Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

Dunno about midterms. ‘Events, dear boy, events.
Yeah, I was referring to the judicial as a decade or longer. Republicans will have the candidates for nominating ready to go and you can bet they’ll be young and ideological.

My suspicions get raised when someone uses ‘we’…

It will be interesting to watch how T bone governs this time. If I was laying a bet, I think he’ll do a fair amount of heavy betrayal with his new found working class base while crowing about his achievements for them. Not unlike the Democrats.
For all the petty bougouise base he’s enjoyed since 2016, I see more goods getting delivered. For the plutocrats, his real base and people, much more in the forms of tax breaks, contracts and deregulation.

So business as usual for the most part, with some rice bowls getting cracked while others get filled, towards the top of the class ladder.

Where things stand as of tonight. Senate Rep 52, Dem 47. Pennsylvania hasn’t been called. McCormick leads Casey by 30,000 votes with 99% of the votes counted. But it’s close enough to go to a recount. It’ll be some time before Pennsylvania becomes official.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/r...flipped=false&filter-remaining=false

The house will probably take longer, the republicans have a 216-207 lead with 10 races yet to be called or determined. Those uncalled races are split 5-5 as to who holds the seats now. The republicans have flipped 7 previously held democratic seats, the democrats have flipped 5 Republican held seats.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/r...flipped=false&filter-remaining=false

The links I provided are usually updated twice daily in case anyone wants to closely follow or obtain the most recent results. Here’s something weird. In the 5 swing states that had both a presidential and senate race, the democrat won 4 of those 5 states with Pennsylvania being the 5th, too close to call.

Michigan Democrat Slotkin won the senate seat by 20,000 votes, Harris lost Michigan by 40,000 votes
Wisconsin Democrat Baldwin won the senate seat by 27,000 votes, Harris lost Wisconsin by 30,000 votes
Nevada Democrat Rosen won the senate seat by 22,000 votes, Harris lost Nevada by 47,000 votes
Arizona Democrat Gallego won the senate seat by 73,000 votes, Harris lost Arizona by 185,000 votes
Pennsylvania – See senate above. Harris lost Pennsylvania by 134,000 votes

A whole lot of ticket splitting took place in these 5 swing states. Voting republican for president, voting democratic down ballot. Which is highly unusual as normally the senate seat goes the same as the presidential. Having one or two is understandable. But four and possibly all 5 depending on Pennsylvania. I can’t remember the last time that happened if it ever did.

“What happened” is far too many voters thought an emotionally damaged, silver-spooned, sociopathic male game show host with 34 felony convictions, and a fondness for fascism, ought to run and make decisions for our country. And that, a seasoned career government official with judicial and legislative experience and a middle class upbringing should not – especially given she’s a woman.

Pretty simple really: America does not want a woman POTUS.

As far as I can tell NOBODY has the slightest idea of what America wants. I have been watching the TV, and listening to voters, etc. and THEY have no idea what they want. All they knew was pretty simple. One side was for huge change and the other was for kindofa fairie tale change. The voted for the huge change. Now we will go through another Trump time. The difference is that, this time, they are ready to take charge and I, for one, wonder if I will ever even have the chance to have another vote. Its gonna be VERY interesting! Take those who voted trump because the democrats supported the evil Jewish state. Now they are find that they voted for a group that are now saying, and agreeing with Netanyaho, that EVERYTHING belongs to the Jewish state! Interesting stuff to be sure.

I nothing else, the next 4 years is going to be seriously educational. I guess we all deserve it? I guess my real question is whether we all survive.

Forgot - My thoughts on the Democratic party and my constant whining about them were not that far off. It will be interesting to see if they change even a little bit. I should also probably mention that my questionable faith in the wisdom of the American Voters has not let me down.

America will get what it deserves in the next four years. It was warned.

Going by voting patterns over the last 3 elections, I think you’re right to a certain extent that Americans don’t know what they want, jgw. Republicans want republicans elected; democrats want democrats elected which covers around 60% of the electorate. Who those candidates are, doesn’t matter. As for the rest, it seems they know what they don’t want, which seems to be the party in power.

2016 Trump defeats Clinton republicans retain control of congress
2018 democrats win back the house and senate
2020 Biden defeats Trump democrats retain control of congress
2022 republicans regain control of the house
2024 Trump defeats Harris, republicans retain control of the house, regain control of the senate.

