Rick. Comparing 2020 to 2024 gender by race

White men 2020 60-37 Trump, 2024 61-38 Trump
White women 2020 55-44 Trump, 2024 53-45 Trump – Not much difference
Black men 2020 79-19 Biden, 2024 77-21 Harris
Black women 2020 90-9 Biden, 2024 91-7 Harris
Hispanic men 2020 59-36 Biden, 2024 55-43 Trump – Huge difference – from voting for Biden 2020 to voting for Trump in 2024. That’s from a plus 23 points for Biden to a minus 12. A swing of 35 points toward Trump.
Hispanic women 2020 69-30 Biden, 2024 60-38 Harris - Another big difference. From a plus 39 for Biden to a plus 22 for Harris. A swing of 17 points in favor of Trump.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president/0

Trump gained a point among white men and women from his 2020 showing, gained 2 points among black men, lost 2 points among black women. It was Hispanics that gave Trump his win. Trump gained 19 points above his 2020 performance from Hispanic men and gained 8 points from Hispanic women. Trump owes his election win to the minority Hispanic vote, not from whites. Who would have thought?

Now do class alignment..

Or age cohort?

Or pick any frame you want and declare the source of the defeat has been identified and milk the next several weeks going on talk shows, internet platforms or ol timey print media and make bank professing to have the answers.

Dem Corp lost the supreme courts for decades. The culture, they’re last redoubt, is now a minority one. The working class looks to have found another place to go. Ditto what’s left of the unions. They’ve made an alliance of the working class (whom they despise) and the oligarchs. A very dark arrangement.

It seems like the one off circumstances surrounding the 2020 election victory allowed Dem Corp to think they could win it with a similar approach in 2024. Here’s your candidate we’ve decided you should vote for. Nothing will change..

Or it was Hispanic men. Whatever..

Chunk, there’s probably a million and one reasons for this defeat, not one single reason, but a combination of many. Yes, there’s been a reversal for the blue collar, working class, which was once a democratic party bastion, while the college educated were republicans. The reversals started in 2008 and it seems was completed this year. Trump actually won the union vote in Wisconsin while narrowly losing it in Michigan and Pennsylvania and on and on. The trend is for the old rust belt Midwest trending red republican while the south with a couple of exceptions is trending blue, democratic. There is a realignment taking place. Slowly but surely.

There has been movement from 2000-2024 for the states from red to blue or blue to red. Below is the movement based on PVI, Partisan Voting Index along with their number of electoral votes for the 2024 presidential election. I only included swing states, no solid red or blue states.

Arizona from an R+6 down to an R+2. Moving blue. 11 electoral votes
Florida from R+1 to a R+3 getting slightly redder. 30 electoral votes
Georgia from a R+10 down to an R+2 Moving blue 16 electoral votes
Michigan from a D+6 to a R+1 Moving Red 15 electoral votes
Minnesota from a D+10 down to a D+2 moving Red 10 electoral votes
Nevada from D+3 to R+1 Moving Red 6 electoral votes
North Carolina from an R+9 down to a R+3 moving blue 16 electoral votes
Ohio From an R+4 up to an R+6 Becoming more red 17 electoral votes
Pennsylvania from D+4 to R+1 moving red 19 electoral votes
Texas from an R+10 down to an R+5 moving blue 40 electoral votes
Wisconsin from a D+10 to a R+1 moving red 10 electoral votes

Things change, swing states become solid states while solid states move into the swing state category. I was around when the south was solid democratic while the northeast belonged to the old liberal Rockefeller republicans. California was a red state until 1992 when it turned solid blue, Texas was blue until 1976 when it became solid red, now is trending back to blue. Change is constant, but change continues.

Perotista,
I understand changing demographics and political alignments. Don’t need a spreadsheet for that.
Voters are not states and don’t fit neatly into spreadsheets. Yes, I agree it was many reasons for this electoral wipeout of the current manifestation of the Democratic corporation. Math calculations to prove who’s to blame won’t cut it. This wasn’t close.

I expect more haughty pouting and hack blaming. That’s SOP from this coalition. Funny to read them though.

What’s interesting is the realignment of the Republican corporation. Who and why. You can look at numbers all day or simply drive around. Material conditions matter. Always have. Narrative control not so much when times get tough. Though it’s satisfying to see one B.S. train get derailed, I don’t look forward to the evening bigger one that’s just pulled into the station.

