Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Trump 2.0

I am hoping, this time, that our voters actually will come and and vote! I know, its probably not going to happen but hope is just about all we have left in the developing mess. My other concern is whether there will actually be a vote. If we do then I am concerned if we will have a next one as well. I am a bit fearful these days, it just seems to go from bad to worse. One of my concerns is if most of our voting public gives a damn.

We will see!

Voter turnout, especially for the midterms is almost impossible to predict. Over the last 50 years we’ve had a low of 36% turnout in 2014 to a high of 49% in 2018 with most years being right around 40% give or take a point or two either way. The last midterm, 2022, saw a 42% voter turnout, right around average. Mid terms don’t generate the enthusiasm or desire to get out and vote that presidential elections do.

I used to do election forecasts, today we have conflicting indicators for 2026. The democrats lead in the generic congressional ballot by 2 points which as a rule of thumb translates in a gain of 5-10 seats.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/generic-congressional-vote

But going district by district, the democrats have 22 house seats in the competitive column or at risk of switching vs. 18 for the GOP. Using PVI to those 40 seats you end up with a possible 2-5 seat gain for the republicans. These figures mean nothing this far out. Especially with Trump overall job approval in a slow but steady decline. Senate wise, the republicans have only 2 seats in the competitive/at risk column. Maine which seems they’re bound to lose and North Carolina, a pure tossup. With 53 current senate seats being held by republicans, they’re guaranteed to remain in control. Pure tossups for the democrats Georgia and Michigan along with Minnesota and New Hampshire leaning democratic placing 4 democratic seats in the competitive/at risk of switching.

This is the latest based on what we know today. My SWAG for 2026, the democrats regains control of the house, by how much, to be determined while the GOP retains control of the senate.

Having said all that in my previous post, I’ll simplify it when it comes to the 2026 midterms. Trump is the biggest asset the democrats have while Trump is the biggest enemy the republicans have when it comes to the 2026 midterm results. Wait, watch and see.

Presumably you mean Trump's actions. In each election the media and Democrats have exposed Trump for what he believes and what he has done. In 2016 he won; in 2020 he lost; in 2024 he won. In each Trump was the best asset the Democrats had and at the same time Trump was the biggest enemy of the GOP. While your comment has large elements of truth and validity, I'm not so sure it has any relevance to any future event. At the 100 Day Rally, MAGA was crazy in love with him, despite all his blatant lies. Pundits continue to say he is losing supporters by the droves and yet all I see is people continue to support him. This may be the strangest phenomenon of all time ... approval going down and yet they continue to support him at same level. How can anyone even attempt to fathom the dissonance required to understand this? I mean of course it's obvious ... we are not in normal times ... all previously held political thoughts are out the window ...

The rational thoughts which circle my brain all say you are correct but I also think the entire political landscape has changed. We are in uncharted territory. No longer is Democracy a thing to extol nor is it even considered by everyday voters. We live in an age where facts are what Trump says they are and the electorate will believe him. As I type MAGA Party allies are in a mad dash to pass laws which will disenfranchise potential Democrat voters all meant to ensure the MAGA Party does not lose in 2026. I don't see any large up cry from independents. Between now and the end of the year Trump will have cements his power. He has Congress and soon the courts might as well shutter their doors, as Trump will do whatever he wants, because he runs the US and the world.

o the economy ... listen to what people say ... bear some pain ... wait for the boom.

Actually, I’m focused on independents, the largest voting group. Yes, Trump won in 2016, independents voted for him 46-42 over Clinton with 12% voting third party against both. This was an election where both major party candidates set the record for the lowest favorable and highest unfavorable of any presidential candidate going back to Truman when this was first kept track of. Trump at 36% favorable/60% unfavorable, Clinton at 38% favorable/56% unfavorable has the distinction of being the only presidential candidate to break the 40% barrier. 25% of all Americans disliked and didn’t want neither Trump nor Clinton to become the next president which included 54% of all independents.

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/pol...ans-dislike-presidential-candidates.aspx

Trump won because Hillary ran a very inept campaign and let Trump both out work and out campaign her. She was lazy. There’s much more detail I could provide, but I’ll sum it up as I viewed it as obnoxious, rude, uncouth Trump vs. aloof, elitist, know it all with a fake smile Clinton.

