This latter half, the non-MAGA half who voted for Trump, was their vote actually for Trump or against Biden, his administration which Harris as VP was part of and the democrats for how they governed the last four years? A situation where any challenger to the incumbent would have done. We’re talking about a sitting president with a 39% overall job approval, 57% disapproval. A sitting president whose handling of the economy was 39% approve/60% disapprove, immigration 33% approval, 65% disapproval, inflation at 34% approval, 64% disapproval. This is what that latter half, the non-MAGA half voted against, their vote wasn’t for Trump in that they wanted Trump to win, they just wanted the democrats, Biden and Harris gone. Trump just happened to be the challenger to the sitting administration.
You’re correct rporter, this wasn’t a normal election. The distasted and dislike of Trump was still present. Given Biden and company’s numbers, last years election should have been a cake walk for the republicans, a landslide which it wasn’t. There’s been 8 presidential election since the end of WWII where the sitting president had an overall job approval of below 50%. The sitting president or the sitting president’s replacement lost all 8 elections. That’s history. Carter 1980 and Biden last year had almost identical numbers. Trump won by 1.5 points to Reagan’s 11-point win in the popular vote. Reagan margin probably would have close to 15 points if Anderson hadn’t garnered 6% of the vote. Reagan carried 44 states, Trump 31, Reagan won the electoral college, 489-49, Trump won 312-226. The republicans in 1980 gained 35 house seats, the republicans lost two house seats last year, the GOP gained 12 senate seats in 1980 to 4 for the republicans last year.
Although Trump won, he prevented a landslide win for the republicans as their nominee. Trump made last year’s election a very close election when historical numbers state that election should have been a wipeout for the GOP as Reagan and the Republicans did to Jimmy Carter and the democrats in 1980. Trump benefited from our two-party system. When a voter is totally dissatisfied with the party/candidate in power, there’s no choice but to vote for the other party/candidate even if the voter doesn’t want that other party/candidate in power. There’s no viable third choice for the voters to vote against both candidates/parties. They’re left with voting for the candidate/party they want to lose the least.
Interesting poll taken on 29 Oct 2024, prefer Harris over Trump 39%, prefer Trump over Harris 40%, prefer both equally 20%. Now if you take prefer both equally to also mean you prefer neither one, that poll makes more sense as there was no way to vote against either one other than staying home. The two-party system. Which voter turnout dropped from 63% in 2020 down to 59% in 2024. 3 million less voters in 2024 than in 2020 although those eligible to vote increased by 7 million.
However, the seeds for a banner midterm for the democrats are already sown, give them time to sprout.
