Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Trump 2.0

I don’t know why democratic voters didn’t show up last year. Theories abound, but there no exit polling on those who didn’t vote as to the reasons why. But here’s something to ponder, Democratic senate candidates won in Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona while Trump was winning each of those states. Which means there were a lot of split ticket voters, voting for Trump, then voting for the democratic senate candidate.
Trump won Michigan by 80,000 votes, Dem Slotkin won by 19,000
Trump won Wisconsin by 30,000votes, Dem Baldwin won by 30,000
Trump won Nevada by 46,000 votes, Dem Rosen won by 25,000
Trump won Arizona by 188,000 votes, Dem Gallego won by 81,000

That’s one heck of a lot of ticket splitters. Those voting for Trump, then voting democratic for the senate. Even if Harris had won all 4 of those states, Trump would have won in the electoral college 270-268. We’ll never know why those democratic voters from 2020 decided to stay home in 2024, but chance are most of those ticket splitters in the above 4 states were independents.

Arizona, Trump won independents 53-44 over Harris, Gallego won independents 48-47 over Lake
Michigan, Trump won independents 50-46 over Harris, Slotkin won independents 51-44 over Rogers
Nevada, independents split 48-48 between Trump and Harris, Rosen won independents 48-42 over Brown
Wisconsin, Harris edged Trump among independents 49-48, Baldwin won independents 50-47 over Hovde

Republican in all 4 states won the turnout battle the same as they did nationwide.

Many Palestinian voters and Gen Z'ers are were upset about the Gaza situation fit this category.

Rick, I went back and looked at Michigan since they have the largest Arab-American population at 208,000. That counts both adults and children which would make up the voting age population of Arab-Americans at around 100-150,000 taking a SWAG. That roughly 100-150,000 out of 5.6 million votes cast in Michigan. The breakdown via race didn’t include Arab-Americans, just white, black, Hispanic, Asian and other. Other which would include Arab-Americans made up 3% of the Michigan vote which went to Trump 59-37. Gen Z, 18-29 year olds, made up 12% of those who voted, they also went to Trump 50-47.

Michigan views of the presidential candidates, 48% of Michigan voters viewed Trump favorably, 50% unfavorably. Harris was viewed 45% favorably, 52% unfavorably by Michigan voters. In Michigan, the Israel/Palestine or Gaza showed up as 27% support for Israel, 29% support for Gaza which is a bit different from the national support of 35% support for Israel/30% for Gaza. In both cases you have a lot of not sure, no opinion or both or equally.. But it’s not surprising that democrats support Gaza, republicans Israel, independents slightly support Israel more than Gazan’s by 5 points. Trump also won first time voters 50-44 over Harris in Michigan.

This is only Michigan, but Michigan is the state with the highest Arab-American population.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/michigan/general/president/0

Out of the 15 top issues in last year’s election, the Israel/Palestine or Gaza or Hama War didn’t register which means less than 1% of the population listed it as an important issue in deciding who to vote for. The top 4, Inflation/rising prices 24%, Immigration 13%, Jobs and the Economy 11%, Abortion 9%. Why inflation and rising prices along with the economy and jobs aren't lumped together is beyond me. Inflation falls under the general heading of the economy, at least that’s how I view it which would mean the economy in general, including inflation topped the list at 35%.

I am concerned with the lack of concern shown by a super, super-majority of Americans. This majority is convinced that nothing has materially changed that they need to concern themselves about. Or they are aware of the change and support it 100%.

They seem to fail to see that we are entering an epoch that has never been seen before in this country.

The closest analog is the Post-Reconstruction South when a single party in many states (and not just in the South) wielded unfettered political and economic control through disenfranchisement, control of the media, terror, murder, and economic punishment. But even then, it was not the entire country and people "could" attempt to better their condition by fleeing to a different state - though even this was difficult if local and/or state authorities decided that they didn't want to lose one's labor.

Today, we have a president with totally compliant majorities in both houses, a complicit Supreme Court super-majority, and a national media that is rapidly falling in line. No one in the Republican Party will go against him. Lower court orders are ignored or circumvented. The vaunted constitutional constraints are only constraints if someone is willing to be constrained or other power centers are willing to use their power.

One-man control of the federal government's purse gives that person almost unlimited power. The power to mete out trillions of dollars in federal money to those who toe the line (industry, universities, charities, states, local governments, individuals) and refusing it to those who do not should not be underestimated. People and institutions will naturally pre-comply with the regime. This is already happening today and will be the default within a few weeks.

This regime has come a long way toward purging the federal bureaucracy of non-MAGA decision makers and experts, removing another roadblock to their agenda. Once Patel is in place at the FBI, the purging of the upper echelons of the military is next.