But rude personality and his actions caught up with Trump in 2018 as the democrats gained 42 house seats and once again in 2020 when Biden won. Even with Biden and company having one of the poorest overall job approvals, 42% in 2022, Trump was still disliked by independents and they voted against his chosen candidates which Masters, Walker, Diehl, Cox, Laxalt, Oz, Bolduc, Tshibaka, Palin, Lake, Schmidt, Dixon, Mastriano plus some I can’t remember all lost. Non-Trump Republican chosen candidates received on average 10 points more votes than Trump Republican chosen candidates. The Democrats gained a senate seat, 2 governorships while limiting their house loses to 9 seats.

2024 Harris was up against history. No sitting president has won reelection nor has his replacement won the election when that sitting president had an overall job approval of below 50%, Biden at 39% overall job approval should have resulted in a republican landslide. It didn’t because they ran Trump. Carter and Biden had almost identical numbers, Biden 39% approval, Carter 37% approval. The difference in last year’s election and 1980, Reagan won the popular by 10 points, Trump by 1.5, Reagan received 489 electoral votes, Trump 312, Reagan carried 44 states, Trump 31. The republicans gained 35 house seats in 1980, the republicans lost 2 seats last year, the GOP gained 12 senate seats with Reagan, last year the Republicans gained 4. By choosing Trump to run last year the Republicans deprived themselves of a landslide win.

2026 will probably be a repeat of 2018 and 2028 a repeat of 2020 as independents will most likely vote democratic in huge numbers. Recent history in how independents voted in the Trump era.
2016 46-42 Trump over Clinton 12% voting third party
2018 54-44 for Democratic congressional candidates
2020 54-41 Biden over Trump
2022 49-47 for Democratic congressional candidates with Biden having a 42% overall job approval. Definitely more a vote against Trump than against Biden.
2024 49-46 Harris over Trump with 5% voting third party. Biden and company which Harris was part of had a 39% approval. Although not the 13-point margin Biden won independents in 2020, Harris still won them by 3 points. Again, more of a vote against Trump than a vote against Harris/Biden.

I have been off to Mexico for a couple of weeks. When I get back I see that Trump is at it big time and that the Democrats have yet to even post an ad. I also noted that Trump Is claiming that he has installed a brand new chip manufacturer when, in fact Biden did it What I also noted is that the Democrats are now out there telling everybody that Biden was a bad this and that instead of saying what he actually did. I checked my mail - a pile from folks saying that they are Democrats and wanting money (I didn't give a damn dime). I have yet to get anything from the Democratic party - seems a bit odd to me. All in all the Democratic party, as far as I can tell no longer exists! Its says they have money. One can only wonder. They allow Trump to claim and lie without fighting back, and, apparently, its a kinda so what thing I guess. I also noted that the TV news folk are starting to back off a lot of facts they had been telling about our lord and master and king the the entire world.

Now I hear that Trump, when taking bribes from the Muslim world was supposed to sign something but couldn't because he didn't know where he was and just wanted a big free airplane As far as I can tell that is some kind of secret. Anyway, I go away, and when I come back the only people fighting back are the common folks, pissed off and yelling it to the heavens (which is a VERY good thing! I also understand why they are a bit wondering about the Democrat Party and are beginning to try and move the stones in charge so that they do something. I do know we have a couple of months before the new set of voting is going to take place and we have a Democratic party with no leadership, no message, doing little or nothing or secret stuff nobody knows about and consistently trying to find money (I think). Seems we are currently not setting up to take the house next year although, Lord Knows, the Republicans have been hard providing the path. Hopefully I am dead wrong.

Anyway, happy to be back and wish us all the best.

I haven’t heard anything from the Democratic Party or from anyone asking for money. The democratic party is still in the infighting phase, trying to figure out which faction will take control and provide the leader. The problem is none of the factions has a leader willing to take the lead, the reigns of the democratic party. Which is unique as it usually doesn’t take the party out of power long to unite against the party in power. Certainly, not this long. In 2016 when Trump won, Pelosi grabbed the leadership reigns, united the party very quickly to when the 2018 midterms rolled around, they were ready. The democrats would gain 42 house seats and regain control of the house. There’s no one around today to stop the different factions fighting for control of the democratic party. While they’re doing that, Trump has a free hand to do whatever he wants with little to no opposition. It seems to me the democratic party is still in denial over their loss last year. No one is looking toward the future, like you said, now they’re blaming Biden. I’d say today, the democratic party is too fractured to come with a positive, coherent message. They don’t know how and where they want to go or what they stand for.