Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Trump 2.0

Remember - Harris was a VICE president. VICE presidents do not have a life of their own, nor, I suspect, a thought of their own. They are there for one purpose - back the president and stand in if necessary. That being the case, and being aware that she is a vice president she could not do that as it would be going off away from her president. The while Kamala Harris thing has given me some humor. Vice presidents actually do very little and ITS ALWAYS at the behest of the president.

All that being said I fear that Biden should never have stuck with Netanyahoo. That man is a monster and a charged criminal by his own government. Apparently the only reason he is not in prison is because he continues to hold his position. Biden dragged her right down that path. There were thoughts expressed (few and far between). Anyway, I think you are probably right. That deal is a serious mess and we were right in middle of it.

VP Harris was running for POTUS. She had better have her own ideas.

VP once a sitting president finished his time in office don’t have a winning record when running to replace a president of his own party. A 20% winning record
1960 Nixon lost to JFK
1968 Humphrey lost to Nixon
1988 G.H.W Bush beat Dukakis*
2000 Gore lost to G.W. Bush
2024 Harris lost to Trump

Probably because Americans want a change. In fact, only one candidate, G.H.W. Bush from the party of the sitting president won the election to replace that sitting president of their own party. The list not counting presidents who lost reelection, just their replacements.

1952 Truman’s replacement Stevenson lost to Eisenhower
1960 Eisenhower’s replacement Nixon lost to JFK
1968 LBJ’s replacement Humphrey lost to Nixon
1988 Reagan’s replacement G.H.W. Bush beat Dukakis*
2000 Bill Clinton’s replacement Gore lost G.W. Bush
2008 G.W. Bush’s replacement McCain lost Obama
2016 Obama’s replacement Hillary Clinton lost to Trump
2024 Biden’s replacement Harris lost to Trump

Replacement winning percentage 12.5%. If it weren’t for G.H.W. Bush winning in 1988, both VP’s and a sitting president’s replacement would be a O’fer. It also seems that a high or a low favorable or a high or low job performance has nothing to do with either the VP winning or a sitting presidents replacement winning. Eisenhower, Bill Clinton, Obama were all very popular presidents, yet their replacement lost. Truman, LBJ, G.W. Bush, Biden were all unpopular presidents which their replacement lost.

This is what happens when you stay home and not vote: Trump propses 'clean out' of Gaza citizens

Yep, you are probably right but that is, as far as I can tell, the way it was and will probably be that way if another vice tries to run. Comes under the heading of sh?? happens..........

Rick, I’ve been trying to figure out why so many previous democratic voters decided to stay home and not vote last year. Numbers to ponder, party affiliation from 2000-2020 the democrats averaged 4-point advantage over the republicans 33-29% with the rest classified as independents. Among those who actually voted the democrats averaged 37% of the electorate who went to the polls, the republicans 33% from 2000-2020. Independents are notorious for not voting as they don’t have the same stake in the elections as the two major parties do. The two major parties own the candidates, they chose the candidates, independents own nothing and choose no one.

Then 2024 happened. Party affiliation was even at 28% for each major party. The first time the democrats didn’t have a distinct advantage in party affiliation since FDR first came on the scene or should I say, Herbert Hoover. For the first time more republicans went to the polls and voted last year than democrats since Hoover. 35% of those who voted were republicans, 31% democrats, the rest independent which Harris won 51-48. But that was a far cry from the numbers Biden rang up in 2020 winning independents 54-41 over Trump with 5% voting third party.

Trump won because previous democratic voters stayed home, the drop percentage wise among those who actually voted dropped from 37% democrats in 2020 down to 31% in 2024. Some 8 million previous democratic voters didn’t vote. The republican percentages remained the same at 35% of those who voted in both 2020 and 2024. Throw in the fact Trump won first times voters last year, that explains Biden defeating Trump by 7 million votes in 2020 to Harris losing by 2 million.

I know what happened, that is in the numbers. I don’t know why approximately 8 million previous democratic voters would decide to stay home last year. I have theories, but no hard numbers or facts to back up those theories. I’m continuing to work on those. But some interesting tidbits.

