Independents have been all over the place, they swing wildly between parties. Harris did win the independent vote last year 49-46 over Trump. That wasn’t enough to over come the huge drop in democratic voters that didn’t show up at the polls. That 3-point margin was far below Biden’s winning of the independent in 2020 by a 54-41 margin or by 13 points. Democratic voters in 2020 made up 37% of those who voted vs. only 31% in 2024. In 2016 independents went for Trump 46-42 over Clinton with 6% voting third party against both major party candidates. This recent history or the independent vote.

2000 independents voted for G.W. Bush 47-46 over Gore; independents voted for Republican congressional candidates 49-47 over Democratic congressional candidates.

2002 independents voted for Republican congressional candidates 51-45 over Democratic congressional candidates.

2004 independents voted for Kerry by a 49-48 margin over G.W. Bush. Independents voted for Republican congressional candidates by a 50-46 margin over Democratic congressional candidates.

2006 independents voted Democratic by a margin of 57-39 over Republicans with 4% voting third party.

2008 independents voted for Obama by a 52-44 margin over McCain. Independents voted 52-45 for Democratic congressional candidates.

2010 independents voted 56-37 Republican over Democrat with 7% voting third party.

2012 independents voted for Romney by a 51-48 margin. Independents voted 50-49 for Republican congressional candidates.

2014 independents voted 54-42 for Republican congressional candidates.

2016 Independents voted for Trump 46-42 with 12% voting third party. In congressional election independents voted Republican 51-47.

2018 Independents voted for the Democratic congressional candidates by a 54-44 margin with 4% voting third party.

2020 Independents voted for Biden 54-41 with 5% voting third party. In Congressional elections independents voted Democratic 49-48.

2022 Independents voted for Democratic congressional candidates by a 49-47 margin.

2024 independents voted for Harris 49-46 with 5% voting third party. Independents voted democratic in the congressional elections 49-48.

Notice how wildly independents can swing. Presidential, going for Obama by 8 points to going for Romney by 3, then Trump by 4, to Biden by 13 and finally to Harris by 3. Midterms experience much wider swings. The big swings from an 18-point democratic advantage in 2006 to a 19-point republican advantage in 2010. A 12-point GOP advantage in 2014 to a 10-point democratic edge in 2018 shrinking to a 2-point democratic edge in 2022.

Independents can be summed up using generalities, if things are going good, they’ll vote for the incumbent or party in power. If they deem things are going bad, they’ll vote for the challenger or the party out of power.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.