Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Trump 2.0

I am hoping, this time, that our voters actually will come and and vote! I know, its probably not going to happen but hope is just about all we have left in the developing mess. My other concern is whether there will actually be a vote. If we do then I am concerned if we will have a next one as well. I am a bit fearful these days, it just seems to go from bad to worse. One of my concerns is if most of our voting public gives a damn.

We will see!

Voter turnout, especially for the midterms is almost impossible to predict. Over the last 50 years we’ve had a low of 36% turnout in 2014 to a high of 49% in 2018 with most years being right around 40% give or take a point or two either way. The last midterm, 2022, saw a 42% voter turnout, right around average. Mid terms don’t generate the enthusiasm or desire to get out and vote that presidential elections do.

I used to do election forecasts, today we have conflicting indicators for 2026. The democrats lead in the generic congressional ballot by 2 points which as a rule of thumb translates in a gain of 5-10 seats.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/generic-congressional-vote

But going district by district, the democrats have 22 house seats in the competitive column or at risk of switching vs. 18 for the GOP. Using PVI to those 40 seats you end up with a possible 2-5 seat gain for the republicans. These figures mean nothing this far out. Especially with Trump overall job approval in a slow but steady decline. Senate wise, the republicans have only 2 seats in the competitive/at risk column. Maine which seems they’re bound to lose and North Carolina, a pure tossup. With 53 current senate seats being held by republicans, they’re guaranteed to remain in control. Pure tossups for the democrats Georgia and Michigan along with Minnesota and New Hampshire leaning democratic placing 4 democratic seats in the competitive/at risk of switching.

This is the latest based on what we know today. My SWAG for 2026, the democrats regains control of the house, by how much, to be determined while the GOP retains control of the senate.

Having said all that in my previous post, I’ll simplify it when it comes to the 2026 midterms. Trump is the biggest asset the democrats have while Trump is the biggest enemy the republicans have when it comes to the 2026 midterm results. Wait, watch and see.