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As a business owner my prediction has been for the economy to bottom out right about now and after Obamas inauguration to begin a slow upturn. By the end of the first quarter and halfway through April(tax time)we should start seeing an upswing towards whatever the new normal is going to be. If that doesn't happen and If commerce continues to dive bomb after that and into the second and third quarters of next year then it's Katie Bar the Door and possibly a full on depression.