Here something else to think about, history. No sitting president has won reelection, nor his replacement won the election with an overall job approval of below 50%. Trump had history on his side. 8 elections where a sitting president’s overall job approval was below 50%, 8 losses for the sitting president or his party’s replacement or the candidate that replaced the sitting president. The list
1952 Truman 33%, his replacement Stevenson lost to Eisenhower
1968 LBJ 43%, his replacement Humphrey lost to Nixon
1976 Ford 45%, Ford lost reelection to Carter
1980 Carter 37%, Carter lost reelection to Reagan
1992 G.H.W. Bush 34%, Bush lost reelection to Bill Clinton
2008 G.W. Bush 28%, his replacement McCain lost to Obama
2020 Trump 43%, Trump lost reelection to Biden
2024 Biden 41%, his replacement Harris lost to Trump.
Harris came darn close to upsetting the historical apple cart. Just losing the popular vote by 1.8 points. That was the third closest presidential election since 1900. Only 1960 and 2000 were closer. But as the old saying goes, close only counts in horseshoes, grenades and nuclear warfare.