Voter enthusiasm among democrats to get out and vote for Harris was much lower than the enthusiasm republicans had to go to the polls and vote for Trump. Party affiliation or the base of both major parties were even in 2024. That a first since Gallup and Pew Research began keeping track of party affiliation back in 1948. The democrats always have had the party affiliation advantage, some years as much as 20-point advantage over the republicans. But that was back in the big tent era of the democratic party when both major parties had their conservative and liberal wings. There’s plenty of other indications why previous democratic voters stayed home, but I’ll leave it as is for now.

I did.

There are no enforcement mechanisms. Each branch of government can ignore the dictums of the others. Until Trump there has been a tacit but implicit acknowledgement to respect the other branches of government and their singular purviews. The executive branch understood only the legislative branch made law or appropriated monies, and the legislative branch understood the executive branch executed the laws they made. Under Trump this is no longer the case. Before I could type this comment, Trump has already declared a national emergency on the border, which in effect expanded executive authority and subsumed some legislative prerogatives. As he learns of his immense power within his presidential duties, he will no doubt continue to expand his executive authority and the auxiliary legislative powers imbued by and with the imprimatur of the SC.

What is important about this is the fact the SC has no judicial mechanism to enforce any ruling or opinion they may publish. If Trump doesn't like their opinion, he can ignore it. Judicial harsh language will become just wasted printed type. If Congress says Trump can't make law, he will declare another and in this case unspecified national emergency which would encompass increased legislative duties. What can Congress do? Write a law which can and would be ignored by Trump.

What all of this means is Trump has become in effect a king. I warned of this possibility long ago and now it appears to be a reality.

My wife thinks that everybody who voted for Trump will vote the other way in two years. I am not convinced that is going to happen. My own thought is that those who voted for Trump in the first place are not the brightest minds in the nation and I doubt that anybody knows what they are going to do. Now add in that the Democrats are going to have to do something. So far, I fear, that has been an ongoing disaster. I thought I would add this and see who agrees with what in this instance. I also wonder if it will make any difference, one way or the other.

Just a thought............

If I dig out my old crystal ball, 2026 should be a banner year for the democrats with a big depends in front of that banner year. MAGA makes up approximately 25% of the electorate, they’re not going to change their votes. You do have another quarter of the electorate who voted for Trump who aren’t MAGA Trumpers. The read I’m getting is Trump is governing only for the MAGA portion of the country. If he continues doing that, look for the democrats to regain the house in 2026 by a large margin. Trump is getting high marks on his job approval so far, but that is because he’s tackling the illegal immigration problem which was the second most important issue in last years election. Trump has issued a couple of EO’s on the illegal immigration problem, but he didn’t really need to do that, all he needed to do was enforce the laws already on the books.

Inflation was the top issue, rising prices. No EO is going to solve this issue. I don’t think there’s much the government can do about inflation other than let it run its course. Inflation is currently at 2.9% and falling. Trump took office at the right time. Give it another 6 months or so, inflation should tame itself. If Biden had six more months to go on his presidency, he would have gotten the credit.

But Trump is a vindictive man with revenge in his heart. Even if Trump is successful on illegal immigration and rising prices, him taking his revenge out on his political opponents will doom the GOP. Most Americans don’t like radical change, they don’t like being taken out of their comfort zone which is what Trump is doing so far.

Correct

Again correct

Yes in a way Pres Biden did not do. He is advertising how many people he is deporting .... Pres Biden did not do that in spite of the fact he also deported people. The only EO which made a real difference is, he stopped legal immigration, and that is something Pres Biden did not do.

Yep ... and it doesn't matter if the rate of inflation slows down to acceptable levels. The effect of prices increases from inflation are and will continue to be felt, until the market adjusts to increased supplies and outstripping demands. There remains the question of how will producers feel the effect? If increased production means lower wholesale prices, don't expect the producers to continue losing money to appease Trump. I don't know where inflation is heading but I don't expect it to be lower than FED expectations and certainly not lower than voter expectations.

Not sure that has any meaning for the average voter. They're not affected and otherwise it is an abstraction dealt with by those who think of the political and philosophical ramifications.


They have begun the deconstruction of the administrative state and apparently weaponization of government has become de facto reality. At this moment I do not believe Democracy will survive.