I think at this point, Pakistan is far more likely than Iran. On the surface it appears a safer choice: Russia has not promised to come to Pakistan's aid, Pakistan's government is far less stable, and its military far less capable. Furthermore, a war in Pakistan is not the same thing as a war against Pakistan, it's more like a war despite Pakistan.

The Bush Administration will not attack a formidable foe. We have the examples of N. Korea and Russia in our recent memories.

Iran is a formidable foe, and in case anybody hasn't been paying attention, they have another formidable ally right next door, where some 300,000 US citizens are currently residing. if the Bush Administration were interested in playing Russian Roulette with Nouri al Maliki's loyalties, I predict the first shot would be in Iran's favor, and deeply injurious.

Steve
Give us the wisdom to teach our children to love,
to respect and be kind to one another,
so that we may grow with peace in mind.
(Native American prayer)