Going by voting patterns over the last 3 elections, I think you’re right to a certain extent that Americans don’t know what they want, jgw. Republicans want republicans elected; democrats want democrats elected which covers around 60% of the electorate. Who those candidates are, doesn’t matter. As for the rest, it seems they know what they don’t want, which seems to be the party in power.
2016 Trump defeats Clinton republicans retain control of congress
2018 democrats win back the house and senate
2020 Biden defeats Trump democrats retain control of congress
2022 republicans regain control of the house
2024 Trump defeats Harris, republicans retain control of the house, regain control of the senate.
There’s a pattern there. The candidate representing the previous president, loses. The out of power party, the party not of the of the president loses the midterms. Why? Most Americans viewed the sitting president as doing a bad job, the sitting president had over 50% of all Americans disapproving of the job he had done. 2018 54% disapproved of Trump’s job performance, 2020 54% disapproved of Trump’s job performance, 2022 55% disapproved of Biden’s job performance, 2024 56% disapproved of Biden’s job performance. Hence, the party that doesn’t hold the presidency, the out of power party either has made gains in taking back the house or both chambers of congress in the midterms and unseated the party of the president in the presidential election.
Independents, the final 40%. They voted for Trump in 2016 by 4 points, overwhelmingly for democratic candidates by 9 points in the 2018 midterms. Voted for Biden by 13 points in 2020 and republican in the midterms of 2022 by 3 points. The final numbers aren’t in for 2024, they’re pending.
I agree, folks don’t know what they want. But do know what they don’t want and that is the party in power. They’ll vote out the party in power to be replaced by the other party, then vote the other party out to be replaced by the party they voted out in the previous election. This continues, I expect the democrats to retake back the house in 2026 and return to the presidency in 2028 along with taking control of both chambers of congress. The pattern has been set. At least in the last 3 elections which as far as the midterms are concerned goes back to Obama and 2010 or Bush in 2006 or Bill Clinton in 1994.
As for Harris’s loss, the democrats need to ask and address why their voters didn’t turnout. The democrats had a 3-point advantage in party affiliation, party identification over the republicans. But the republicans held a 4-point advantage among those voters who actually turned out. The democratic base was a bit larger, but less in it came to those who voted. Republican held the advantage 35-31 over the democrats among actual voters. But the republicans has always been able to get their base out, the democrats, not so much.
