The economy has been the number one issue in almost every recent presidential election. A good economy the incumbent gets reelected or his replacement as in the case of G.H.W. Bush wins the next election. A bad economy usually means the challenger wins. Recently Reagan, Bill Clinton, Obama rode a bad economy into the White House. Those elections weren’t close. So, yes, the price of eggs has quite a lot to do in determining who wins. But I prefer going by a sitting president’s overall job approval. History shows no sitting president has won reelection nor has his replacement won when a sitting president’s overall job approval was below 50%. The list.

1952 Truman 33%, his replacement Stevenson lost to Eisenhower
1968 LBJ 43%, his replacement Humphrey lost to Nixon
1976 Ford 45%, Ford lost reelection to Carter
1980 Carter 37%, Carter lost reelection to Reagan
1992 G.H.W. Bush 34%, Bush lost reelection to Bill Clinton
2008 G.W. Bush 28%, his replacement McCain lost to Obama
2020 Trump 43%, Trump lost reelection to Biden
2024 Biden 39%, his replacement Harris lost to Trump.

I also believe that letting Trump be Trump is the best strategy at this point in time. The democrats don’t have the numbers in congress to challenge Trump and the republicans now, at least legislatively. Since 1 Feb Trump’s overall job approval has dropped from 49.9% down to 46.5% while his disapproval has risen from 46.5% up to 50.7% today. Trump is in a steady decline. One shouldn’t expect a huge jump up or down in this approval/disapproval, it takes time.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating

What we have seen since 1 Feb is no weakening among Republicans who approve and support Trump. He started off at 91% approval and today is at 90%. Trump had no support at all from democrats, starting off at 6% overall job approval which decline slightly to 4% today. Trump had 48% job approval from independents back on 1 Feb which has dropped down to 41% today and is continuing to decline slowly.

I’ll add this rporter, most independents don’t watch FoxNews or any of the cable news networks. Only republicans, MAGA do as most democrats, liberals watch MSNBC or CNN. You’re not going to get either of those two groups to change their minds about Trump. You can however get independents, swing voters to change their minds, they’re up for grabs. Keep in mind the base numbers, MAGA probably makes up only a quarter of the electorate, the republican base 28%. Democrats are also at 28%, independents or swing voters at 43%. Republican and democratic minds on Trump are set in stone. Independents, swing voters, not so much. They can be influenced. The economy or the price of eggs will have the most influence on how this group views Trump which directly affects his overall job approval/disapproval and more important, election results. That is a political reality.

Last edited by perotista; 04/19/25 01:30 PM.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.