Only bright spot is T-bone looks less bloodthirsty for war as Dem Corp. probably continue the Dem’s genocide of Gaza though. Maybe even get us tangled up with Iran. Keeping Dem darlings Pompeo, Bolton Haley and the rest of the Neocons at arm’s length may help some to resist the bi-partisan slaughtering. Not hopeful though.

This will have cultural implications to boot for decades to come. Crazy oligarchs with their libertarian beliefs (they can afford them) allied with a right wing populist movement. The left wing populist option was denied. Twice. Should be interesting to see how much neoliberal culture gets rooted up and replaced with what from this new coalition. Who knows.. maybe a simple culturally conservative, economically liberal one? One things for sure, culture wars will resume at full tempo. Gotta keep the dirty and horseless fighting over something besides universal material benefits. Amiright?

By the way, 45-60 yr. old block was the strongest supporting age cohort of Trump. I don’t know what that means. Maybe they’re super racist?

The only thing I would add is the popular vote is close. That only the electoral college makes this election look like a route. Only 2.3 points separate Harris from Trump. There’s been only 5 other presidential elections where the vote total was closer, only 2 since 1900. 1960 with Nixon and JFK, JFK 49.72%, Nixon 49.55% of the vote when JFK won the popular vote by a mere 120,000. Then again in 2000, Gore vs. G.W. Bush. 48.4% to 47.9%, Gore winning the popular vote by 544,000. JFK ran away with the electoral college, Bush squeaked by.

I don’t know what the Trump administration will do or how they’ll govern. There’s a lot of perceived ideas out there about that, but most of those perceived ideas won’t come about. However Trump and company govern, I predict it will be unpopular. His job approval will be in the pits. That the democrats will make a solid comeback in the 2026 midterms, possiblity a blue wave and reclaim the White House in 2028.

Agreed, no one knows how Trump will govern. Cept personal is policy. Should come into focus as appointments get announced.

Events and trends with material conditions for context. Numbers are fine for looking back. Not so much looking forward. Let’s leave a little room for artistry that defies the quants.

Dems lost all three branches of government. Quite a hat trick. One of those branches for the next decade or longer. Looks like a wipeout to me but your free to draw a different conclusion.

The neoliberal culture is also coming under heavy shelling. We’ll see this one play out in the months ahead. Dem Corp has become more authoritarian with their heavy censoring, substituting politics with lawfare, jumping in bed with the spooks and Neocons, illiberal primaries.

Nice to see them crash and burn.

The delay of this will only make the damage greater. The reset should have happened with the election of the pretender Obama, IMO.

Trump will have the ability to replace Roberts, Alito and Thomas, all 70 or above if they retire. Maybe even Sotomayor who is also 70 and if reports are correct, in poor health. Although the republicans have more senate seats up for reelection in 2016, 20, vs. 13 for the democrats, I see only 2 seats where the Democrats stand a good chance of switching. Even if they do, that still will leave the republicans in control. Meaning Trump will have 4 years to replace any of the above SCOTUS justices. I do however expect the democrats to regain control of the House in the 2026 midterms, perhaps by very large numbers, blue wave numbers as Americans quickly tire of Trump like they did in his first term as president. They’ll remember why they ousted him back in 2020.

A wipeout, yes, for the time being. But I expect as I stated above a democratic rebound beginning in 2026 and ending up with the presidency again in 2028. There’s nothing anyone can do about the SCOTUS. I was adamantly opposed to then Ex-Democratic major leader, Senator Harry Reid’s precedence setting first use of the nuclear option setting a simple majority for presidential nominees’ approval/confirmation. It brought the democrats a very short-term victory, but a huge defeat as the future from that time to today as it played out, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett are the results of Reid’s actions. Replacements for the 3 SCOTUS justices I mentioned above and possibly a 4th is on the horizon. A decade? Probably more like 2 or 3 decades.

We’ll cope and survive.

I hope you are right. Time will tell, but I certainly will not be holding my breath! If Trump is able to do what he has promised, we will have nothing more to worry about because he will solve all of our problems - we won't even have to vote any more because he will have taken care of that for us!