There is effectively zero pushback to this agenda. Mere handfuls of people show up to protest these actions. The president has the highest approval ratings he's ever had. They will only go up. It is not rocket science to construct a push poll.

This leads to elections. What makes people believe that the regime will allow free elections? Using intimidation to cut off the opposition's access to funding is already occurring. He has said (and Bondi has confirmed) that he will sic the Justice Department and IRS on his political enemies. Believe him. Once he's labeled and indicted some high-profile Democrats as treasonous, it is a very short step to outlaw the Democratic Party as an anti-American party in the same way the Communist Party was outlawed. Sure, elections will be held, and some meaningless seats may go to an opposition candidate. But the actual outcome will never be in doubt; and, just like in all well-run autocracies, opposition will quickly disappear into the woodwork.

Call me Chicken Little, but similar things have happened before. All good things come to an end.

That is one thing that keeps me up. So far the TV continues working over Trump but that can stop and then I am not sure what happens. But, what is happening seems to be getting folks to waken a bit. How about firing all the nuclear weapon folks and, after they did it, folks got upset and, now, they are trying to find them and re-hire them. All in all a complete mess of wonder. They just keep on, and on. The next voting will be, I think, interesting. One thing Trump really pays attention to is his support. I suspect its descending day by day. If that happens then if you think this is confusion just wait.

A possibly interesting thing about this one. Seems that those that fired the people in charge of our nuclear weapons were then told to get them back on the job. The interesting part of this one is that, apparently, when they fire somebody they destroy any and all paperwork. This meant, in this case, that they had no idea how to contact those fired to get back on the job.

Kinda inspiring.............. You just gotta appreciate it all..................

My fond hope is that our democracy can last for two years and the dems wake up enough to take over both houses so they can do something about the supreme court, etc.

You're not chicken little. I have feared this for the last 2 years. I have tried reasoning with the MAGA supporters, but there are no words that will work. It is a cult! Plain and simple.

Unfortunately, the experiment will soon be ending in failure! Our democracy is a failure. I doubt that anything can stop it now! Project 2025 had it all planned out. That is how it is happening so quickly. I had hoped for much more push back from those that matter - like the house of representatives, but the GOP is 100% MAGA compliant. I doubt that the one remaining branch can halt/fix anything without the help of congress.

I know and understand why folks voted for Trump last year. History leaves no doubt. What I don’t understand is the total lack of attention by the public as a whole to what Trump is doing and has done since he began his second term. It’s like most Americans don’t care. Which in a way shouldn’t surprise? Americans tend to give any new president a honeymoon period where the new president can do almost anything he wants with no repercussions. It’s only after 3-4 months in office do the people begin to hold the new president accountable for his actions or deeds. Knowing this, I still find it very hard to fathom that most Americans have given Trump a free pass so far. A month into his second term, Trump has a plurality of Americans approving of the job he has done. This I never expected.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

I shouldn’t be surprised as Trump has defied conventional wisdom when it comes to politics. I’m at a total loss.

I have to wonder how much the dumbing down of our society has to do with it. I know my local schools do not teach civics and haven't for years.

I have been posting on Facebook with some civic information thinking maybe many people think the President does have power over all. I've been posting topics like "Some signs that you might be in a cult", "What are the Top 10 Elements of the Authoritarian Playbook", "6 RULES for Survival under an Authoritarian Regime", "What is a constitutional crisis" just to name a few.

I don't have a ton of friends, about 150 +/-. Only one or two of these postings brought one or two likes. Some have brought many arguments from my MAGA friends. I have gotten zero comments supporting my posts and all comments were supporting the MAGA agenda.

Maybe people don't want to get involved in the MAGA bashing that occurs any time someone speaks against their beliefs! I doubt that anything that Trump has done is being felt by my friends yet. I hope once they start to feel what is happening they will have a reaction, but hope it isn't too late by then. But, maybe the pain won't bring them to reacting anyways. Who knows.

That’s a good point. What Trump has done so far hasn’t had time to be felt among the masses. Quite a lot of folks don’t get involved or pay attention to the workings of government until it affects them personally. Not paying attention or not caring seems like the norm when it comes to government operations. We live in an era where on average 45% of all eligible Americans don’t vote in presidential elections which rises to 60% on average not voting in the midterms.

That’s a lot of Americans letting other people decide who their elected officials will be and how our government is run and operated. This apathy is caused by more than just a lack of civics being taught in school.

MAGA does not care what happens. They will simply make all manner of excuses and then sing praises to the Savior of America. As for the non-MAGA Trump voters ... these folks chose to cut their genitals off instead of saving Democracy ... so don't expect them to save anyone.