There’s a pattern there. The candidate representing the previous president, loses. The out of power party, the party not of the of the president loses the midterms. Why? Most Americans viewed the sitting president as doing a bad job, the sitting president had over 50% of all Americans disapproving of the job he had done. 2018 54% disapproved of Trump’s job performance, 2020 54% disapproved of Trump’s job performance, 2022 55% disapproved of Biden’s job performance, 2024 56% disapproved of Biden’s job performance. Hence, the party that doesn’t hold the presidency, the out of power party either has made gains in taking back the house or both chambers of congress in the midterms and unseated the party of the president in the presidential election.

Independents, the final 40%. They voted for Trump in 2016 by 4 points, overwhelmingly for democratic candidates by 9 points in the 2018 midterms. Voted for Biden by 13 points in 2020 and republican in the midterms of 2022 by 3 points. The final numbers aren’t in for 2024, they’re pending.

I agree, folks don’t know what they want. But do know what they don’t want and that is the party in power. They’ll vote out the party in power to be replaced by the other party, then vote the other party out to be replaced by the party they voted out in the previous election. This continues, I expect the democrats to retake back the house in 2026 and return to the presidency in 2028 along with taking control of both chambers of congress. The pattern has been set. At least in the last 3 elections which as far as the midterms are concerned goes back to Obama and 2010 or Bush in 2006 or Bill Clinton in 1994.

As for Harris’s loss, the democrats need to ask and address why their voters didn’t turnout. The democrats had a 3-point advantage in party affiliation, party identification over the republicans. But the republicans held a 4-point advantage among those voters who actually turned out. The democratic base was a bit larger, but less in it came to those who voted. Republican held the advantage 35-31 over the democrats among actual voters. But the republicans has always been able to get their base out, the democrats, not so much.

As far as I can tell there is one thing that just may turn EVERYTHING upside down. I suspect we will have an election in 2 years, and the Democrats might even get control of the house. The problem is what happens in the next 4 year election. Given what Mr. Trump has said, and he gets his way, there will be NO 4th year election! My own suspicion is that is where we will learn what we have to look forward to - or maybe not............

Oh, one more thought. Mr. Trump seems to be going a bit downhill. He just might die of old age. Should that happen we will have to deal with his Vice President. Now THERE is something to consider!

And that is one scary thought.

You guys are far too optimistic.

Sen Rubio is the only nominee who can even be remotely considered as qualified for the job.

Huckabee will only exacerbate the ME situation ... perhaps even encouraging Netanyahu to expand the attacks.
Rep Stefanic will side with the Russians and perhaps the Chinese against NATO allies and SEATO allies.
Fox "News" host Hegseth will absolutely dismantle the military and turn it on Americans
Rep Gabbard will promote Russian propaganda against US citizens and NATO allies in Trump's quest to sell America to the highest bidder.
Kennedy will cripple government efforts to keep America safe from disease ... the enemy within ... within the next administration.
OZ will sell out Medicare and Medicaid to MAGA billionaires for their personal profit at the expense of one of America's safety nets.
Rep Gaetz will gut DoJ of anyone who actually believes in the rule of law

What is the motif? Complete deconstruction of the federal government and the sacred Constitutional mandate to provide security and services for it's citizenry. Two years???? Really. The federal government will be completely crippled within 2 years and MAGA will be ecstatic. The courts will be filled with political MAGA hacks ... and you think an election in 2 years will roll that back? Does anyone think the SC would issue an opinion running contrary to the Trump agenda? If they came to their Constitutional senses and struck down any agenda item, who would enforce the ruling?

Someone may argue some of these folks will not get through the Senate. Well it doesn't matter. They are just cutouts ... easily replaced by someone with the same extreme agenda who will be confirmed or be acting or recess appointed. It has begun. The Constitution is being destroyed and I see little that can return it to it's former state. Some may argue there will be an election in 2 years .... what makes anyone believe there will be one? It couldn't happen in America? Really!!!! We have a sexual predator, convicted felon, and insurrectionist elected as president. It has already happened.

Trump may proclaim he is president for life and who will stop him? There is no one who can stop him from issuing such a fiat.

I see a dystopian future as a 3rd world country ... easy prey to the strong man countries willing to take advantage.

I see floating a few billion dollars (why not, open corruption is now legal!) to a few strategically selected Republicans, regular conservative guys, in the House and Senate to convince them to switch parties, at least temporarily, in order to wipe out the MAGA majorities in Congress.

How many does it take for each chamber? @Perotista, you probably know those figures.

I wonder if Adam and Liz might be in favor of a plan like that.