Trump had that same large group who loved and supported him during his first term. Trump’s actions led to 42 seat gain in the house in the midterms and a loss to Biden in 2020. In the 2018 midterms, 8% of those who voted for Trump in 2016 voted democratic. 7% of those who voted for Trump in 2016 voted for Biden in 2020. But in 2024, 5% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 voted for Trump while 4% of those who voted for Trump in 2020 voted for Harris. The big difference wasn’t so much in voters who switched, it was the drop in the percentage of democratic voters who went to the polls. From 37% among those who voted in 2020 down to 31% while republicans remained at 35% of those who voted in each election.
I, unlike most of you if not all, I don’t blame those who voted for Trump. I blame the democratic voters of 2016 and 2020 who stayed home in 2024. Democratic voters made up 31% of those who voted, Harris received 95% of them. Democratic voters made up 37% of those who voted in 2020, Biden received 94% of them. I’m still trying to figure out why those previous democratic voters stayed home in 2024 which is hard to do since there are no exit polls of those who didn’t vote. Only theories advanced by the political pundits and prognosticators. Although usually the smaller of the two major parties, the republicans have a better history of getting their folks to the polls than the democrats. Which was definitely the case last year.
