I don’t know why democratic voters didn’t show up last year. Theories abound, but there no exit polling on those who didn’t vote as to the reasons why. But here’s something to ponder, Democratic senate candidates won in Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona while Trump was winning each of those states. Which means there were a lot of split ticket voters, voting for Trump, then voting for the democratic senate candidate.
Trump won Michigan by 80,000 votes, Dem Slotkin won by 19,000
Trump won Wisconsin by 30,000votes, Dem Baldwin won by 30,000
Trump won Nevada by 46,000 votes, Dem Rosen won by 25,000
Trump won Arizona by 188,000 votes, Dem Gallego won by 81,000
That’s one heck of a lot of ticket splitters. Those voting for Trump, then voting democratic for the senate. Even if Harris had won all 4 of those states, Trump would have won in the electoral college 270-268. We’ll never know why those democratic voters from 2020 decided to stay home in 2024, but chance are most of those ticket splitters in the above 4 states were independents.
Arizona, Trump won independents 53-44 over Harris, Gallego won independents 48-47 over Lake
Michigan, Trump won independents 50-46 over Harris, Slotkin won independents 51-44 over Rogers
Nevada, independents split 48-48 between Trump and Harris, Rosen won independents 48-42 over Brown
Wisconsin, Harris edged Trump among independents 49-48, Baldwin won independents 50-47 over Hovde
Republican in all 4 states won the turnout battle the same as they did nationwide.
