The economy or the price of eggs will have the most influence on how this group views Trump which directly affects his overall job approval/disapproval and more important, election results.
In normal times I suspect that would be an accurate statement, but we live in Trump times, where reality is no longer whole but bifurcated into parallel universes where facts are what Trump says they are and a universe where every statement is tested for validity. The economy SHOULD be the driving force but I also suspect immigration has and will have considerable impact on not just the MAGA Party members but on many independents. The economy is one of the threads which has always been part of the fabric of determination for the electorate. However occasionally the nasty specter of bigotry in a variety of forms rears its head. America has a history steeped in xenophobia to outright racism. Currently it has become a phenomenon among the developed countries. We can no longer simply say it is the economy stupid, but are compelled to consider there may be a complex driving force, perhaps one contingent on or predicated by the other.
This is why I suspect, and I am only speculating based on proposition there will be free and fair elections in 26 and 28, the issues for independents will be binary. Think about how Trump has pushed the limits of his deportation campaign beyond the confines of the pages of the Constitution. Absolutely for the MAGA Party he has already accomplished a campaign promise and I suspect for many in the middle they will see it as a plus, regardless of the Constitutional consequences. Thus we would have competing issues vying for independent votes.
As you mentioned, which is probably true and valid, the bases of both main parties only consume confirmation news, so what do the independents value as "news"? (As an aside, I do watch or read "news" from Fox, Breitbart, Newsmax, Sky News, etc). Bigotry doesn't need a media outlet nor does the economy need a voice. Will the economy as an issue so outweigh the immigration as to determine the outcome of an election? or is there a third possibility for which you alluded?
Where are all the voters who voted for Biden and didn't vote in 24? Will they be so impacted they will turn out? Will they vote for a better economy or for the rule of law, or both? or will it be all of the above and maybe more?
For me it is all about Democracy. We can survive bad economic, domestic, or foreign policies, but none of it would make a difference unless we still have a Democracy.
